Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

If you want a wacky indicator of where IV has moved in 24hrs, the bid/ask on $90 2022 puts has gone from something like $1.25/$2.10 yesterday to $1.95/$2.66 right now. All while SP is actually UP 5%.

we went from 55 to about 80 IV in 3 days.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

When we hit $600 I am making another Tesla reservation. Not sure which model though. What could a retired couple possibly do with TWO Cybertrucks anyway? (Pretty sure I know my sons' responses to that question) LOL!

Dan

 

[amolina]

Somebody's manipulating the price UP now? I thought they only tried to make it go down, no?

What about Gamma squeeze boys and girls? When do you all think that MM's would hedge and buy shares for all of the inbound CALL volumes? Following is a snapshot of Big CALL bets made today. SWEEP type is more important and it signifies more urgency since it is more of "I NEED IT NOW" trade and sweeps all exchanges.

Does anybody have more experience with FlowALgo? My eyes are open for very short duration OTM SWEEP calls.

P.S. DO NOT trade based on this info. I have seen many cases where all these calls made no money when I backtested it historically.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I just hope BetTSLA got back in....

No, I'm still mostly out. I did buy another 5000 shares after hours after the inclusion announcement, more or less doubling my current stake. But the current rally from 390 has largely passed me by.

I'm still worrying that we're going to see transition turmoil that will roil the markets. So far some of the signs are good that we'll avoid that, but I'm not yet confident. And at this point, for me, there really isn't any point in gambling other than entertainment.

 

[Cape Coddess]

It will be interesting to see what the undisclosed stock is and why Berkshire was granted an exception.

When will that be, any idea?

 

[StealthP3D]

The discussion on selling covered calls being bearish, well I'm looking to sell calls as I need some money. I'd rather sell calls where the premiums cover my needs at a strike I don't mind selling, as opposed to selling core shares at a lower price.

Makes sense, no?

Bullish or bearish, like most things in this world it's all relative.

The most bullish thing to do when you need money but don't want to sell shares would be to emulate Elon and borrow against them. I'm not saying that makes sense in your particular situation because it's a riskier option - I'm just saying that is the more bullish path.

Just because someone is overall net bullish on TSLA doesn't mean they always have to make the most bullish trades available! And yet the fact remains, the selling of covered calls is the bearish side of that particular trade. The buying of those same calls that are out of the money is the bullish side of the trade. That's all! It's not complicated. Please don't take it as an insult, it is exactly what it is.

 

[ammulder]

I am still learning the ropes to option buying, but feel pretty well positioned at the moment given my share foundation and the calls I have purchased (mostly by mimicking trades posted on this board from time to time so Thanks!), but in trying to develop some skills of my own, I am trying to look for and analyze the available calls (timeframes, strike and prices) and be able to identify sweetspots where call prices seem to be lagging behind the market.

As I go through them one by one, there seems to be some that are better bargains than others, but I find it hard to make objective comparisons. How should I approach this (there must be a tool for this), and at this point are there any obvious ranges I should be looking at?

For a rough sanity check, have a look at the past 1-6 months price history for the particular option you're looking at. If it's at a high, not a good time to buy. If it's relatively low, what fraction of the prior high is it at? If you're looking at two options and one is at 1/5 of the high and one is at 1/3 of the high, all else being equal, one of those seems to have more room to grow if the stock price pops. "All else being equal": could be distorted if these highs are at two different times, or one option is close to expiration and the other isn't, or etc.

 

[StealthP3D]

When will that be, any idea?

I would expect it to show up on Berkshire's regular quarterly filing when the reason for the exemption is no longer valid. I doubt the exemption is long-term in nature. That would raise even bigger eyebrows about the transparency of our markets!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This is all the FUD they can muster up these days?

 

[woodisgood]

How much does revealing a new Berkshire stake cause stocks to go up generally? I tried to piece this together for AAPL but couldn’t figure out when the position was first revealed.

Were they really preventing THAT much of a stock rise by not disclosing it? If it is TSLA, which seems plausible given the dots being connected but also could be incorrect.

 

[WattsHappening]

Thanks. I put in a limit sell order at $100. Since the bid/ask is, like you said, somewhere near $14, it won’t actually happen unless the SP rises nearer to ITM.

Ah, I get it now. Sorry for assuming you were making a math error.

 

[Runarbt]

The biggest bit that we are missing is:
WHO IS SELLING?
I could understand people that have to put shoes on their children's feet due to Winter coming, but that's it.
24 million shares in the first hour? Why? Even the ETF's have to be smart enough to suspend their selling of a stock that is this sure a bet?
Is this ALL from MM's still trying to keep it close to $500?

I sold some, to leverage up with DITM calls. ;-) Sorry..

 

[H Mak]

When we hit $600 I am making another Tesla reservation. Not sure which model though. What could a retired couple possibly do with TWO Cybertrucks anyway? (Pretty sure I know my sons' responses to that question) LOL!

Dan

I've promised my 2 daughters who share a house, that if it hits $600 I'll pay off their mortgage

 

[Khamul]

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Unfortunately, there are too many rules around liquor distribution, even in the US. However, we will be selling the lightning bottle & shot glasses worldwide.
----

YAY! I never cared about the tequila anyway.

 

[AudubonB]

No doubt about Buffet. His true colors shined through in this video. As Elon said, Buffet isn’t the kind grandpa he likes to portray.

Watch JONATHAN SCOTT'S POWER TRIP on the PBS Video App

That’s a 1h 23m video. Please provide information as to when the appropriate information appears.

 

[ggies07]

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Unfortunately, there are too many rules around liquor distribution, even in the US. However, we will be selling the lightning bottle & shot glasses worldwide.
----

YAY! I never cared about the tequila anyway.

Sweetness. Now I can pour Scotch into it.

 

[ZachF]

Get into the 500
Pass 500

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Elon is often criticized for not having a better filter for the comments he makes from time to time, but I would bet his feelings towards Buffett are even more sour than he has already stated. It wasn’t much of a stretch for many on TMC to connect the dots between Buffett’s coal investments that are transported in Buffett’s coal train investments to Buffett’s Nevada Energy investments at the time NVEnergy helped to derail Nevada residential and commercial solar incentives, which ultimately resulted in perhaps the final blow to Solar City. At that time it could be argued that Solar City was very well positioned to change the landscape of power generation and distribution in Nevada. The potential savings and the benefit for the environment was so great that some commercial properties such as MGM Grand bought their way out of their existing energy contracts to go solar anyways after this all went down.
Buffett can be praised as an investor, but it is difficult to not be reminded of the effects of those investment efforts on our environment every time another mile-long coal train unnecessarily races down the track towards the desert Southwest on a day so bright and sunny that the desert Southwest could have powered all of its electricity needs locally with solar and it could have been an exporter of solar power as well. Given Elon’s focus on a more sustainable future for the planet, I commend him for being as soft spoken as he has in the past towards Buffett, and I am hopeful Buffett’s position is completely hands off beyond helping to pour bucket loads of additional investment money into TSLA to help make up for time lost in our transition towards a more sustainable future

Excellent post and reminders. IF Berkshire is buying TSLA and Elon finds out, well..... that should be some serious fireworks.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Am I the only one turning into a basket case here? I almost need to start breathing into a brown paper bag. I've been waiting for this moment for a long time, and I know it is going to continue to go up. I want to sell covered calls with 1,000SP for Jan 2022, and 1/30th of my core position near the peak. The problem is the peak is a month away and staring at the ticker is wearing me out! I am more stressed out now than when we were slowing bleeding back down to 400 before the announcement. I need some freaking Valium!!!!

This is a good reminder that inclusion might be a sure thing, but there will be fatigue. This literally cannot go on through the entire buying window, it's still more than a month out. We may very well see a period of major fatigue set in, combine with profit taking, and drive us back down below $450-480 temporarily.

There's no escape, we all know that. The actual mid-Dec buying window is going to be madness and there will be major spikes likely followed by TSLA settling much higher than $500 for a good while. BUT....I'm starting to feel like this absurdly long run up will create a big fatigue dip in a week or two. We shall see.

Understand it's highly unlikely this will be the mood for an entire month. It just can't happen that way. Be ready for $420/$440/$460 with a plan!

 

[Cattledog]

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Unfortunately, there are too many rules around liquor distribution, even in the US. However, we will be selling the lightning bottle & shot glasses worldwide.
----

YAY! I never cared about the tequila anyway.

What shot glasses?