Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

 

[Prunesquallor]

To me the big news is Tesla is building a China factory to build !!10,000!! Superchargers a year. We know earlier this year non-Tesla's were seen charging on Superchargers so this factory can make chargers for anyone. This is the kind of scale needed to get high speed charging more accessible than gas stations. No other car company even thinks about this part.

Given the pathetic state of non-Tesla charging in the US, I’m wondering if there is a point at which EV-maker wannabes just capitulate and pay Tesla to build SCs that they can use. If Tesla then (finally) comes out with adapters, the competition is basically paying for expansion of a Tesla-compatible network.

 

[Robocop]

Given the pathetic state of non-Tesla charging in the US, I’m wondering if there is a point at which EV-maker wannabes just capitulate and pay Tesla to build SCs that they can use. If Tesla then (finally) comes out with adapters, the competition is basically paying for expansion of a Tesla-compatible network.

I have always expected this to happen eventually, the question for me is who's the first OEM to capitulate? My instinct says VW. Note: I think this would be a great move for whatever OEM finally give up. Imagine a 2025 VW EV and the dealer can say 'It can charge nationwide on all Tesla superchargers!'. People will be into that.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So has it been established that no decision would actually be announced until later (I thought I saw a December date in another post that I can't find now like Dec 4 or Dec 12) - meaning likely no change in the status quo until that December date despite the November 30 deadline?

It's my understanding that Nov 30th(I believe after close) it will be announced whether they're doing the inclusion in 1 or 2 tranches. IMO for our purposes it's hard to tell which would be better, but both will still be awesome. The minor concern I'm expressing is that they might do something bananas that at least partially eliminates the squeeze. Something like cancel the inclusion. Obviously highly highly improbable.

 

[Tslynk67]

The key is going to be volume today. Is Frankfurt going to blow up on volume or stay in the 90K / day average over the past 65 days?

Half that...

 

[S3XY]

With the loss of Jack Rickard this year I'm thankful that we still have Sandy Munroe to inform us mere laymen. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 

[WarpedOne]

Something like cancel the inclusion

That would be most awesome... cancel it now only to be forced to include it in a few years at 10x the current valuation.
They missed their best train, all subsequent ones will be worse and worse.

Inclusion is not bad for S&P, non-inclusion is. And is also getting progressively worse.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Given the pathetic state of non-Tesla charging in the US, I’m wondering if there is a point at which EV-maker wannabes just capitulate and pay Tesla to build SCs that they can use. If Tesla then (finally) comes out with adapters, the competition is basically paying for expansion of a Tesla-compatible network.

My thought was to massively improve poor China Supercharger network (partly due to limits on where Tesla-only chargers can be put) and to extend out as part of roads and belt. So tesla chargers made in China could be internal to China, added to roads and belt trunk routes and sold in nearby countries. Huge market, $$$. Even bigger if Tesla open to others (they may have to, in order to use good locations near motorways that are public land)

Lots of detail...

Spoiler

1) China added 1 million chargers - no idea kw speed, could be 3.5-50kw, possibly faster - China Builds World's Largest Network of Electric Car Chargers

2) Expand in line with transmission / electricity export - "China has built more Ultra High Voltage Direct Current (UHVDC) transmission lines than anyone else in the world. These transmission lines use 1100kV instead of 800kV which is a significant technological step up." China's Grid Innovations and the Belt-and-Road Initiative

Transmission lines:-

3) Roads & Belt progress - China's Belt And Road Initiative Opens Up Unprecedented Opportunities

Tesla V2 Superchargers have both connectors in Europe, CCS and Tesla S type.

V3 in Europe - CCS only. Possibly needs to mod car, or to get adapter, didn't quite understand video below. Others with older S and X would know.

Still picture of Tesla V3 CCS and adapter plugging into older S/X.

Video links (quite old) - view picture below

to

 

[S3XY]

The thing is... when I buy a (monthly/LEAP) calls, it's rather intuitive - the SP is/has been held down and the future looks bright, with lots of catalysts and shiny things, and inevitably it works-out, anywhere from 3x to 220x (to date).

But here you are with actual numbers and projections. Where do you get those from? Only tool I've seen is Long call calculator: Purchase call options, but that's not the easiest beast to divine.

Considering your success to this point why change anything in your decision making? Those sterile numbers might cause you to miss out on an opportunity you might normally take or vice versa.

 

[Sudre]

Given the pathetic state of non-Tesla charging in the US, I’m wondering if there is a point at which EV-maker wannabes just capitulate and pay Tesla to build SCs that they can use. If Tesla then (finally) comes out with adapters, the competition is basically paying for expansion of a Tesla-compatible network.

In the USA, F'em. Let THEM build the adapter to convert Tesla to whatever their crappy plug is. (using a TESLA spec that is) There will be no need for a Tesla owner in the USA to use any of the other brands chargers in a few years.... anywhere in the US. Why should Tesla bother making an adapter so their cars can use those poorly designed contraptions? Let the other car owners carry around a giant clunky adapter in their trunk so they can use Superchargers.

I am very happy with the small light Tesla handle. I don't need a monster size Combo plug.

 

[Tslynk67]

Did a test drive of Model X. But its just wayyyy tooo big for the European cities. Model Y would be perfect for me, however,
I am so annoyed that I don't need a car living in Berlin, but I really wanna buy it just to be a part of the revolution .
My GF would probably not approve


View attachment 612017

You have your own GigaFactory?

 

[Tslynk67]

Considering your success to this point why change anything in your decision making? Those sterile numbers might cause you to miss out on an opportunity you might normally take or vice versa.

Indeed, I don't use the tool myself, I tried it and I just get a headache... I also used it to run some simulations on the different returns for the same investment on 6 month, 1 & 2 year calls for the same premium - got surprisingly similar returns, but considerably less risk with the longer strikes, obviously.

 

[Robocop]

Keep checking my brokerage account out of habit, knowing nothing has changed. When can we get this 'thanksgiving' over with?

 

[Mo City]

Indeed, I don't use the tool myself, I tried it and I just get a headache... I also used it to run some simulations on the different returns for the same investment on 6 month, 1 & 2 year calls for the same premium - got surprisingly similar returns, but considerably less risk with the longer strikes, obviously.

What option got you a 220x return? That's insane.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like IV went up

Jan 2021: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Options Chain - Yahoo Finance

 

[UncaNed]

Now I'm feeling pretty good about enthusiastically encouraging my girlfriend to buy 45 shares of Tesla (I have a little less than that). I cannot believe how much FUD I get from friends who JUST DON'T GET IT no matter how many times I explain things. Their loss.

Am I crazy for wanting to sell my lightly-used P3D- to buy more TSLA? I barely drive it during the pandemic. Hmmmm. Decisions, decisions.

Not crazy. TSLA = good.
I've encouraged a few close friends who've helped me over the years - the ones who will listen and take my suggestion seriously - to open accounts with the same brokerage I use, then gift via internal account transfer a LEAP and perhaps a share or two. No tax write off, but its an easy way to play Santa Claus and gets more people investing in TSLA which is good for all of us.

 

[Tslynk67]

What option got you a 220x return? That's insane.

That was the $1 per contract Jan 2021 $650's that @Green Pete gave us the heads-up on last September, sold prematurely in February for $220... Big mistake, currently trading at $2,232 (accounting for split).

That's $2,231,000.00 gains from a single $1000 trade if I had held...

And the June 2022 $1400's I bought bottom(ish) of the C19 dip, for $4.4k and sold there weeks later for $12k, current ask $1680 split-adjusted...

The $1 $650's were a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, I think, totally misplaced, but I was too inexperienced to take advantage and then to hold longer. So year, I traded that $1000 up to $1m anyway, but did it the hard way!

 

[Nocturnal]

What option got you a 220x return? That's insane.

I had a few that I purchased in spring 2019 that wound up at 3000% or so. Sadly I was just starting out with options and only had small amounts in those. (50 bucks or so)

 

[wipster]

Keep checking my brokerage account out of habit, knowing nothing has changed. When can we get this 'thanksgiving' over with?

Check here just to stay entertained... won't be moving much in a bit, but then comes tomorrow:
Tradegate Exchange

Edit: check again starting at 11 pm pst tonight. Might be a small indicator to the half day action tomorrow. BTW, how late will after-hours be shown tomorrow? Normally stops at 5pm pst on e*trade...

 

[FireMedic]

shocking, I know. Yet another hit piece aimed at our beloved Tesla because they won’t pay advertising. So glad management is holding string. Cuz **** ‘em, YouTubees will pick up the slack and do real journalism.