Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Spacemanspliff]

So I listened to the Panasonic stream and the the initial transcription was overall good but I think it misses some key things in the beginning that add a little more clarity, I've edited the initial transcription to what the translator says word for word for the most part in the beginning.

"35 gWh initial investment has been completed already and as for the operating rate or the utilization rate as was mentioned by Elon is maybe 24 gWh currently. And this year we want to increase this (utilization) rather significantly.

One is including the lines that have yet to start we have 3 fast/higher speed lines and when they become operational we will see improved efficiency. And when we shifted from (some number that sounds like 68500 at the 34:10 mark) to others we were not really able do sufficient verification of the facilities and we saw disruptions (problems) and we (now) know the reasons and so in June we will start replacing the jigs, and therefore the number of cells and the yield will improve quite a bit.

And through localization of the workforce, which would mean we will have fewer Japanese expats and that is progressing. We will have more number of lines that can be operated only by local personnel and this can reduce the fixed costs. And of course, the demand from Tesla is going to be good enough for the full capacity, that is the assumption. If that assumption holds than the Tesla battery business can break even this year (for Panasonic).

As per demand, we need to clearly identify how much Model 3 demand will increase (moving forward). As per Model X (and S), last quarter, we saw decline but Tesla is already taking actions to revamp that demand; and we're talking with Tesla on this and there is upside potential there."

 

[Nocturnal]

There are people with no time constraints?

Hard to believe I know.

My in-laws are in that bucket. She is a teacher so has all summer off. He is a sales rep and sets his own time. They always drive down to FL from KS.

The first part of that list represents an awful lot of potential enemies that will surely throw everything they can at Tesla and others to try to stop, or at least postpone their imminent demise.

Dan

I expect those industries to lobby hard against FSD when it starts taking off.

 

[Remus]

The first part of that list represents an awful lot of potential enemies that will surely throw everything they can at Tesla and others to try to stop, or at least postpone their imminent demise.

Dan

yes, but fortunately it's not only Tesla who's working on self-driving. and nobody believing in Musk means those enemies would attack others first.

It's also very interesting that almost everyone is concentrate on robo taxi. Only Otto was working on autonomous semi-truck driving on highways. Not only the highway driving is simpler with less corner cases to consider, the intermediate result: platooning, also makes money.

I am guessing they are all trying to avoid political problems: there are 3.5 million truck drivers in U.S., literally an order of magnitude more than taxi and ride-hauling drivers.

 

[RFernatt]

in fact like @neroden said when he's extremely confident about something it's a bear signal because it usually means he doesn't understand the full challenges ahead.

Like the Woody Allen quote says, “Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem.”

 

[Spacemanspliff]

How is this an explanation if 3 new lines are not operational and won't be fixed until June, but at the same time Q1 had batteries(cell) shortage and that is no longer an issue / no bottlenecks for Q2? What exactly changed between Q1 and Q2 as far as cell production? Were there problems with the old lines too?

It seems like the 3 new lines are to replace older existing ones, the 24Gwh to 35Gwh increase is separate. My assumption is they hit roughly 24 by the end of Q1, so a rate of 24gwh weekly going into Q2 (plus maybe incremental amounts of cells as the 24 to 35 lines ramp?) with the introduction of a lower range pack should mean no bottleneck at current production levels, and would allow them to do roughly 5,900-6000 every week with a 65kwh avg pack ratio.

 

[Thumper]

I’ll make this the short version of what should be a much longer post. Although, the social convention of not discussing religion or politics has perhaps made dinner parties less contentious, it has done so at high price. While the common folk have occupied their minds with sports, fashion and the weather, the rich and powerful have been busy in their clubs, boardrooms and conclaves shaping the world to their liking. When Pope Paul VI issued Humanae Vitae in 1968, it moved discussion of overpopulation out of all of those “polite” conversations that would have made intelligent policy possible. The result is with us today and the vast hordes of humans are the overarching cause of most of our ills in the world from global warming, ocean acidification, and eco-migration. We fail to discuss religion and politics at our continued peril! These things are at the heart of the need for the Tesla Mission.

 

[TradingInvest]

Companies should always try to give conservative targets then over achieve them. In many cases, it's better to not mention them until you are done. Investors should keep expectations low, then be positively surprised. If a company gives high targets then can't achieve within the predicted timeframe, it's the supporters who suffer the most.

I feel Tesla has been doing the opposite for quite a while. I understand there are all sorts of reasons to set high expectations. In the end it's not worth it.

 

[mad474]

"... And when we shifted from (some number that sounds like 68500 at the 34:10 mark) to others we were not really able do sufficient verification of the facilities and we saw disruptions (problems) and we (now) know the reasons and so in June we will start replacing the jigs, and therefore the number of cells and the yield will improve quite a bit.
"

Meant 18650 (size lithium ion battery)?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

That's the extreme case, and not relevant. If the airlines see a drop in 20% that's catastrophic. You aren't seeing the big picture.

Average Length of Haul, Domestic Freight and Passenger Modes (Miles) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Also dont forget people like me, who despise flying for environmental grounds, exist. I'll always auto-drive rather than fly when possible to reduce my emissions.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Meant 18650 (size lithium ion battery)?

On my first listen thats what I thought they said, but that wouldn't make sense as 18650 is done in Japan not Nevada. Must be referring to a piece of equipment.

Edit: That and after multiple listens she said 68500 instead of 18650

 

[Tslynk67]

How many people, especially families or those with no time constraints, already make the choice to drive rather than fly?

My family! My wife hates flying. Plus with three kids, a trip, say, to south France is already €2k. We can drive down there in the Model X for free.

And for my side, I have no issue with flying per-se, I'm rational about how safe it is, but I think it's very damaging for pollution.

 

[CorneliusXX]

First RHD VINs registered

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

 

[VValleyEV]

Here's a double-whammy - CNBC Tesla page and it's from SA, and it's a fact!

View attachment 406192

I saw that and read it, chock full of Tesla positives.

One drawback: the author quotes John Petersen’s article from last month claiming that a Tesla Model 3 generates more CO2 emissions than a Toyota Camry Hybrid, and the author here does not dispute that. I added a comment (yeah its useless but ya gotta try), pointing out Mr Petersen’s two biggest fallacies in that article (there may be more): double counting the charging loss that is already accounted for in the MPGe standard; and assigning 100% of the power grid generation for the Tesla charging as coming from the power grid’s highest emissions energy source (natural gas peaker plants), well because he assumes EVs are all charged in the evenings and on the day he picked the generated CO2 was highest in the evening blabla no he won’t use the average daily emissions level from the grid because that wouldn’t give him a click-bait headline.

 

[DurandalAI]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

As if living in IL wasn't ridiculously expensive enough..

 

[Nocturnal]

Yeah exclusively is how you make money.

1. Make a product no one can buy
2. Profit.....

I'm Morgan Stanley, I make big money.

It's bananas that anyone has the cajones to even say such a thing. Tesla's peers Mercedes, BMW, Audi all have cars at the same price points. Did the base 3 series or C class destroy BMW and Mercedes?

 

[bdy0627]

no we should not believe him. Elon is a human with skills and things he's bad at. one of the things he's absolutely terrible at is judging how long it'll take to solve a problem since he is ridiculously optimistic mixed with some hubris

in fact like @neroden said when he's extremely confident about something it's a bear signal because it usually means he doesn't understand the full challenges ahead.

Based upon how divided even this TSLA investor forum is, it's not surprising the market is giving absolutely zero credit to Elon's guidance and FSD projections. The silver lining is that almost everyone now expects disappointment from Tesla on both the FSD front and production/deliveries. It's just more of the same boasts, hubris, and crazy optimism. IMO, that creates an opportunity for at least a mild positive surprise on these fronts. I'm not expecting it, but neither is the market, which is why the stock is performing so terribly.

 

[bdy0627]

I am not sure the "head of autopilot team" makes any difference considering he meets with the team on a weekly basis over the last 3 years at least.

My impression is that he is more involved with it now than he was in 2016, but perhaps he was just as involved then.

 

[bdy0627]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

Are they going to start charging EV drivers more on the toll roads too?!

 

[elasalle]

.

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

Does Illinois tax the utilities that produce electricity?

Are they going to start charging EV drivers more on the toll roads too?!

Flying cars are the only alternative