Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well this post totally confused me...

Here's the thing: the Aug 2020 Stock dividend + Cap raise showed us that $5B of forced buying over a 1 mth period drove the SP up ~90%

Now, we're looking out at a MINIMUM of $50B for forced buying over a 1 mth period. Sure it could be a bit more, and the S&P Committee might dick with the rules a tad, but here's the bottom line: SP is gonna zoom.

Supply'n'Demand is a real thing again, now that Tesla knows how to KO the naked shortzes and make them pay double. They're afraid now, and probably aren't foolish enough to repeat their past shenanigans.

So it's down to "What price will it take to make owners sell?" And with Telsa's 5-10 year roadmap in clear focus now, that price is going to be HIGH.

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

Elon has made it clear that the Model S is not very important to Tesla's mission and goals. I can't imagine he feels any different about the Model X. The Cybertruck is entirely a different story. No demand problem.

In terms of car numbers that's correct S and X will not do much to transition from fossil fuels, but in terms of image it's not correct. It's hard to sell popular priced cars if you don't also have image cars, and there's a market segment that likes larger cars so there's an advantage to supplying that demand.

 

[amolina]

Here's the thing: the Aug 2020 Stock dividend + Cap raise showed us that $5B of forced buying over a 1 mth period drove the SP up ~90%

Now, we're looking out at a MINIMUM of $50B for forced buying over a 1 mth period. Sure it could be a bit more, and the S&P Committee might dick with the rules a tad, but here's the bottom line: SP is gonna zoom.

Supply'n'Demand is a real thing again, now that Tesla knows how to KO the naked shortzes and make them pay double. They're afraid now, and probably aren't foolish enough to repeat their past shenanigans.

So it's down to "What price will it take to make owners sell?" And with Telsa's 5-10 year roadmap in clear focus now, that price is going to be HIGH.

Cheers!

Why do you say that Aug 2020 stock dividend event ONLY forced a buy of 5B? I would have thought that there were many more stocks on naked short.

I love it that there is a chance of FSD beta US wide release in the next 1-2 weeks. Media shouldn't be able to avoid the T name then.
For fun fantasies, imagine if they announce 2:1 stock split at the same time when SnP has to buy. Oooof that would be fireworks

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

All posts on IRA and taxes were moved to where they belong: Tax questions and strategies

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why do you say that Aug 2020 stock dividend event ONLY forced a buy of 5B? I would have thought that there were many more stocks on naked short.

I explained the details back in Aug and Sep, live as events unfolded. Maybe subscribe?

For fun fantasies, imagine if they announce 2:1 stock split at the same time when SnP has to buy. Oooof that would be fireworks

You don't seem to have really grok'd the purpose and utility of the Share Dividend: if/when Tesla determines that excessive naked short selling has occurred, to the point where it is artificially suppressing TSLA's share price, THEN it's time for the stock dividend (which flushes the hidden/synthetic/fake shares from the system).

This COULD happen in Dec, if the MMs/Hedgies are so foolish as to try naked shorting again to hold back TLSA's rise due to the S&P 500 addtion. Tesla would be right to do so then, as they have the sole sovereign right to issue equity in Tesla, not the MMs with their abuse of the SEC exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling (SEC Regulation SHO)

Fun Fact: the root word for "regulation" is from the Latin regulatus, (“to direct, rule, regulate”), from regula (“rule”), from regō (“to keep straight, direct, govern, rule”). That's the "sovereignty" that Tesla claims, and the SEC is charged to defend. Word.

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

Here's the thing: the Aug 2020 Stock dividend + Cap raise showed us that $5B of forced buying over a 1 mth period drove the SP up ~90%

Now, we're looking out at a MINIMUM of $50B for forced buying over a 1 mth period. Sure it could be a bit more, and the S&P Committee might dick with the rules a tad, but here's the bottom line: SP is gonna zoom.

Supply'n'Demand is a real thing again, now that Tesla knows how to KO the naked shortzes and make them pay double. They're afraid now, and probably aren't foolish enough to repeat their past shenanigans.

So it's down to "What price will it take to make owners sell?" And with Telsa's 5-10 year roadmap in clear focus now, that price is going to be HIGH.

Cheers!

I’m expecting ARK to release their new price targets around the same time, y’know, to help some TSLA owners figure out at what price they might consider parting with their shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m expecting ARK to release their new price targets around the same time, y’know, to help some TSLA owners figure out at what price they might consider parting with their shares.

Yeah, it's interesting that they're holding back, since the report seems to have been ready for some time. At least Tasha has been teasing it for awhile.

Some folks here have speculated that ARK Invest is holding back to see the outcome of the Fall 2020 FSD Beta test program. If things go well, and Tesla does a general release of FSD in the U.S.A. by Christmas time, then it's "well-howdy"...

Rather than just holding back for dramatic effect, I think ARK Invest is considering revising their Robotaxi timetable, and the revenue streams to match. If FSD beta shows that Robotaxi's are years ahead of analysts presumed timelines, it's gonna accelerate the revenue streams. Bigly.

ARK wants first say. And IMHO, they deserve it.

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

To me the big news is Tesla is building a China factory to build !!10,000!! Superchargers a year. We know earlier this year non-Tesla's were seen charging on Superchargers so this factory can make chargers for anyone. This is the kind of scale needed to get high speed charging more accessible than gas stations. No other car company even thinks about this part.

Yes this really caught my attention for several reasons China currently has 4,000 Supercharger stalls, while they might deploy an additional 4,000-5,000 per year IMO some of these stall are for export Europe and Asia Pacific.
In turn that means Supercharger stalls built in America can be used for North American expansion.

It will take a while for the factory to be built and to ramp, but this is a positive sign.

Another reason it is positive is Supercharger V3 requires some batteries, perhaps not many for 10.000 stalls. But this is one of a number of strong indicators that indicate Tesla assumes it will soon no longer be cell constrained.

Other indicators are :-

• Austin
• Berlin
• Semi
• Roadster
• Energy storage expansion.

IMO there is a weird dynamic happening since Battery Day, it isn't that Tesla is sandbagging projections, merely that others are treating was was presented in Battery Day very conservatively, and assuming some aspects are early stage R&D.

Tesla hasn't said they are doing 100% of Battery Day on day 1, in fact digging into Battery Day in more detail, there was a lot that wasn't said, and some are attempting to fill in the blanks.. conservatively.

In this kind of situation Tesla's plans and actions are a clue to how things are tracking.

Elon is known to be optimistic, but I would describe Tesla's actions since Battery Day as "Full Steam Ahead". So Tesla seems confident that they can build factories, and cell production will ramp in time. Part of it is having the factories in place to maximize the advantage of more cell production, and factory production does take time to ramp.

I think this level of activity is a "step change" from what we have seen previously and confidence in cell production volumes is a big factor.

When Elon talks about anything related to Battery Day it never sounds like early stage R&D to me, mostly I think they have passed the lab stage, and things are in various phases of pilot. Granted others could interpret his comments differently, mostly they are doing that based on the state of industry knowledge and published research. Tesla may have additional "trade secrets".

 

[wycolo]

Kudos per 7k postings, go ahead on!!
--

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Today I bought the most expensive thing I've ever paid for. More expensive than the only apartment I've ever bought 30 years ago. More expensive than any of the two used cars I've ever bought.

I spent less than 1/10th of my gains since S&P inclusion was announced.

Saving the rest for my ticket to Mars.

 

[amolina]

I explained the details back in Aug and Sep, live as events unfolded. Maybe subscribe?



You don't seem to have really grok'd the purpose and utility of the Share Dividend: if/when Tesla determines that excessive naked short selling has occurred, to the point where it is artificially suppressing TSLA's share price, THEN it's time for the stock dividend (which flushes the hidden/synthetic/fake shares from the system).

This COULD happen in Dec, if the MMs/Hedgies are so foolish as to try naked shorting again to hold back TLSA's rise due to the S&P 500 addtion. Tesla would be right to do so then, as they have the sole sovereign right to issue equity in Tesla, not the MMs with their abuse of the SEC exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling (SEC Regulation SHO)

Fun Fact: the root word for "regulation" is from the Latin regulatus, (“to direct, rule, regulate”), from regula (“rule”), from regō (“to keep straight, direct, govern, rule”). That's the "sovereignty" that Tesla claims, and the SEC is charged to defend. Word.

Cheers!

This is what I was implying. Imagine having SP at ATH, but with naked shorts and then Tesla countering it with a stock split.
I hope that you are right about MM's/hedgies not being foolish.


Here is a great FSD video with the latest release 2020.44.15.3. This one should hopefully lead us to US wide release.
One of the best videos with very tricky situations

 

[ReddyLeaf]

If you buy the LEAPS when TSLA is (relatively) low, yes. If you buy at a peak (which could be right now) you're way better off hodling shares.

Source: experience

Yes, absolutely. I have some Jan23 550c that increased yesterday about 1.5% while the actual stock increased more than 3%. WTF. I’m selling those and rolling to something else. Edit: I just figured out why this makes some sense. The option is leveraged about 2:1, so it works out.

 

[PaulusdB]

Hey Cathy - I’ll show you my holdings if you show me yours!

She would probably laugh at how small it was.

Been there; done that; now waiting for CyberTruck.

 

[Off Shore]

that means Supercharger stalls built in America can be used for North, Central and South American expansion.

FTFY

 

[PeterJA]

...Here is a great FSD video with the latest release 2020.44.15.3. This one should hopefully lead us to US wide release.
One of the best videos with very tricky situations

Anyone thinking of selling their TSLA shares at $600 or $800 or $1000 should watch this video. The nuclear bomb that will destroy the auto industry as we know it is coming much sooner than most people expect, and your company is gonna unleash it.

 

[woodisgood]

Today I bought the most expensive thing I've ever paid for. More expensive than the only apartment I've ever bought 30 years ago. More expensive than any of the two used cars I've ever bought.

I spent less than 1/10th of my gains since S&P inclusion was announced.

Saving the rest for my ticket to Mars.

You’re not going to tell us what it is??

 

[CanadaEV]

I explained the details back in Aug and Sep, live as events unfolded. Maybe subscribe?

You don't seem to have really grok'd the purpose and utility of the Share Dividend: if/when Tesla determines that excessive naked short selling has occurred, to the point where it is artificially suppressing TSLA's share price, THEN it's time for the stock dividend (which flushes the hidden/synthetic/fake shares from the system).

This COULD happen in Dec, if the MMs/Hedgies are so foolish as to try naked shorting again to hold back TLSA's rise due to the S&P 500 addtion. Tesla would be right to do so then, as they have the sole sovereign right to issue equity in Tesla, not the MMs with their abuse of the SEC exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling (SEC Regulation SHO)

Fun Fact: the root word for "regulation" is from the Latin regulatus, (“to direct, rule, regulate”), from regula (“rule”), from regō (“to keep straight, direct, govern, rule”). That's the "sovereignty" that Tesla claims, and the SEC is charged to defend. Word.

Cheers!

Your post, in this context, makes this concept of sovereign right crystal clear, thanks.

It’s obvious when you think about it, that those short sellers are trying to appropriate the right to issue shares, false shares as you say, when that is actually exclusively Tesla’s right.

Among his very balanced characteristics, this really highlights what Musk dislikes so much about the short sellers

 

[oakejs]

Yes, absolutely. I have some Jan23 550c that increased yesterday about 1.5% while the actual stock increased more than 3%. WTF. I’m selling those and rolling to something else.

I'm in the same position. My January 550 and 500 calls are just finally in the money after all of this going up. My short term calls I bought way after those are zooming.

 

[oakejs]

I’m expecting ARK to release their new price targets around the same time, y’know, to help some TSLA owners figure out at what price they might consider parting with their shares.

I'm surprised they haven't updated them yet. It's awesome that we're actually getting close so soon to their $7,000 pre-split number.

 

[RubberToe]

You know that EVs are starting to turn the corner when you start seeing ads like this during football games...