I think I’ve hit a nerve and I definitely don’t want to be a Tesla party pooper..
I’m an engineer by trade and am a very active investor in individual stocks - the Performance MY I bought this year is the best car I’ve ever owned! But I digress and I’m glad we can have a discussion about the future of Tesla!
To address your points!
1.) Yes talk is cheap! However, you can’t deny what is happening in the industry today. Volvo is committed to moving all electric.. Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has committed a $11.5B spend on EV and the Mach E and Hummer EV are coming out this year. Most if not all manufactures are realizing the advantages of electrification and it is happening!
2.) I am definitely not a battery expert - but they are essentially a cathode and anode in an electrolyte. There is space for improvements and the recent solid state developments in batteries are quite promising (and not owned by Tesla). I find it hard that there would be any scarcity in battery supply - this is simply a manufacturing issue with no reason (that I can think of) of why production couldn’t ramp up with demand. It’s not feasible that Tesla would try to “buy” all the world’s battery production to keep them away from competitors even if this was possible.
3.) Saying all other car manufactures don’t have the capability for engineering or manufacturing is not true! They’ve been at it for a much longer time and it’ll be hard for Tesla to match the build quality of Audi and Mercedes EV.
Tesla does have a lead.. they also have real world self driving feedback that other manufactures don’t have.. This lead is why Tesla will have a great 2021. I think everyone can agree there are other EVs on the market today and there will be many more a year from now. They will all have a version of self driving, have 300-600 mile range, same performance and tech. What will Tesla’s advantage be at that point and how can Tesla maintain the majority of the market share they will need to justify the market cap.
I know it’s not a favourable scenario.. but as other manufactures EV sales start to climb the market will realize Tesla can’t maintain the market share needed to justify the astronomical share price.
Thank you to you and your brethren for these talking points that have continued to suppress the TSLA stock these past years, we appreciate the discount you have afforded us! Feel free to continue shouting these from the rooftops so we can continue.