-=buzz=-
Member
Thanks for digging into all this. It is hard to know for sure what all Tesla is including in the 20TWh cost estimate. I do believe that it is more than just the tooling that Panasonic is rolling out at $28M/GWh. Specifically, BDay presentation included processing of raw minerals and recycling. At the 20TWh scale quite a substantial portion of materials are recycled, but at the present scale mostly third party recyclers recycle the small portion used. Optimizing raw processing and recycling is one of Tesla's strategies for keeping battery material costs low. To be sure there is a tradeoff between capex (for raw and recycled mineral processing) and cogs (for the cost of processed minerals). Additionally the Panasonic tooling might not include the cost of land and and buildings. Originally this was around $20M/GWh, but as Tesla shrinks the footprint to one tenth, this cost too can come down 90% or so. (Naturally ther is some geographical variation in these.
I think using the $28M/GWh for total cost is misleading, as Panasonic AFAIK is upgrading their existing lines. So unless this is basically touching every process step by the same amount, we are only seeing part of the cost per GWh with this estimation....