Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dakh]

Thank you for the advice, I will heed it. One of the defenses I keep repeating to everybody is that the money is locked up in untouchable for many years, I know that really is not going to change anything but I’d like to think it slows people down in thinking that I’m not gonna go out and spend it on literally anything while some struggle to make ends meet. I’ve literally told everybody that if my house burns down tomorrow, or if I find myself with a big hospital bill, I would get an apartment or a loan and not use any of this investment for anything other accrue value over the next several years.

So far, the mental toll and my gut is telling me this probably wasn’t worth it even though there have not been any obvious negative consequences thus far, I am no longer on the same playing field is any of my family or friends which is pretty isolating when everyone knows it. On the other hand it was also isolating that I could not talk to anybody IRL, that I had to lead this secret life where I lied to people about financial matters, and that was almost as worse to me. I’ve traded one form of isolation to another form of isolation, let’s see if this door leads to greener pastures. sorry mods for the OT rant.

If not for some of this forum's members being fairly open about their life-changing gains and how they got them, I would not be in that boat myself at the moment. I am super grateful to them that they have shown me it is possible, and even supported me in my path there. So consider your going public as a service to others in showing them that this path is there for those willing to walk it. Someone out there might have picked this up like I did from your example and will thank you later.

Also, as it should, being on the edge and a bit over the edge shows you where you got work to do. Personally I am currently using my friends as accountability partners: I told a number of them I'm going to quit my day job in September (they already know the financial side), both because we're always open with such things, and in this case I'm concerned I'm gonna chicken out. After working an intense and demanding job for 25 years, it is scary to jump off that cliff. Nothing but 100% support from them.

Having close and meaningful connections with other people is the leading indicator of life expectancy and health. Think about it. If your current inner circle of people is so messed up when it comes to material well being, either become a leader in un-messing this up, or find a group of people who have a healthier relationship with wealth.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

You could give anyone who bought FSD a credit if they want. When subscription starts they make a choice. Keep it forever on that car only. Or get a credit for months since bought at new subscription price.

So if you bought for $8,000 43 months ago (not sure what price was then) and subscription price is $100/month you have spent $4,300 and have 3,700 in credit against future subscription. If Tesla feels some of those early months was not worth full price they can award extra for those.

Again, there would be a choice. Everyone should be happy.

Letting all FSD owner until now transfer FSD forever would be an extremely costly thing to do. There must be a couple of hundred thousand who has bought now. If only 100,000 continue to drive Tesla for 20 years after they get their next Tesla that would be a loss of 100,000x12 monthsx20 yearsx100/month=$2,4 billion.

If it's 200,000 owners and $200/months then it's $9,6 billion.

I would be very upset as a stock owner if they give away billions.

 

[winfield100]

Why is 40 pages of FSD speculation and substance-free argument allowed in this thread every weekend?

Does no one have an investment related thought or question in their head while we straddle the inclusion fence?

I like to follow the Accumulation/Distribution line
a cumulative based upon , high, low close and vol
Accumulation/Distribution Indicator - A/D Definition and Uses
a "money flow" thingy so to speak
The Formula for the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator is
{((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low)} times Vol
Friday it was (66.46/66.46) * vol
or 1 * vol
or
a _very_ tasty spike of 100% accumulation of ~222,126,000 shares overall
graphically more or less for historical records
(WHOOHOOO!)

 

[Criscmt]

"not one company included in the S&P 500 has sold off on the Monday of inclusion."

Paging @Oveeus @TheTalkingMule @smorgasbordBy @dakh @ByeByeJohnny as I see that you were interested going by their recent comments on this thread.

@FrankSG Got a chance to review the latest data and fit it into your Model to see what to expect coming 1-2 weeks?
@vikings123

https://twitter.com/JimJame74888138/status/1340741959728640002?s=20

 

[dakh]

You could give anyone who bought FSD a credit if they want. When subscription starts they make a choice. Keep it forever on that car only. Or get a credit for months since bought at new subscription price.

So if you bought for $8,000 43 months ago (not sure what price was then) and subscription price is $100/month you have spent $4,300 and have 3,700 in credit against future subscription. If Tesla feels some of those early months was not worth full price they can award extra for those.

Again, there would be a choice. Everyone should be happy.

Letting all FSD owner until now transfer FSD forever would be an extremely costly thing to do. There must be a couple of hundred thousand who has bought now. If only 100,000 continue to drive Tesla for 20 years after they get their next Tesla that would be a loss of 100,000x12 monthsx20 yearsx100/month=$2,4 billion.

If it's 200,000 owners and $200/months then it's $9,6 billion.

I would be very upset as a stock owner if they give away billions.

I don't get why is this such a hot topic for the investment forum. If Tesla solves FSD, is it such a big concern that they won't monetize it close to optimal? If it is, what exactly is the concern?

There's no need to mess with existing cars that have FSD option. They have been sold with an understanding that the buyer is getting a killer deal on a feature that will greatly appreciate in value sometime in the future, but is currently still in development. Keep it as is and figure out a fair way to value this at trad-in time, that is all.

Much bigger concern IMHO is that FSD is solved but not with the hardware that is there in cars currently sold with FSD package. Like you need more cameras, some camera wipers or different computer/wiring or whatever. Something that isn't easy to retrofit into existing cars. It was always a bold and risky claim that what you pay for today will work. I thought the risk is pretty high a year ago, looks like it is getting lower now. But it is not zero. In the big picture of things it's not a big deal either way, but it is more of a big deal than questioning Tesla's future ability to manage existing FSD customers experience vs. subscriptions.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

"not one company included in the S&P 500 has sold off on the Monday of inclusion."

Paging @Oveeus @TheTalkingMule @smorgasbordBy @dakh @ByeByeJohnny as I see that you were interested going by their recent comments on this thread.

@FrankSG Got a chance to review the latest data and fit it into your Model to see what to expect coming 1-2 weeks?
@vikings123

https://twitter.com/JimJame74888138/status/1340741959728640002?s=20
View attachment 619635

That’s all fine and good info but none of those companies have had the magnitude and show that $TSLA has caused with its inclusion

 

[MP3Mike]

Full ownership of FSD is going away, it will be subscription only.

No it isn't. Elon and Zack have said it will still be cheaper to buy it outright. Which brings us to this:

Assuming FSD is available at a yearly rate, say $1200, payable at $100/month, that is an affordable subscription rate.

It isn't going to be anywhere near $100/month. It is going to be more like $250-300/month. (Assuming they don't raise the purchase price higher than $10k.) Remember, it has to be more than the cost FSD adds to a purchase/lease. (Which is currently ~$149/month on a base Model Y.)

 

[PeterJA]

Those shares purchased for Index funds are now locked up so I don't think the high volume at $695 will be as strong of support as it would have been had the buying been more organic.

That said, we have HUGE support at prices significantly below $695 should prices try to go that direction in the next few weeks. That's because there are bound to be a lot, and I mean a lot, of large funds that use the S&P 500 as a performance benchmark that are still underweight TSLA (or have none at all). These funds will have a strong incentive to add TSLA at prices lower than the index inclusion price of $695. Even if they have such a poor understanding of what TSLA really is that they think it's wildly over-valued, they will add on significant weakness because they can't really lose. They will reason if they are wrong about TSLA they can ride it up with everyone else, they haven't f*ck'd up but, if they are right, their S&P benchmark will decline in equal amounts to their fund.

This will create buying on any weakness and the secondary effect of this will be that others will see the relative price stability of TSLA after inclusion and judge that this wasn't a "one-off" effect of inclusion and decide it's probably a good time to build a position before it runs away from them again. So I see pretty firm support in the $600's and I think any trips into the upper $500's would be met with such strong buying pressure that it would be very short-lived indeed. In short, some volatile days would not surprise me but I don't think we will see a string of them to the downside due to there still being a lot of people on the outside looking in.

We might even run up into the $700's from here. I wouldn't bet on it but it's definitely not an outside probability.

This makes a lot of sense unless...

What if the runup after the inclusion announcement (Nov 16) was due not only to front-running speculators, but also (or primarily) due to buying by benchmarked funds. Goldman Sachs claimed only 17% of their sample of benchmarked funds owned TSLA, but that was only a few days after the inclusion announcement, leaving a month for the funds to accumulate before Dec 18.

But if frontrunners were not the only or primary sellers during the Friday closing cross, who was? The tweet linked by @ggr seems a plausible answer: market makers short-selling to kill the mountain of $700 calls. Somebody certainly worked hard at 3pm Friday to drop the share price 6% in 45 minutes.

Either way, the result now may be almost the same. Somebody (benchmarked funds or market makers or both) may need to buy lots of shares tomorrow. But if it is mostly MMs needing to cover massive shorting, they will try hard to scare longs into thinking $695 was a bubble top, and will give us the mother of all mandatory morning dips. Don't be scared.

 

[dakh]

.

Either way, the result now may be almost the same. Somebody (benchmarked funds or market makers or both) may need to buy lots of shares tomorrow. But if it is mostly MMs needing to cover massive shorting, they will try hard to scare longs into thinking $695 was a bubble top, and will give us the mother of all mandatory morning dips. Don't be scared.

Yup, on a big drop I'm prepared to load up on calls. Missed my chance at $630 on Friday. Thinking about setting up some limit orders to be more hands off with this. Manipulation like that is great if you know what's going on and prepared to take advantage of it.

 

[StealthP3D]

Really good video about FSD visualization from a FSD beta participant.

This is the best FSD video I've seen in terms of helping people who haven't experienced FSD yet (and perhaps even those who have) understand how it works and how it's fundamentally different from the efforts of those companies that need to rely on high precision maps to go anywhere.

Must see for investors. Because when you buy TSLA, this is just one of the things you get. So, let the Wall Street bean counters continue to count tires out the door and compare the valuation of Tesla to companies that make more than 10 times as many. There's a reason those other companies have such low valuations. It's called "dead-end street". It's shocking that with FSD YouTube videos flooding the Internet that some people still don't seem to get it.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm not stressed at all, I'm rich!

This thread drifts and that's fine, it's just getting real old seeing the same people argue about the same entirely OT nonsense when they could just as easily be doing it in an appropriate thread and not clogging up this one.

Fair enough

Dan

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hyundai to end domestic sales of Kona EVs after recalls - reports

Hyundai to end domestic sales of Kona EVs after recalls - reports

"SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co will end domestic sales of its best-selling electric vehicle (EV), the Kona EV, after a series of fires and faulty braking systems prompted mass recalls, local media reported on Friday."

The competition is going...

 

[Big Time]

Looks like Nasdaq and Dow futures both green.
Just waiting on OUR S&P

 

[Artful Dodger]

Playing with some numbers to try to characterize the final hour of trading on Fri, Dec 18 plus the Closing Cross, and the After-hrs session. Here are computed VWAP, Volume, and Total Trade$ for each of those 3 time spans:

As you can see, a significant effort was made to tank the SP in the hour preceding the start of the 10-min Closing Cross. VWAP was nearly $21.50 below the VWAP over the final 10 min (when a volume traded equal to 80% of the walkdown).

Then the Closing Cross happened. Lots of hidden action here, but +$45 premium, and 3.5x the volume of the shortzes 3:00 pm gambit.

Finally, the After-hrs session saw huge volume (~50% more that an average day's total volume), and with a still elevated VWAP of $678.14 with many multi-million share single trades (indicating buying by either Index- or Benchmark- funds).

So, all-in-all, Friday when according to script, MMs had their way (protecting $700 Calls), Index funds (and likely some Benchmark funds) got their shares, and retail shareholder (who understand economics) were able to sell some shares at a good price.

Good Day!

 

[BLSmith2112]

Hopefully some of your family will take you as inspiration to invest and aim to follow in the footsteps to achieve what you have shown is possible.

Some family already came to me with their savings and told me to invest basically for them. I told them I don't offer financial advice because I seriously am one of the most ignorant people when it comes to the market, and the only thing I feel strongly about is Tesla's future 10 years from now and if they invested in Tesla, not to be surprised to see their initial capital get sliced in half on no news.

Whether it's another member posting about crossing $1M or knowing there are many here worth far more than I, this forum has been my relief valve. In early 2021 after her surprise Model Y is delivered, I will slowly reveal our NW to my wife. It will stay between us.

You'll always have ears here that can relate to your experience.

Thanks Mo. I found myself lying all the time to friends and family for over a year regarding my financial situation and it litterally made me feel sick. I am the most transparent person I know and I just couldn't hold it in once it crossed 7 figures. Logically, I should have delt with the annoyance, because what I'm left with is the opinion of others now weighing probably every financial decision we make (dinners, night out etc). I have to be careful on how I discuss those things, so I'm very clear about how I'm 100% liquid still and 0% able to use my investment cash for anything for several years, and that capital has a very specific purpose.

In my estimation, often times people trade the handcuffs of scarcity for the handcuffs of abundance.

If we can evolve our mindset in a generally upward direction alongside the stock price, it will add significantly to our quality of life.

TMC is a great place; with like-minded people who appreciate your story. You are welcome here.

Stay strong.

Thanks much. Generally I can't add much to TSLA's discussion, and when I do it's generally misinformed or inaccurate, so I leave that to twitter haha so the water is less muddied here.

So consider your going public as a service to others in showing them that this path is there for those willing to walk it. Someone out there might have picked this up like I did from your example and will thank you later.

Also, as it should, being on the edge and a bit over the edge shows you where you got work to do. Personally I am currently using my friends as accountability partners: I told a number of them I'm going to quit my day job in September (they already know the financial side), both because we're always open with such things, and in this case I'm concerned I'm gonna chicken out. After working an intense and demanding job for 25 years, it is scary to jump off that cliff. Nothing but 100% support from them.

Having close and meaningful connections with other people is the leading indicator of life expectancy and health. Think about it. If your current inner circle of people is so messed up when it comes to material well being, either become a leader in un-messing this up, or find a group of people who have a healthier relationship with wealth.

Agree. Thankfully, I only have 8 friends, all of which I've known for 18 years+. My family has been super supportive and my friends all want to gather tomorrow for my Birthday, while I'll be moreso celebrating S&P inclusion haha.

Cheers.

 

[Mo City]

I'm diving deep into Jan 2023 LEAPs sometime before EOY.

2021 looks very promising and TSLA is a tide that will rise for quite some time. While I don't expect anything like the glorious (investing) year of 2020 to repeat, 2021 should be another happy new year.

 

[MP3Mike]

Looks like Nasdaq and Dow futures both green.
Just waiting on OUR S&P

Looks like S&P futures are currently -0.13%...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So should we pay attention to the Nasdaq futures or S&P futures more now?

 

[Criscmt]

That’s all fine and good info but none of those companies have had the magnitude and sh** show that $TSLA has caused with its inclusion

I am cognizant of that, was just sharing a valuable data point.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why is 40 pages of FSD speculation and substance-free argument allowed in this thread every weekend?

Ummm...probably because FSD revenues already have a huge impact on Tesla's profitability and this will only grow as the technology matures.

In other words because it's highly relevant to an investment in TSLA.

Does no one have an investment related thought or question in their head while we straddle the inclusion fence?

I suppose asking whether anyone has a relevant question is tangentially relevant to an investment in TSLA. My answer to that is no, not at this time. If I did, I would ask it.