Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

OK uncle. Tesla can never be hacked.

By Tesla I assume you mean a Tesla car. By hacked I assume you mean software IP stolen. That was the gist of the prior conversation.

Correct. Software cannot be stolen from the car. It can only be stolen from head office or wherever the source code is kept. Even then it would not benefit the thief, unless they had the resources to keep pace with future Tesla development and an identically hardware equipped vehicle to run it on.

The development team functions because it uses knowledge gained to date to make the next version better. A brand new team would likely make a next version that was worse, having no experience from which to gain insight.

It would be more useful to kidnap the actual development team, if they could be somehow coerced to work.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think the market in general is far, far more shortsighted than that, and anyone making such a realization will simply restructure their portfolio accordingly to be green-tech-proof or green-tech-weighted - which would drive $TSLA up, not down.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the ICEV industry is forked. Indeed it takes the mindset of a TSLA short to not see it. Yes, agree with the rest, the money coming out of those stocks should migrate to cleantech stocks. Perhaps it takes a second epiphany. People invest in what they understand. Most people do not live, eat, breathe Tesla as this crowd does. I don’t get that either - amazing brain food on a regular basis. Just not hungry for a (sustainable) future I guess.

 

[Huskyf]

Did you see that : 14 000 news VIN for the fisrt week of the year
Tesla’s strong overseas Model 3 push teased with 9k VIN registrations for Europe
Tesla's strong overseas Model 3 push teased with 9k VIN registrations for Europe

 

[UncaNed]

The climax will be when/if they release FSD and suddenly starts making real money both on cars sold and on ride sharing. And when they start to transform society and how we live our lives.

Or when Tesla rooftop solar/powerwall/Tesla car price hands down beats the cost of buying and operating every ICE car and truck without tax incentives.

 

[UncaNed]

Well, that’ll pop your ears, for sure.

...and help the toilets flush.

 

[Buckminster]

A hard Brexit was originally conceived as a managed no deal but would still have involved an EU trade deal. A no deal would be a diamond Brexit (although not necessarily in terms of riches).

Chances of a diamond Brexit - 40%
Chances a diamond Brexit would badly affect global economy - 50%
Chances a badly affected global economy would impact TSLA significantly - 50%
Therefore 10% likelihood that you lot should worry.
Me however...

May's deal is neither hard nor soft - more of a quicksand Brexit. If we struggle, we will sink deeper and more quickly..

The UK unwittingly, haven't done such a bad job. I am one of the few okay with the May (exit only at this stage) deal - perhaps because I am an optimist (TSLA Super bull after all). Because a diamond deal would be pretty bad for the EU as well as the UK, a cliff edge could well put off the EU from allowing it seeing that they are the clever and together crew in this negotiation. The EU will soon realise that we will shoot ourselves in the foot because we are more interested in whose gun it was, how it got into the country and who pulled the trigger. Going to hospital is boring and beneath us brits. If the UK could actually agree on something (hard, soft, remain, delay) then we could probably get it done with the EU. However, that agreement is just not going to happen.

 

[UncaNed]

Well I guesse when Putin tell the potus to end the shutdown he will.”?

-FTFY

 

[JollyRoger]

Article running on Bloomberg, Ellison reveals 1 billion invested in shares. We knew this now every one knows this.

Oracle’s Ellison Reveals $1 Billion Stake in Tesla

We are close to 1% per market, in hoping Trump can sort a deal out with China and we should have a good week!

 

[AudubonB]

There is a POLITICAL thread, everyone. Use it.
It’s also Oh-Dark-30 and you’re making a Mod angry. Bad combination.

 

[KarenRei]

Great. Those are still pretty low estimates, aren't they. How the hell do they think Tesla would arrange to make less money in Q4 than in Q3? I figure there must be a bunch of really dumb lowball numbers in the "average".

It's certainly possible if margins fall due to the lower ASP and/or Tesla significantly increases its capital burn on its many ongoing capital projects. That said, I don't think either has happened. We've seen lots of things that point to margin improvement, lots of signs that Tesla is confident in maintaining its margins, etc. GF3's big cash needs shouldn't have hit yet. Supercharger network scaleup was surprisingly slow in Q4. Etc. So I don't expect to see Tesla blow this.

But technically, yes it is possible.

 

[jbcarioca]

I used to define "optimal speed" as the nautical miles per hour cruise achieved by the airplane you're looking to buy next, whatever airplane that happens to be.
It's a bell curve, though, and optimum slopes back down as you come to redefine "having a good time flying" in favor of the "good", rather than the "time."
Robin

Yes! Continuing that thought, my first experience was in an aircraft that cruised at about 120 kt. Eventually graduated to one that cruised at 490 kt when lightly loaded but at ~430 for ‘economy’ cruise. Both were, in their context, ‘having a good time’ but no civil aircraft IMHO beats an early Learjet for sheer Ludicrous’ style joy. Leaving BKL with only me and a copilot on board, a -10F calm winter morning at 0600, we reached FL410 in 7 minutes. Even better than a SP100D launch! FWIW we only had enough fuel to reach BMI or we’d never have done it. That Lear derived partly from a design intended for a Swiss fighter thus had some aerobatic capabilities but not so certified. Bill Lear had some of the flamboyant character of Elon Musk, but none of the ambitions for human preservation. I still keep a photo of my Lear N800RF which still operates.

See, I did try to keep a little on topic. Major innovations do not necessarily lead to long term commercial success.

 

[loco]

jbcarioca, that flight you expected to arrive a few hours earlier was over 13h. In line with China Eastern 578 flying on the same route at the same time. GLF6 is faster than an airliner but not on such a long trip. Would be low on fuel if flown at max cruise.

 

[Buckminster]

There is a POLITICAL thread, everyone. Use it.
It’s also Oh-Dark-30 and you’re making a Mod angry. Bad combination.

Sorry guvnor - they made me do it...

Would I be pushing it to split hairs? Brexit is not politics - closer to alchemy or potions.

Brexit thread

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla Solar Roof installation still takes about 2 weeks, install time needs to go down for ramp up

So frustrating for Elon. He must be thinking - "do I have to sleep at every Gigafactory to get them going"? They definitely won't want to ramp up unless the product clicks together like Lego. Otherwise, what's the point of ramping up - not enough roofers or electricians in the world.

 

[mongo]

Tesla Solar Roof installation still takes about 2 weeks, install time needs to go down for ramp up

So frustrating for Elon. He must be thinking - "do I have to sleep at every Gigafactory to get them going"? They definitely won't want to ramp up unless the product clicks together like Lego. Otherwise, what's the point of ramping up - not enough roofers or electricians in the world.

From article: currently 12 days to install vs 5-7 for normal tile roof.
Unclear how much of that 12 days is in the site plan, permit, and electrical work.

Install is something like 6 parts tile roof and 2 parts solar install with a dash of Powerwall. Roof does basically click together once the tiles are cut to size and the power connections are there.

Edit: Tesla is likely a re-roof install which also adds time and weather factors over a new house tile install. Would help to have the 12 day number broken down...

 

[WarpedOne]

Article running on Bloomberg, Ellison reveals 1 billion invested in shares. We knew this now every one knows this.

Oracle’s Ellison Reveals $1 Billion Stake in Tesla

We are close to 1% per market, in hoping Trump can sort a deal out with China and we should have a good week!

From the article:

Tesla shares were trading 0.9 percent higher at $338 million in the pre-market in New York, giving a market value of $58 billion.

Freudean slip?
Sign of things to come?
Memories of the future?

 

[Sancho]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

There’s a ton of money on the sidelines held by folks who won’t/can’t invest in Tesla until it’s demonstrably profitable. With each additional consecutive quarter of profits, more of that money starts buying. Eventually that triggers a breakout. Hard to predict how many quarters does the trick, but two consecutive quarters is a meaningful benchmark for a lot of big money.

 

[KarenRei]

There’s a ton of money on the sidelines held by folks who won’t/can’t invest in Tesla until it’s demonstrably profitable. With each additional consecutive quarter of profits, more of that money starts buying. Eventually that triggers a breakout. Hard to predict how many quarters does the trick, but two consecutive quarters is a meaningful benchmark for a lot of big money.

Agree 100% with the above statement. It's a key part of my investment thesis in the near term.

Swing traders should - as with Q3 - be cautious about cashing out any money too soon after the Q4 ER. We need to give new traders some time to get into the stock (and put the squeeze on the shorts at the same time).

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA doing nicely premarket. +1,5%.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well yea, of course. There have been hundreds before this one, and there'll be hundreds more. The "climax" of the Tesla story never climaxes - it just keeps getting better!

Tesla, multiple climaxes...