Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

What does the note literally say? I bet it is something about the analyst’s estimate.

IMO, it's not really material. One could have guessed this from the CC call last week, anywhere from 0-5% margin to start and ramping up through the year.

 

[Singuy]

The weight is correct for the LR AWD, i guess there is a chance the new LR RWD being offered are actually software locked AWD, but i think more likely it is a copy paste error.

The MR weight hasn't changed since it was released, if the pack design has changed it is possible they just forgot to update it.

For SR+ though, the weight is a completely new number added to the system. It's hard to see how they could easily have got this number wrong, and this number alone validates my whole analysis regarding the fixed battery pack weight.

SR weight was also increased to 3,627lbs from 3,549lbs before Thursday. Again it is possible this was a copy paste error from SR+, but given it was deliberately updated I think that's maybe less likely.

So in summary, I'm pretty confident the SR+ weight is correct and hence the SR+,MR and LR all use exactly the same pack structure. For SR there is some possibility the weight is completely wrong - it could be that it is not actually software locked and does already exclusively use a new pack design.

So you are assuming that the second motor doesn't add any new weight to the AWD?

 

[Alphacrux]

David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run
David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run

 

[ReflexFunds]

So you are assuming that the second motor doesn't add any new weight to the AWD?

No, I said the 4,072 lbs AWD weight is correct, so either the new LR RWD is a software locked AWD or the RWD weight on the website is incorrect. I would lean heavily toward the LR RWD weight on the website being incorrect and in reality it still weighs 3,814 lb as when it was last on sale last year. The added weight and cost penalty seems far too high to justify software locking. I don't know how software locking would even work to switch off a whole motor.

 

[Singuy]

Yes - instead of booking the profit when sold, you have to spread it over term of the lease - AND - you take a hit if the resale price is lower than the residual.

More over - how long would the lease postpone the need for $35k Model 3 ? I mean the 400k reservations 3 years back was based on this $35k figure. Is 3 years too early to actually introduce that $35k model ?!? Its not like Tesla wants to sell a few thousand cars a year of Model 3 - it wants to sell 500k cars a year. That is how many Accords Honda sold last year ! It will put Model 3 in the top 20 cars/LCVs globally.


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It's not about being released early. Everyone would love to see the 35k version being released ahead of schedule if Tesla did it without looking like it has done everything possible to get it there. They cut staff twice and closed stores(which I don't see any of this being a bad thing), but it absolutely shows the SR is barely scraping by when it comes to profitability which means the 35k version is too early to be released.

I don't know, too many numbers for me to wrap my head around. But they have essentially dropped the M3's prices by thousands, deprecating these cars overnight. I just feel that going the leasing route without dropping prices and then wait a few more quarters where the SR can actually be profitable without having to do dramatic things will have better optics.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I did...it tasted a lot like crow.

Oh No...the cone of shame!

I have that same rug, with a golden retriever on it, in my living room as I type this.

 

[Singuy]

No, I said the 4,072 lbs AWD weight is correct, so either the new LR RWD is a software locked AWD or the RWD weight on the website is incorrect. I would lean heavily toward the LR RWD weight on the website being incorrect and in reality it still weighs 3,814 lb as when it was last on sale last year. The added weight and cost penalty seems far to high to justify software locking. I don't know how software locking would even work to switch off a whole motor.

Ah, misread your comment.

 

[30seconds]

There are two ways I look at 3 SR demand

1. 3-series/ C-class/ A4: The lower trim levels mirror SR pretty well with the upper price levels going beyond the 3 but with inferior performance

2. Camry & Accord: start in the low to mid 20s and go to the mid 30s

Obviously the Camry / Accords outsell the Germans in the US by some margin. But both the Model S and the early trade ins for the model 3 showed that many buyers were moving up a price point (or two) to get a Tesla. This would imply that the relevant market is larger than just #1.

At 500k Model 3 production I would expect 250 to be US with the rest to be EU + China.

Since the Camry & Accord alone sell about 500k in the US alone I don’t expect a demand problem with the 3.

 

[anthonyj]

We're in the hole folks. How low can this stay before the MY reveal? I'm gonna being buying next weeks calls if this goes much lower. (I already picked up August and September 400 calls today.)

What will be the close on Friday, the day after the reveal? 300, 310 calls should profit IMO.

Ark and the other hardcore bulls are buying. What about Fidelity, T. Rowe? Without doubt, a very large part is short selling. Screw MS and their BS FUDstrucker notes! Okay rambling over.

Fidelity sold around 500k shares just last month from two of their funds. Not referring to Q4 holdings either

 

[Unpilot]

Oh No...the cone of shame!

I have that same rug, with a golden retriever on it, in my living room as I type this.

Yeah she had a cancer growth removed.

 

[EVNow]

They cut staff twice and closed stores(which I don't see any of this being a bad thing), but it absolutely shows the SR is barely scraping by when it comes to profitability which means the 35k version is too early to be released.

This is not how it can work - given new interior and pack - they have to slowly work their way on SR margins. There is a ramp up involved - you can't get to 20% margin from day one. They will have needed margins when the ramp up is complete. BTW, they don't even need 20% margin on base SR - since people will add options which have high margins.

Correct time to introduce a new model is when you have positive margins - because every car you sell adds to the bottomline. Otherwise you are leaving money on the table and your customers are buying competitors cars.

 

[hacer]

...

• According to the very reliable Alpha Hat GPS tracking estimate Tesla delivered 11.5k units in the slowest month, January, in the U.S. alone. ...

I think Alpha Hat has an unassailable method for measuring deliveries. They use (probably fuzzy) geolocation of (probably hashed) IMEI numbers from cell phones. The thing is that all Tesla cars are themselves cell phones. This allows Alpha Hat to be able to do something like this: a new IMEI (#X) was first seen in Freemont California, but recently has been located near the Cleveland-Lyndhurst Ohio Tesla Service center. A different IMEI (#Y) that is often seen in Canton Ohio was observed briefly near the Lyndhurst Tesla service center, but is now back in Canton. Also that #X IMEI that first appeared in Freemont is now often located in Canton in close proximity to #Y. Conclusion: a customer in Canton OH, has taken delivery of a New Tesla vehicle. They know the car is new because they can date when it first came on-line in Freemont.

You really can't get any more solid than that.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Yeah she had a cancer growth removed.

OT
Hope they got it all and she is up and around quickly.

 

[30seconds]

The one thing I don’t like right now is that it seems that a large holder is dumping shares

 

[heltok]

David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run
David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

The one thing I don’t like right now is that it seems that a large holder is dumping shares

Probably just dumping shares to buy calls at the bottom I can't imagine bailing out of the stock now. I just hope prices are still this low when my tax refund comes back.

 

[EVNow]

I think Alpha Hat has an unassailable method for measuring deliveries. They use (probably fuzzy) geolocation of (probably hashed) IMEI numbers from cell phones. The thing is that all Tesla cars are themselves cell phones. This allows Alpha Hat to be able to do something like this: a new IMEI (#X) was first seen in Freemont California, but recently has been located near the Cleveland-Lyndhurst Ohio Tesla Service center. A different IMEI (#Y) that is often seen in Canton Ohio was observed briefly near the Lyndhurst Tesla service center, but is now back in Canton. Also that #X IMEI that first appeared in Freemont is now often located in Canton in close proximity to #Y. Conclusion: a customer in Canton OH, has taken delivery of a New Tesla vehicle. They know the car is new because they can date when it first came on-line in Freemont.

You really can't get any more solid than that.

Do they really get ALL the geo data (i.e. every minute or so) for ALL the radio devices in US ? That's too large a data set. May be they can get only radios that Tesla uses … or just once a day sample ? It is definitely an interesting methodology.

 

[Krugerrand]

Expect a market turnaround shortly. Before to call for prayers with offering of food to Buddha and spirit of the house and immediate place radiating outwards, I underwent inspection. My SM (significant mother, sargeant major, wife) noticed my pyjama pants were wrong side out for the second time in two days. That has now been corrected. Not an advice.

It happens. At least she didn’t let you leave the house like that. Nothing ruins a Sunday morning more than seeing an old man bending over a freezer in the grocery store, looking for that perfect pork shoulder, with his pajama pants inside out.

 

[EVNow]

The one thing I don’t like right now is that it seems that a large holder is dumping shares

Why do you think so ?

May be one of the funds is actually taking the advice of some analyst to heart !!

 

[Sudre]

The one thing I don’t like right now is that it seems that a large holder is dumping shares

I was pondering this myself and might have an idea. Typically when Tesla starts a new vehicle they go to the market for funds. Even tho Elon and Tesla have made it CLEAR Tesla will not seek funds in the form of stock, a large holder may think a new stock offer is coming soon. They may be selling their shares to load up on the new fresh shares they think are coming out. Boy are they going to be disappointed.