Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well here we sit in an MMD @ $366 when we know MM want to land at $382. What to do?

"As for me and my House, we will HODL the shares."​

*Roto-Reuters' plumbing their FUD again this morning. This too shall pass..

Cheers!

 

[dww12]

I really never changed every 2-3 years for tech. I really would change because onset of mechanical failures. I dont feel that need with our electric cars.

Our 2012 Volt was 6 years old when my son totalled it. Only maintenance it ever had was 1 oil change.
Our 2014 Volt is 6 years old. Only maintenance it has ever had was 2 oil changes.
Our 2015 Model S has had no maintenance other then new tires. It did need the MCU replaced in April
Our 2018 Model 3 has had no maintenance.

FSD will be the step change where all cars that don’t do it will become garbage or yard art.

 

[Nocturnal]

Because analysts generally pay no attention to the realities of the supply chain. They just assume that materials and parts will magically appear as needed. Any more accurate approach is too much work. And, in most cases, the reality is that the magic works.

It's pretty clear from years of EV "analysis" that batteries are just parts that are subject to magic.

It goes back to their belief that EVs are just like any other car. Legacy autos have a huge network of parts suppliers ready to go at all times to provide key parts. Engines are built in house from readily available materials.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The "million mile battery" is not really for driving, but to allow Tesla to have the cars connect to the grid and still have the car work for the a good expected lifetime.

I think another benefit of a million mile battery is to dispel the misconception that EV batteries are expensive and need to be replaced. I've seen that mentioned many times by FUDsters. There could be a significant number of people on the fence because they fear incurring a large cost to replace the battery.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My opinion would be that I wonder how long Tesla will sell to retail customers once the million mile battery is a reality.

Tesla's FCF determines the upper limit of how much of their own production they can consume for Robotaxi/TN and still remain slightly GAAP profitable (likely 5% < Limit < 20%).

This is an ADVANTAGE for Tesla, because it means they ALWAYS have a better place to allocate income than to income taxes... when income allows, expand the fleet of RTs!

Cheers!

 

[Cobbler]

You will be surprised to know that TSLAQ thinks China export news means weakening demand.

Haha When first model 3 shipments started to Europe, it was because the US market was saturated in demand for EV's...
Same playbook....

 

[StealthP3D]

Haha When first model 3 shipments started to Europe, it was because the US market was saturated in demand for EV's...
Same playbook....

Yes, except this time I suspect Tesla is being more anticipatory and pro-active about it to avoid the disaster that was Q1 2019. Tesla doesn't make big mistakes in execution very often but that was a big one and totally avoidable. It makes sense they will avoid it this time around by moving into additional markets early so they can keep China production constrained and gradually phase in increasing numbers of cars in transit.

 

[lafrisbee]

I feel the exact opposite. I could present specific facts/make a giant argument, but no sense in some monstrous reply.

Smartphones replacement cycle in the US 2014-2023 | Statista

I believe Tesla is encouraging people who traditionally have held onto vehicles to upgrade faster, and this will accelerate similarly to how it has accelerated in smart phones as the technologies evolved.

One way to think about this is that emerging technology will have a ton of low hanging fruit where improvements are easier and more profound to the product. This will continue for years. As the technology matures, improvement is more challenging and yields reduced impact.

In Apple’s case, they’re simply addressing more of the market - and while the turnover rate for segments of the market may increase or decrease relative to the average, the overall trend is simply following the returns on rate of improvement. While the iPhone X user may not see giant technological gains to justify the iPhone 11 Pro, the users upgrading to the iPhone SE are likely seeing dramatic increases in functionality.

Applying this concept to Tesla - they’re in the earlier days still. The rate of improvement is dramatic. And I believe it will continue to be dramatic for at least 5 more years. I think the turnover rate of Tesla vehicles will grow during that time.

You both are 100% correct. And neither of you make a valid point concerning the future. Teslas will be bought for many more reasons than an ICC (Internal Combustion Car).
I got soo many dummies upset on The CyberTruck Forum when I titled a thread something like, "I ain't like you." I was pointing out how the cybertrck would be purchased by a large population, and a very diverse population due to the number boxes a cybertrck will fill. It was a positive thread on how the cybertrck would fulfill the needs/desires of a vast swath of the car-buying population. Some of the "people" jumped to the conclusion I was being elitist. But I was attempting to draw attention to the vast variety of reasons a cybertrck had been ordered.
And to a lesser extent all the Tesla EV's can do different things for different people, and will therefore be purchased for different reasons different ways by different people...and held for different lengths of time (also for different reasons, which can change when the world or the vehicle offerings change).
I know one thing that is going to occur in the future...
TSLA will end the day near Maxpain. And we are all ants in the ant farm of the MM's.

 

[Nocturnal]

You both are 100% correct. And neither of you make a valid point concerning the future. Teslas will be bought for many more reasons than an ICC (Internal Combustion Car).
I got soo many dummies upset on The CyberTruck Forum when I titled a thread something like, "I ain't like you." I was pointing out how the cybertrck would be purchased by a large population, and a very diverse population due to the number boxes a cybertrck will fill. It was a positive thread on how the cybertrck would fulfill the needs/desires of a vast swath of the car-buying population. Some of the "people" jumped to the conclusion I was being elitist. But I was attempting to draw attention to the vast variety of reasons a cybertrck had been ordered.
And to a lesser extent all the Tesla EV's can do different things for different people, and will therefore be purchased for different reasons different ways by different people...and held for different lengths of time (also for different reasons, which can change when the world or the vehicle offerings change).
I know one thing that is going to occur in the future...
TSLA will end the day near Maxpain. And we are all ants in the ant farm of the MM's.

My observation has been that there are a lot of traditional truck buyers who want the cybertruck, but still feel they need to hate on Tesla and "city slickers" for wanting one. They get mad when I point out that the vast majority of pick-ups are commuter/lifestyle vehicles rather than actual work trucks. Data is murky but seems like only 15-20% of trucks are used to tow or go off-road. Because I often wear a button up shirt to work and don't have a can of skoal in my back pocket then clearly I've never used a truck for real work. "Reverse elitism" is quite common.

You are absolutely correct of course. There are a lot of people who wouldn't mind that extra functionality of a pick up but don't like the gas mileage or rough ride. I've driven/used tons of trucks in the past but wasn't planning on buying one until the CT was presented. I can tow a camper, play around off-road, and still have a low maintenance and cheap to fuel EV. Win/win. Edit, plus the 500+ miles of range will make longer trips even nicer than my 3.

 

[StealthP3D]

I got soo many dummies upset on The CyberTruck Forum when I titled a thread something like, "I ain't like you." I was pointing out how the cybertrck would be purchased by a large population, and a very diverse population due to the number boxes a cybertrck will fill. It was a positive thread on how the cybertrck would fulfill the needs/desires of a vast swath of the car-buying population. Some of the "people" jumped to the conclusion I was being elitist. But I was attempting to draw attention to the vast variety of reasons a cybertrck had been ordered.

No, they didn't jump to the conclusion you were being elitist - they constructed that false narrative so others could adopt that position. These are people who constantly try to shine a negative light on Tesla so their predictions of "lack of demand" might someday come true.

Elitist? How is that possible when the Cybertruck is broadly priced in-line with the most popular trim levels of Ford and GMC trucks with similar specs. Once you take into account fuel and oil and service savings, resale value and included accessories like the motorized vault cover, air compressor and silent generator, the Cybertruck offers more value than traditional offerings. It's cheaper.

Always emphasize how inexpensive the Cybertruck is and how much value it offers compared to the competition. That is what makes it compelling in all of it's model variations. Towing, payload, eMPG, resale value, included accessories.

Those without Cybertruck reservations simply won't be able to get one for a long time after we take delivery. Not because the ramp won't happen quickly but because demand will grow faster than production.

 

[JBRR]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304441544913481730?s=21

“We will make super efficient home hvac with hepa filters one day”

 

[StealthP3D]

They get mad when I point out that the vast majority of pick-ups are commuter/lifestyle vehicles rather than actual work trucks. Data is murky but seems like only 15-20% of trucks are used to tow or go off-road.

Current pick-up trucks are terrible at real off-road work. They can be good for a mud-bog or whatnot but they fail miserably at true off-road work. The Cybertruck will likely be an improvement over other stock pickups due to it's electric motors and long-travel, fully adjustable air suspension but it is still not a purpose built off-road vehicle.

Tesla will sell them as quickly as they can make them and it will transform the company's financials while the haters will wail and lament how they are changing the rural landscape for the worse. Ugly and atrocious, they will say. But the financials will be stunning.

 

[mickificki]

 

[ZeApelido]

The real question is - which one of you is going to get my work done for me on Sept 22nd?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The real question is - which one of you is going to get my work done for me on Sept 22nd?

You mean that's not a observed holiday?

 

[amolina]

The real question is - which one of you is going to get my work done for me on Sept 22nd?

I am going to take a holiday for sure

 

[Knightshade]

View attachment 587061

The stock price didn't exactly love autonomy day though- I still feel it's gonna be sell on news because outside of Plaid S (which will be downplayed as a niche vehicle- which honestly it is) it's gonna mostly be nerdy "not mainstream today but huge impact tomorrow" stuff that'll go over most reporter and analysts heads anyway

 

[oldTAVguy]

The stock price didn't exactly love autonomy day though- I still feel it's gonna be sell on news because outside of Plaid S (which will be downplayed as a niche vehicle- which honestly it is) it's gonna mostly be nerdy "not mainstream today but huge impact tomorrow" stuff that'll go over most reporter and analysts heads anyway

When was Battery Day first scheduled and when was that date first said by Elon?

 

[JRP3]

The real question is - which one of you is going to get my work done for me on Sept 22nd?

Some of you still have jobs?

 

[Andy O]

“We will make super efficient home hvac with hepa filters one day”

This is something I am looking forward to. Current home hvac systems look so primitive -- one thermostat controlling the whole house. I want bluetooth temperature and humidity sensors in every room and one outside, control of individual vents, dampers, and windows, and a central piece of software that lets me vary the details. If all this isn't standard now that's because of inertia.