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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    They would have to talk a manufacturer into outfitting all their cars with the appropriate sensors. I think that would be a really hard sell because the basic pitch is "Please install these sensors in all your cars (or at least all the volume selling cars) so I can begin to program my FSD computer that may or may not work". A car manufacturer could do this in-house if they so desired, and I expect the Korean and Chinese auto manufacturers to do so at some point. I think the North American and European auto manufacturers will have to do it eventually, but it may be too late for them.
     
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  2. SO16

    SO16 Active Member

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    Using the app for service works well for me.

    For sales, I know someone really interested in buying an X. The SA said they would call back in a couple hours and haven’t called back in days. SA’s definitely seem to be hit or miss. I had good luck but too many people do not.
     
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  3. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    The presentation gave us some very, very strong indications of what they're working on now. They have a long way to go. They're still working on relatively "easy" stuff.

    Well, given that caveat, yes! But how about the problems which human drivers have trouble with? I've named several, Karen has named others. There are solutions to these, and if we want robotaxis to be conclusively better than human drivers, we have to solve them too.

    You still get the data and train the NN, but you have to know what you're trying to train it to do.

    I could train an NN to be a stereotypical teenage driver. Or a stereotypical Boston driver. Or a stereotypical New Jersey driver. Or a stereotypical Florida driver. Or a really bad driver like the guy who chopped his own head off. I don't think any of this would be desirable. It would be relatively easy to do, and I personally suspect this is what Uber is doing, given that they're Uber ;-)
     
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  4. SOULPEDL

    SOULPEDL Active Member

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    So the that makes sense now. Seems he's just leaving out the battery swaps at 300K mi to make it simple.
     
  5. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

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    Tesla apparently has a camera-agnostic NN, so if Google developed such the placement of the cameras would be less important. Placement and orientation could be likely deduced from the resulting camera footage. That being said, it's far easier to validate your data when it's more consistent ...
     
  6. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    True, but you are not processing the redundant data, and every week somewhere between 5K and 10K data gathering cars are being added, so you're getting more input all the time. So it may not be quite exponential, but it's certainly a good deal better than linear.
     
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  7. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

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    If they didn't ask it out loud, I guess they asked themselves:

    "Are people in this room starting to believe our 4k$ TSLA valuation?"
     
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  8. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    I will be shocked if they are able to attain FSD in 2020, extremely happy if they achieve it in 2021, and still happy if it comes in 2022.
     
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  9. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

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    Gotta agree with the other post that this is bordering on arrogant.

    Landing rockets on barges is indeed hard. From a number of different aspects:

    - The physics dealing with recovering from orbital velocities

    - The mechanical engineering challenges associated with engine design/throttling for descent

    - The system design issues associated with rapid reusability

    - Materials science challenges associated with several of the above

    - The challenges associated with managing descent trajectories in 3D space to hit a floating platform

    - Doing all of the above on a comparatively small budget, and at rapid pace


    In the big picture, none of those were obviously insurmountable. But to suggest it "wasn't hard" is insulting to a group of incredibly talented people that generated a lot of sweat and sleepless nights building that "How not to land a rocket" blooper real.
     
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  10. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

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    So I just skimmed 5 analyst reports on yesterday's presentation. Every single one was skeptical of Elon's insistence that LIDAR was not useful. None of them provided justification for their belief, other than "everyone else is using LIDAR". I swear, financial analysts wouldn't recognize a game changing technology if it was handed to them on a silver platter.

    No one thought FSD was going to happen next year. The test drives had issues:

    "Throughout the ride, the car performed relatively well but experienced a few rough maneuvers and had one disengagement where it failed to recognize cones blocking off some parked vehicles on the side of the road."

    "Tesla demonstrated true Level 4/5 capable autonomous vehicles which, in our experience, traveled for more than 20 minutes over suburban and highway roads with absolutely no human engagement."

    "While the vehicle was hesitant at times (RVs parked on the side of the road), took a turn or two tight, and was tentative in a collector merge, we equate the experience to the APTV rides in Las Vegas at CES 2017 (which was also a mix of on-and-off highway) —though a key differentiation is a lack of LIDAR or V2X installed/being deployed. Further, the vehicle was slightly more aggressive than those of OEM peers, but still did show some signs that improvement is needed (like all other test rides we have experienced). Altogether, we thought this was a positive showcase for where the company’s technology is currently, particularly the ability to navigate off-highway and recent internal push to enhance this development."

    "Our ride handled both highway and off-highway roads well, though it was very cautious and at times hesitant to change lanes (even with no other vehicles nearby). This led to a somewhat jerkier ride."

    "The biggest differentiator, in our view, is that Tesla conducted a complete, fully autonomous 20- minute test drive including on-highway and off-highway suburban streets without Lidar. Was it perfect? No. Did the driver have to manually intervene/disengage autopilot? On our drive,yes - one time when the car was about to miss a right-hand turn on a ramp. Did I feel safe? Yes. Would I want to fall asleep behind the wheel while in autopilot? Not yet."

    These five analysts were bears, with low TSLA price targets. Basically, if Tesla was trying to attract valuations that other Autonomy companies are getting, it doesn't seem to have convinced these guys.

    The thing these guys are missing (although some did pay lip service to this observation, but then didn't follow up on the implications), is that all other autonomy systems rely on very expensive and ugly LIDAR. For the past four years, Tesla has been the leader for autonomous driving, and based on yesterday's presentation, it's only going to get better for Tesla relative to the competition. They have a 7 year lead (and counting) on EV tech, and a growing lead on autonomous driving for the average Joe that wants to make long boring drives, or commuter traffic jams better. Analysts are completely missing the point that EV+AP makes any Tesla a much more valuable car, regardless of when FSD will arrive.

    If I see anything from the more bullish analysts, I'll summarize them.
     
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  11. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    I didn't use an SA. Just went to the website and ordered. They called when the car was ready. I got the financing and picked up the car.
     
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  12. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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  13. SOULPEDL

    SOULPEDL Active Member

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    Google - $
    Car Mfg - slump sales, competition, horses.

    Seems possible. Look at the Pacifica with all that Lidar hardware on it.
     
  14. Hank Moody

    Hank Moody Member

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    It seems to me like some people here don’t get what’s at stake with FSD, even though Elon showed it pretty clearly with the presentation at the end.

    The company that will reach level 5 autonomy at scale will own the market for decades, just like Microsoft with OS, Google with search or Amazon with ecommerce. And because it is the biggest market in the world it will surely make the company that will win it the most valuable company in the world by a big margin.

    Think about it, if just 10% of all miles driven in US happens on Tesla platform, then that’s 200B in revenue. So the revenue of Apple or Amazon just from the US!

    So I believe Tesla should put all their effort into it. Not just because of the scale of the market, but also because if they won’t win it someone else will and it doesn’t matter if it takes 2, 5 or even 10 years, once it happens nobody will be buying electric cars that doesn't drive themselves...
     
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  15. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    This deserves some further exposition. Our brains have several different types of abilities: one is pattern detection (like the neural nets). (Neural nets is a bizarre term of art.) Another is, well, reasoning -- logical reasoning. In computing the attempts to do reasoning were called "expert systems" (another bizarre term of art). It has been suggested that for good AI we need to actually link neural nets and expert systems together, perhaps with other specialized units as well.
     
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  16. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of the long tail here (march of 9s), one would be lucky if it stayed linear. If the odds of an event are a uniform distribution, then you have a 1/x chance of capturing the event. If the event probability becomes 1/(10*x) then you need 10 times the samples to capture the same number of interesting events in the same amount of time as you used to. If you data collection increase rate is less than the event probability, you'll learn slower and slower.
     
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  17. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #44917 Fact Checking, Apr 23, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
    This assumes that computing power cannot reach the levels of processing of the human brain.

    According to this estimate that's not the case:


    The firing rate in the neocortex (which hosts 80% of the brain's neurons) is between 0.3 and 1.8 per second. With 80 billion neurons in the neocortex that's a firing rate of about 24-144 billion per second.

    The average number of synapses per neuron is 10,000 - while the average information content of a synapse is 0.1 bits, or ~100 bits per neuron.

    So the NN processing speed of the entire human neocortex is ~2,400-14,000 billion bits per second. Now the operations it performs per firing is addition and multiplication and capping - which we can recognize with a ~10x complexity factor, so the net speed is about 24,000-140,000 billion bits of simple arithmetic operations per second. (This is probably generous to the brain.)

    The Tesla AI chip computes ~144,000 billion mini-floats per second (144 TOPS), where a mini-float is 8 bits. So the total processing power is ~1,152,000 billion bits of simple arithmetic operations per second.

    So if we believe these estimates then the Tesla chip is already comfortably beyond the NN processing power of the human brain, by a factor of ~8x.

    Put differently, every Tesla camera has as much NN computing power allocated as a single dedicated human brain watching that camera 24/7 ...

    What the human brain arguably does much better is information storage: 1,000,000 billion synapses can store about 1,250 TB of data, which is a lot more than what Tesla can store in their NNs.

    But if we accept that "legally safe driving" requires only a very small subset of the vast amount of data a human brain stores, then the Tesla AI chip can already do an order of magnitude better job, with vastly superior control latencies.

    That is going to save lives, and this will be apparent from the accident statistics.
     
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  18. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    A good start. It's almost teenage-driver level!

    There's a semi-blind corner on the right at the start of that video -- car needs to learn to slow down in anticipation. Second one later on.
     
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  19. StarFoxisDown!

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    While I don't see the Robotaxi's on the roads in 2020(maybe they get approval for certain urban cities where they only operate in that city), I do think the rate of improvement is going to be exponential. Not only because the number of Tesla will go from 500k to a million by 2020 but cause they'll likely start releasing some FSD features....but that they require human supervision...so city surface streets, stop signs, stop lights, roundabouts, etc...) Also the expansion to other regions(especially Europe) will help with edges cases(roundabouts galore).The samples of edge cases and interventions I think will increase exponentially more than the number of total cars out there.

    Btw, thank god Q1 report is here. So tired of hearing about Tesla returning to losing money from here on out, not making money on SR, lack of demand, blah blah blah.
     
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  20. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

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    Please tell me why this negates Buddha's and some 12 step observations that the only person you can change is yourself. Sticking to the error is important. Who makes it is a side issue—projection—fear of yourself making one like others? "Well, at least I didn't make that mistake."

    Who cares if a rose has thorns, we all have fears. Does the rose care?
     
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