Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Didn't realise that the other engine had green exhaust for a split second also.

Just like this thread when somebody posts “GREEN” right before a crash.

 

[Tyler34]

MEANWHILE, BACK IN REALITY...

GM is the first manufacturer to completely ditch traditional engines

2017 story about GM going "all electric"

Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says

2013 story where VW says they will be the biggest EV maker in the world by 2018


Not to mention in 2017 a bunch of other manufacturers were not just "considering" EVs- they were making and selling EVs

Problem was- they almost universally sucked.

An incomplete list of 2017 EVs you could have bought (or tried to- since there were relatively few of any of these actually sold)

Fiat had the 500e... with its 84 miles of range for $33,000 MSRP
Nissan has the leaf, then 107 miles of range for $30,680 MSRP
BMW had the i3, 81-114 miles of range for $42,400 MSRP
Ford had the focus electric, 115 miles for $29,120
Hyundai the Ioniq, 124 miles of range for $29,500
Volkswagen the e-golf, 125 miles of range for $28,995
Chevy had the bolt, with 236 miles of range for $36,620
Kia the Soul EV- 93 miles of range for $32,250
Mercedes had the B250e- with 84 miles of range for $39,900.

But yeah nobody else was "even considering" EVs...

And of course it's the year Teslas 300+ mile Model 3 launched to joint it's S and X models.




Like how GM did in 2017? How's that worked out so far?



Well... a model.... the range is terrible, the price is laughable, and they hilariously use the word "turbo" for one of the models despite it not having an actual turbo. But yes they did release one. It's not really "competition" for anything except maybe the gas version of a Porsche though.




Not really though.

This is a pretty classic technique for the FUDsters- they know Tesla delivers to geos differentially so they move around where sales are lower one month ignoring where they're higher another month.

This move doubles down on that since the ID.3 was delayed for so long what you're seeing right now is all the pre-orders finally being delivered- not new demand for the car.

Tesla sold almost no cars in Europe in October because they physically didn't have hardly any there to sell. Meanwhile in September they sold 18,877 of them.


In fact Tesla sold almost the same number of cars in the EU in just September as VW sold ID.3s in September AND October combined.

If you add the tiny # of cars Tesla did sell in October they outsold the ID.3 over those 2 months.

It's only when you get into cherry picked nonsense like "these 17 specific days in November, specifically in Norway" that Teslas sales look bad.





Yes. Nearly 3 years ago.

Source for that:

Ford is throwing $11 billion at its electric car problem

The story mentions this is after they had ALREADY announced back in 2015 they'd be spending 4.5 billion on EVs and have 13 different electric vehicles on the road by 20202.

How'd that turn out again?

Ford, like all the legacy makers, "announces" lots of things that never happen.

Competition by press release isn't a viable long term strategy though.






Well, you're half right.

Ford is releasing the Mach E.

Well, 50,000 of them... most going to Europe.

Why so few?

They can't get any more batteries than that.

it's almost like there's more than just a cathode and anode or something.

And of course Ford doesn't make the Hummer, electric or otherwise. GM does- and they're not releasing one this year.

The six-figure-price launch edition will be out in late 2021. The only slightly less hilariously overpriced "cheaper" versions will come sometime in the 2022-2024 timeframe.

This should go in the posts of merit thread @mods

 

[wipster]

Is it Monday yet?

 

[CyberDutchie]

Is there anybody (much more informed than me) that has a sensible estimate of just how many new larger 4680 cells they may have produced, and what percentage of current S/X they could fill with those cells?
It would be amazing to see an S/X refresh with new cells.
I suspect elon will actually genuinely stick to his mantra of no yearly update, but regular minor changes. I can see the 2021 model S/X maybe having some new paint options, maybe a chrome delete, maybe new cells allowing faster charging and longer range, but I strongly suspect that the S/X body design or interior is not about to change.

This S/X production line shutdown is very exciting news for me. I’ve been planning to finally replace my 2016 Model X with the current model, and can’t wait to see what improvements are in store for Model X. Hopefully a big jump in range from the 4680 cells, and dare I say interior refresh?

I’m not counting on plaid coming to Model X and would not spent that kind of money just to get faster performance. Model X is not made for racing or track anyway, but it remains in my opinion the best car Tesla ever made.

Stand-out feature to me is the automatic door operation—it’s something I enjoy every single day when picking up hot drinks from the coffee shop, one in each hand. Magically the Model X driver-side door opens as it senses I’m approaching. While everyone else fuddling with keys and placing their coffees on the roof—these are the kind of features that make the product so much better and enjoyable.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the Model S/X upgrade is switching to the new aluminum body casting process from the Model Y. Elon mentioned that the S/X also use cast aluminum body parts, but they require heat treating while the Y doesnt because of a new alloy. The new castings could result in higher margins for the S&X.

A better surprise would be if they’re using 4680 structural packs, but I think we’re a year out from that.

At the very least we better be getting heat pump & octovalve.

All three, plus refreshed interior, new hvac vents, and plaid please. I will definitely be looking at trading in for the new model when the stock exceeds $2000 in 2022.

 

[GOVA]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

Apparently, legalizing ganja was good. Our Canadian friends were first in this regard.
In any case, WTF is volvo?

 

[Big Time]

Apparently, legalizing ganja was good. Our Canadian friends were first in this regard.
In any case, WTF is volvo?

Volvo is a car company from Sweden owned currently by Geely from CHINA. Volvo has been around since the early 1900s. Some of their claim to fame comes from the invention of the two band seatbelt. Known as the safest car on the road for decades. Red blocks and white blocks bulletproof engines. My favorite thing about volvos is their headrest designs. Volvos headrest designer I believe worked for Teslas interior department. Volvo used to manufacture great 5 cylinder cars but now only makes 4 cylinder cars (and less). Volvo is a great company who makes great autos. Volvo was also making some pretty ground breaking engines around 2015. I consider them some of the last great inventions in regards to ICE engines. 3 cylinders. Or supercharged engines that have twin turbos also. 3 boosts.
The headrests though.

my fav models are p1800s from early 60s
The Amazon is amazing model

edit: China not Japan

 

[mickificki]

Volvo is a car company from Sweden owned currently by Geely from Japan. Volvo has been around since the early 1900s. Some of their claim to fame comes from the invention of the two band seatbelt. Known as the safest car on the road for decades. Red blocks and white blocks bulletproof engines. My favorite thing about volvos is their headrest designs. Volvos headrest designer I believe worked for Teslas interior department. Volvo used to manufacture great 5 cylinder cars but now only makes 4 cylinder cars (and less). Volvo is a great company who makes great autos. Volvo was also making some pretty ground breaking engines around 2015. I consider them some of the last great inventions in regards to ICE engines. 3 cylinders. Or supercharged engines that have twin turbos also. 3 boosts.
The headrests though.

my fav models are p1800s from early 60s
The Amazon is amazing model

Slight correction, geely is a Chinese company.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nawh, mate, Tesla already has 90K installed S/X production capacity at Fremont, but they're only building them at about a 75K-ish run-rate right now.

It's an upgrade, for sure. 99% likely to be the upgrade they been talking about for 18 mths (since 'Plaid' stormed the Nürburgring in Summer 2019). Only question is, how much new tech will this upgrade involve. Potential new features:

• Tri-motor drivetrain (most likely feature)
• Rear aluminum subframe casting (might be assoc. w. dual mtr rear drive)
• Front aluminum subframe (a bigger "if" since "Raven" has SRPM front mtr)
• Integrated cast AL bty pack w. 4680 cells (would be great; maybe not ready?)

So this may be a 'hybrid' upgrade, done in stages, until we see the reborn Model S/X emerge, fully-formed, from its Holiday chrysalis.

Cheers!

I wonder if Tesla has any casting machines available in Fremont to allocate to S&X. From @gabeincal 's videos there are only two and I doubt one would be enough to support MY production.

Does anyone know the unit capacity of the casting machines, or whether the forms can be switched for different models in a reasonable period of time?

 

[Rohan]

The fanboy in me wants to endlessly speculate that this is something to do with a refresh. Walking through a few points:

1: Plaid version will have the Structural Pack made from 4680's, and more motors. The necessary redesign of the floorpan facilitates the return of the rear-facing seats with more room than before.

2: Tesla will NOT produce two versions of the Model S simultaneously, in other words, all production will switch away from 18650 to the 4680 Structural Pack.

3: non-Plaid version of refreshed Model S will have more range than Plaid, but that's the only advantage.

4: when will the non-Plaid refreshed version go on sale?

5) how does the Model X fit into all this? To say that the current Model S+X are both "generation 2" vehicles - well, that's true for the drivetrains, but everything above that is different. Model X began deliveries at end of 2015... IMO doesn't really need a major interior or exterior refresh, and certainly not to allow for more space in the rear. There is nothing to stop them from upgrading the Model S floorpan, but leaving the Model X to use 18650 doesn't make a lot of sense, since a) needs more space at the factory to do that and b) 4680 is frikkin' cool and everything should have it, c) the Model X outsells the Model S since it's an SUV. And it's the flagship in some ways. I'm happy to be wrong about a Model X refresh. Another observation is that Tesla's design department has basically "sped up" over the last few years. I was genuinely impressed that they were able to reveal two brand-new models on the same day - that is a tax on your design department, unless they have grown and sped up. And that was 3 years ago. Since then they have created only the Model Y, borrowing many existing Model 3 parts. Perhaps they can redesign both S and X and launch both body refreshes simultaneously. This certainly saves a lot of assembly line headaches - bye bye 18650 at Fremont, hello mature large car company that can do major refreshes to more than one model simultaneously.

SO -

After a trickle of old-style Model S+X deliveries through much of Q1 2021, Tesla will reveal and begin to deliver the new (and probably only slightly altered exterior) Model S+X, both with 4680 Structural Packs a Long Range version and a Performance version which is basically an "unlocked Long Range" sort of thing whose motors draw more current. Maybe even a software upgrade will be able to uncork it. Later in 2021... the 3-motor Plaid is revealed. As usual, X wan't go as far or accelerate as fast as S, because... physics. Also there will be a Plaid Model X revealed at the same time as the S, but you cannot order a Plaid X today for Osborning reasons; they have confined the Osborne Effect to Model S for now. We could even say that Tesla would have preferred to say nothing about the Plaid S at Battery Day, but their hand had already been played earlier in the year.

Additional notes: perhaps Tesla said "late 2021" for deliveries of Plaid Model S+X because, on the day of Battery Day, they simply did not know how much time it was going to take to solve 4680 production issues. If things go badly, they can begin deliveries on time - late 2021. But if things go better than badly, or even, "well," they might be able to move ahead with Plaid deliveries earlier in the year - something no-one will criticise them for. Perhaps the signs are pointing towards that. (I love confirmation bias /sarcasm)

We should look for clues like "downtime at the factory" or "reduced numbers of employee cars in the parking lot" and those other clues that indicate switchovers like Twitter posts from @greentheonly. Finally... if the Structural Pack is everything I understand it's supposed to be, there could be cast pieces at front and rear of the battery for the new S+X. Perhaps our drone pilots look for different shapes getting cast?

There's no need for any of that. I ordered my AP1 MS mere days before the upgrade to AP2. My delivery date for my new MS LR is 23 December. You do the maths . On the other hand, Merry Christmas

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Didn't S/X prices for new orders from Europe go up substantially a few weeks ago? Can't remember how much but maybe €5k?. Cars that couldn't be delivered until February. Plenty of posts at the time about at least something must be upgraded/refreshed. The price hike made no sense otherwise. Fits perfectly with shutdown until mid January and ships leaving early February. This also fits well with reports of new US orders getting 8-12 weeks delivery.

 

[Lessmog]

View attachment 617108
final push

Notice the absence of S/X in the offer? Support for the theory of a substantial upgrade to those models, IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

There is probably a truck coming that can work a little better for a small business than the cyber truck. That vehicle is perhaps too distracting from the messaging a small business needs to project - or thinks they need to project. But I have been wrong on styling before.

Electricians are small businessmen too! And what could project a better image for an electrician than a Cybertruck?

 

[Tslynk67]

I honestly want to see what happens on Mon/Tue of next week. Right now I don’t have a great conviction.

I agree with Frank that people should be OK to lose whatever they are betting in the short term, no emotions, very similar to how you place a bet in poker or manage your bankroll.

Here’s a random thought: We know MMs like citadel have owned more than 5% of TSLA. What is stopping them from running the price up next week, spike IV, sell lots of call options and then dump all of their shares to S&P at a pre negotiated price on Sep18th? You get a great price on your shares and you kill all the options for the week of Dec 24th. I haven’t thought this through yet but would love for someone to poke holes in this theory.

Yes, I've also been wondering what Citadel might do - they bought all those shares early this year, if I recall well, and have been using them to manipulate the call markets. They could indeed rain on our parade next week as they have been doing all year.

 

[StealthP3D]

Trust Lora to Kolodnorise the article and ignore the obvious (to us) reason for the shutdown.

I'm willing to give Lora the benefit of the doubt on this one. Maybe she's not ignoring the obvious - I know it seems unfathomable, but maybe she's just too stupid to see the obvious.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, I've also been wondering what Citadel might do - they bought al those shares early this year, if I recall well, and have been using them to manipulate the call markets. They could indeed rain on our parade next week as they have been doing all year.

It would take a lot of shares to be effective so I think they would need help from others. But, yeah.

 

[StealthP3D]

Now that you pointed it out.......that is a very....very select word to use in that way. If this ends up being refresh related, that's some master trolling from the Tesla team

Do you have have any doubt it's refresh related?

 

[Buckminster]

OT - mining and anode material:

I am watching this from "now you know" wondering about whether to get into graphite miners.

I keep hearing that Tesla will be using a graphite anode loaded with an increasing amount of Silicon (up to 30% or so). If that is correct, maybe these miners are worth looking into.

However, I thought that Tesla were not going to use graphite at all.

Slides 41 to 44 here:
Plus 1:05 here:

Thoughts?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A lot of us are pondering what next week will bring. HODL'ers for the show, short term traders for the gains.

Many people here and on other social media are convinced we will see a (sharp) rise. And there are also a lot of people who are convinced it will be followed by a (temporary) drop. The social media are full of this scenario. As a result a lot of speculators, short term traders and even stockholders who would like to take some gains off the table are on edge. They are afraid of missing the top and of getting caught up in a crash. That's probably one of the explanations for last week's drop (the other one being 8 million new shares dumped in the market in one day).

The most important question is ofcourse: will there be enough supply to fulfill the demand for 130 millions shares by index funds and other tracking funds? Have speculators hoarded enough shares to flip them? If they haven't, we will see a rise until enough investors are prepared to sell.

If the speculators bought enough shares and there is no disbalance between demand and supply, the second big question becomes: at what price are they willing to part with those shares? And at what price will other short term traders try to lock in their gains, mostly on short term call options?

Everyone will have their own price target for locking in the speculative gains. How much will be enough? It's unlikely they will settle for 600 or 650 (they could have sold at that price already, and the more nervous ones probably already did). So they would look for a higher price. But how much higher? 670? 700? 750? Even more? And what happens if the price doesn't rise or not much? Will they head for the exits? Timing the height and date of the top is the million dollar question for traders. It will be a case of who blinks first.

 

[vikings123]

Yes, I've also been wondering what Citadel might do - they bought al those shares early this year, if I recall well, and have been using them to manipulate the call markets. They could indeed rain on our parade next week as they have been doing all year.

It would take a lot of shares to be effective so I think they would need help from others. But, yeah.

It appears that Citadel does not own a significant amount of shares anymore. I checked @FrankSG ’s research and Q3 holders. I did not see Citadel’s name in that list. So maybe not a big deal. Either the market already has a plan for the inclusion or the folks in this forum are so much in tune with TSLA that we think this whole supply demand scenario is too good to be true.

So much of Tesla stock price movement is tied to options trading. The stock usually peaks when IV is at elevated levels. While the overall IV has stayed at decent levels, short term IV is definitely very high. I realize a vast majority of us have already placed short term bets but I would be very careful about getting in now. The risk/reward is not so great. That said this is a historical event and you don’t want to have any regrets. Just be prepared to lose it all. I still like our odds.