Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DurandalAI]

Well, my family friend who is in his 60s just bought a stupid Jaguar convertible becuase "Tesla didn't have one" . Give me a break. I've been talking to him about Tesla/renewable energy/climate change since 2013 and he gets it, yet he pulls a stunt like this. So ****ing stupid.

Convertible was just the BS excuse. There was some other more motivating reason in your friend's mind. If a convertible wasn't what he chose, he would have made up a different BS reason like "worried about the company going BK and getting parts" or similar.

 

[JRP3]

Sure we can. What good is it going to do to hash it out here anyway? Is anybody going to change anybody else's opinion? Is it going to change the behavior of the politicians involved? Is it going to change the impact it has on the stock? I think people here are smart enough to research whatever developments there might be and make their own decisions regarding their investment strategies.

That could apply to any topic, why have a forum at all in that case?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Autoline/John McElroy seem to be warming to Tesla

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

jagiuar have had decades to influence people into thinking of their brand as desirable. the vast army of people who will be buying tesla model S, X and roadster are currently teenagers or mid twenties, and cannot yet afford one. Branding is a REAL long game.

 

[DurandalAI]

CNBC has an article entitled "Morgan Stanley says it's too easy to own a Tesla now and that's hurting the brand"

I didn't post the link because CNBC sux0rs. Anyhow, the FUD rolls, Tesla can't make an affordable vehicle, now that there is an affordable vehicle, it's "diluting" the brand..

 

[Nocturnal]

If you believe that autonomous driving is possible, and likely to happen in the next few years, then you should short or end exposure to the following industries. (no advice, I'm just a random idiot on the internet)

1. Domestic airlines - Why pay 1k for your family to fly to FL when you can get in the car and wake up there for $100 in fuel? Imagine taking a mini-RV or conversion van on a long trip. It would be way nicer than flying.
2. Rental Car companies - same reasons as above. No flights = no rentals. Plus even if you do fly why rent a car when robot taxis are everywhere and cheap?
3. Uber/lyft/taxis (the ones that don't make it to FSD at least)
4. Rail freight. Autonomous semis will be much closer to rail freight costs than semis today (maybe only 30% more), probably enough to make a huge dent in their customer base.
5. Retail stores. Already under pressure, FSD technology will make shipping products even cheaper and faster.

Those industries that may benefit.
1. Energy companies that provide solar, electric utilities, anyone in a space to build out chargers etc.
2. Construction and home building? If commuting is less painful people may not mind living farther away from cities. Road construction may also increase. (I'm mixed on that one, more cars will certainly be driving people around, but we will have fewer accidents so traffic won't be as bad for the same volume)

It's hard to imagine what other industries might arise as part of this, just like before smart phones the idea of "Apps" would not have made sense to anyone.

There are times when a tipping point is reached. I think an unassisted continental transit in a commercially available vehicle will be a pretty big event. There will be a story behind it involving individuals and teams. There will be witness stories and film documentaries. It will lead the news and impact the markets and change our view of the world.

Marking the beginning of the end of the drudgery and danger of human driving that cost millions of lives over many decades will be such an event.

It will be like the completion of the trans continental railroad. Domestic airlines should be crapping their pants right now.

 

[UncaNed]

I think I'm going to start my own EV based website called something like Electrik.co where I(and my source(s).....gotta have those sources) will post the opposite of Fred's writings

Todays article "Elon remains head of autopilot like he's been for past year......Tesla as tech company continues normal turnover rate as every other tech company does"

Since Freds legitimacy is based on his "sources" , I'd say my make believe website is just as credible as his

Next weeks headline "Microsoft, Amazon, Google next companies to go under due to average tech turnover rate!"

THIS! We need several sites or blogs explaining "FALSE NEWS" in the mainstream media from the viewpoint of a Tesla investor/stockholder where we outline in Karen Rei/Fact Checking level of detail with impeccable documentation the enormous chasm between reality and relig... oops... between reality and all the FUD on MSNBC, Reuters, Consumer Reports... and explaining what we're up against.

 

[Nocturnal]

CNBC has an article entitled "Morgan Stanley says it's too easy to own a Tesla now and that's hurting the brand"

I didn't post the link because CNBC sux0rs. Anyhow, the FUD rolls, Tesla can't make an affordable vehicle, now that there is an affordable vehicle, it's "diluting" the brand..

Next up. Tesla made too much money this year, had to hire additional accounting staff. We are issuing a sell rating.

 

[Singuy]

CNBC has an article entitled "Morgan Stanley says it's too easy to own a Tesla now and that's hurting the brand"

I didn't post the link because CNBC sux0rs. Anyhow, the FUD rolls, Tesla can't make an affordable vehicle, now that there is an affordable vehicle, it's "diluting" the brand..

Yeah exclusively is how you make money.

1. Make a product no one can buy
2. Profit.....

I'm Morgan Stanley, I make big money.

 

[bdy0627]

Didn’t coast to coast FSD already happened 2018? Or was it 2017?

The thing that makes me more optimistic this time is that Elon is now the head of the Autopilot team. He obviously knows the history of his missed promises and being way over-optimistic. I don't think he was this involved with Autopilot in 2016/2017 when he said they would be ready to do a coast to coast drive by the end of 2017. He went through the failure to deliver on that promise, changed much of the Autopilot/AI team, and shifted to becoming the head of the team himself. He has now very closely followed the ensuing progress over a couple of years. With all that in mind, he is very confident in FSD coming soon. He has indicated his confidence in it many times over the last month. Should we believe him this time?

We can contrast this with his other recent big miss with the model 3 ramp 10,000/week projection when he said there should be no doubt whatsoever they would hit 10,000/wk by the end of 2018. He made that statement on August 3rd 2017, way before he became directly involved in managing the ramp himself. In hindsight, it's clear there was much that he did not know/realize at that time. He should not have projected such confidence about hitting 10,000/wk in that timeframe.

With Autopilot, he is intimately aware of the development of Autopilot/FSD and it's current limitations and capabilities. He is doubling and tripling down on his projection of FSD coming by the end of this year. We are certainly wise to be skeptical about this projection given Elon's history. Yet, he is clearly in the best position of anyone to be able to project the timeline. We know in hindsight that was clearly not the case for the model 3 ramp. Let's hope he's right this time, or even just 3-6 months behind. That would still give Tesla an enormous lead with FSD.

 

[Maitri982]

While I'd still expect the Autopilot sex tape to get at least an order of magnitude more views than the coast to coast trip, coast-to-coast is not boring at all with the qualifiers Elon used:

• That anyone who owns an FSD Tesla would be able to replicate it.
• The original coast-to-coast pledge in 2017 said: "we should be able to go all the way form a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."

Yep...if my model X can do it, then all this day to day discussion about stock price will be like a distant memory. The shorts would truly be fried.

But I will believe it when I see it. He sure is quadrupling down his bet on FSD...so hopefully its going to be ready by EOY.

 

[azaz]

The thing that makes me more optimistic this time is that Elon is now the head of the Autopilot team. He obviously knows the history of his missed promises and being way over-optimistic. I don't think he was this involved with Autopilot in 2016/2017 when he said they would be ready to do a coast to coast drive by the end of 2017. He went through the failure to deliver on that promise, changed much of the Autopilot/AI team, and shifted to becoming the head of the team himself. He has now very closely followed the ensuing progress over a couple of years. With all that in mind, he is very confident in FSD coming soon. He has indicated his confidence in it many times over the last month. Should we believe him this time?

We can contrast this with his other recent big miss with the model 3 ramp 10,000/week projection when he said there should be no doubt whatsoever they would hit 10,000/wk by the end of 2018. He made that statement on August 3rd 2017, way before he became directly involved in managing the ramp himself. In hindsight, it's clear there was much that he did not know/realize at that time. He should not have projected such confidence about hitting 10,000/wk in that timeframe.

With Autopilot, he is intimately aware of the development of Autopilot/FSD and it's current limitations and capabilities. He is doubling and tripling down on his projection of FSD coming by the end of this year. We are certainly wise to be skeptical about this projection given Elon's history. Yet, he is clearly in the best position of anyone to be able to project the timeline. We know in hindsight that was clearly not the case for the model 3 ramp. Let's hope he's right this time, or even just 3-6 months behind. That would still give Tesla an enormous lead with FSD.

no we should not believe him. Elon is a human with skills and things he's bad at. one of the things he's absolutely terrible at is judging how long it'll take to solve a problem since he is ridiculously optimistic mixed with some hubris

in fact like @neroden said when he's extremely confident about something it's a bear signal because it usually means he doesn't understand the full challenges ahead.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If you believe that autonomous driving is possible, and likely to happen in the next few years, then you should short or end exposure to the following industries. (no advice, I'm just a random idiot on the internet)

1. Domestic airlines - Why pay 1k for your family to fly to FL when you can get in the car and wake up there for $100 in fuel? Imagine taking a mini-RV or conversion van on a long trip. It would be way nicer than flying.
2. Rental Car companies - same reasons as above. No flights = no rentals. Plus even if you do fly why rent a car when robot taxis are everywhere and cheap?
3. Uber/lyft/taxis (the ones that don't make it to FSD at least)
4. Rail freight. Autonomous semis will be much closer to rail freight costs than semis today (maybe only 30% more), probably enough to make a huge dent in their customer base.
5. Retail stores. Already under pressure, FSD technology will make shipping products even cheaper and faster.

Those industries that may benefit.
1. Energy companies that provide solar, electric utilities, anyone in a space to build out chargers etc.
2. Construction and home building? If commuting is less painful people may not mind living farther away from cities. Road construction may also increase. (I'm mixed on that one, more cars will certainly be driving people around, but we will have fewer accidents so traffic won't be as bad for the same volume)

It's hard to imagine what other industries might arise as part of this, just like before smart phones the idea of "Apps" would not have made sense to anyone.


It will be like the completion of the trans continental railroad. Domestic airlines should be crapping their pants right now.

The first part of that list represents an awful lot of potential enemies that will surely throw everything they can at Tesla and others to try to stop, or at least postpone their imminent demise.

Dan

 

[Remus]

The thing that makes me more optimistic this time is that Elon is now the head of the Autopilot team. He obviously knows the history of his missed promises and being way over-optimistic. I don't think he was this involved with Autopilot in 2016/2017 when he said they would be ready to do a coast to coast drive by the end of 2017. He went through the failure to deliver on that promise, changed much of the Autopilot/AI team, and shifted to becoming the head of the team himself. He has now very closely followed the ensuing progress over a couple of years. With all that in mind, he is very confident in FSD coming soon. He has indicated his confidence in it many times over the last month. Should we believe him this time?

We can contrast this with his other recent big miss with the model 3 ramp 10,000/week projection when he said there should be no doubt whatsoever they would hit 10,000/wk by the end of 2018. He made that statement on August 3rd 2017, way before he became directly involved in managing the ramp himself. In hindsight, it's clear there was much that he did not know/realize at that time. He should not have projected such confidence about hitting 10,000/wk in that timeframe.

With Autopilot, he is intimately aware of the development of Autopilot/FSD and it's current limitations and capabilities. He is doubling and tripling down on his projection of FSD coming by the end of this year. We are certainly wise to be skeptical about this projection given Elon's history. Yet, he is clearly in the best position of anyone to be able to project the timeline. We know in hindsight that was clearly not the case for the model 3 ramp. Let's hope he's right this time, or even just 3-6 months behind. That would still give Tesla an enormous lead with FSD.

I am not sure the "head of autopilot team" makes any difference considering he meets with the team on a weekly basis over the last 3 years at least.

 

[M3Rider]

Panasonic addressed Tesla battery production in today's call. Starts at 33:28, ends at 35:54 : teslainvestorsclub

"35 gWh initial investment has been completed and utilization as per Elon is 24 gWh currently. This year we want to increase this (utilization) rather significantly.

We have 3 fast/higher speed lines. When they become operational we will see improved efficiency. And we shifted tools (old to new tools) we were not able do sufficient verification; we saw disruptions (problems) and we (now) know the reasons and so in June we will start replacing the jigs, and therefore the yield will improve quite a bit.

And through localization of the workforce, which would mean we will have fewer Japanese expats. We will have more number of lines that can be operated only by local personnel and this can reduce the fixed costs. And of course, the demand from Tesla will be good enough for the full capacity, that is the assumption. If that assumption holds than the Tesla battery business can break even this year (for Panasonic).

As per demand, we need to clearly identify how much Model 3 demand will increase (moving forward). As per Model X (and S), last quarter, we saw decline but Tesla is already taking actions to revamp that demand; and we're talking with Tesla on this and there is upside potential there."

h/t reddit user /u/space_s3x

How is this an explanation if 3 new lines are not operational and won't be fixed until June, but at the same time Q1 had batteries(cell) shortage and that is no longer an issue / no bottlenecks for Q2? What exactly changed between Q1 and Q2 as far as cell production? Were there problems with the old lines too?

 

[Tslynk67]

Here's a double-whammy - CNBC Tesla page and it's from SA, and it's a fact!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If you believe that autonomous driving is possible, and likely to happen in the next few years, then you should short or end exposure to the following industries. (no advice, I'm just a random idiot on the internet)

1. Domestic airlines - Why pay 1k for your family to fly to FL when you can get in the car and wake up there for $100 in fuel? Imagine taking a mini-RV or conversion van on a long trip. It would be way nicer than flying.
2. Rental Car companies - same reasons as above. No flights = no rentals. Plus even if you do fly why rent a car when robot taxis are everywhere and cheap?
3. Uber/lyft/taxis (the ones that don't make it to FSD at least)
4. Rail freight. Autonomous semis will be much closer to rail freight costs than semis today (maybe only 30% more), probably enough to make a huge dent in their customer base.
5. Retail stores. Already under pressure, FSD technology will make shipping products even cheaper and faster.

Those industries that may benefit.
1. Energy companies that provide solar, electric utilities, anyone in a space to build out chargers etc.
2. Construction and home building? If commuting is less painful people may not mind living farther away from cities. Road construction may also increase. (I'm mixed on that one, more cars will certainly be driving people around, but we will have fewer accidents so traffic won't be as bad for the same volume)

It's hard to imagine what other industries might arise as part of this, just like before smart phones the idea of "Apps" would not have made sense to anyone.


It will be like the completion of the trans continental railroad. Domestic airlines should be crapping their pants right now.

Not sure about domestic airlines... looking up LA->Ft. Lauderdale(first FL city that came to mind) in evtripplanner, even with an S P100D, that’s ~50 hours assuming no stops. You’re only going to sleep and waking up there if you’re Rip Van Winkle.

 

[capster]

From CNBC:

• "Exports that have already left Chinese ports before May 10 will not be subject to the increase," says Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "This creates an unofficial window, potentially lasting a couple of weeks, in which negotiations can continue and generates a 'soft' deadline to reach a deal."

Even money then that these are fireworks for the stands to keep the griping down (on both sides) at the end of this match.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not sure about domestic airlines... looking up LA->Ft. Lauderdale(first FL city that came to mind) in evtripplanner, even with an S P100D, that’s ~50 hours assuming no stops. You’re only going to sleep and waking up there if you’re Rip Van Winkle.

That's the extreme case, and not relevant. If the airlines see a drop in 20% that's catastrophic. You aren't seeing the big picture.

Average Length of Haul, Domestic Freight and Passenger Modes (Miles) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Average distance of a domestic flight is about 900 miles. So yeah, of course the LA to NY flights are super long...most people aren't flying that route though. Even at 900 miles that's 15 hours assuming average speed of 60 miles per hour which is conservative. Minimum time for flying from a regular airport is what, 4 hours door to door? Counting travel time to airport, check in, security, flight etc. Certainly an autonomous car destroys the value of a flight for anything in the 6 -8 hour driving range.

How many people, especially families or those with no time constraints, already make the choice to drive rather than fly? Of course this is conjecture, but I'm just trying to line up the pieces. I do know that I'm taking my kids to Orlando next month. I'm paying $864 for one way on friggin Allegiant airlines, so let's say 1600 for a family of 3. Plus 600 for a car rental. That's over 2200. The flight down there will take me most of a day. I'll leave my home at 2pm for a 4:13 flight. We will land at 8pm, tack on another hour for luggage and rental car pickup.
That's 6 hours of travel with a direct flight, without a direct flight add another 2-4 hours. Plus I'm forced to be on the airline's schedule, cancellations etc. Or I could take 17 hours, and save $2200 without losing sleep or forcing me to sleep at a hotel during the trip.

 

[NicoV]

That's the extreme case, and not relevant. If the airlines see a drop in 20% that's catastrophic. You aren't seeing the big picture.

Average Length of Haul, Domestic Freight and Passenger Modes (Miles) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Average distance of a domestic flight is about 900 miles. So yeah, of course the LA to NY flights are super long...most people aren't flying that route though. Even at 900 miles that's 15 hours assuming average speed of 60 miles per hour which is conservative. Minimum time for flying from a regular airport is what, 4 hours door to door? Counting travel time to airport, check in, security, flight etc. Certainly an autonomous car destroys the value of a flight for anything in the 6 -8 hour driving range.

How many people, especially families or those with no time constraints, already make the choice to drive rather than fly?

There are people with no time constraints?