Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree the market can always decline, especially after such strong 2020, but I don't see what you said about 2021 as being in "uncertain macro territory". Could you elaborate?

If anything, I see 2021 as a very strong year due to stimulus and zero rates combined with a sharp economic recovery from the vaccines becoming widely available. I see the macro market rallying into 2022, at which point it's going to get overheated and then we're going to have a pretty sizable correction

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for checking this. I read the 680% figure off of a chart from Nasdaq.com and am not sure why it would be so far off. Now looking at the same source a day later, it reads 720%. So this graphical source seems unreliable.

Looking rather at the historical prices (post-split), Nasdaq is reporting a close of $705.67 on12/31/2020 and $83.666 on 12/31/2019. This is indeed a gain of 743.44%.

720% is the gain from Jan 1st to Dec 31st, but that's not the YoY gain, since it neglects the daily gain which occurs on Jan 1st (which was considerable for TSLA in 2020)

Cheers!

 

[WVCS]

For those interested, I wrote an article that gives insights in relation to a German Greenpeace study why the VW agency Dealership Model right now makes every ID sold a lost business for Dealers. The disadvantage of the Dealership network of incumbents gets more and more obvious.

I received VW internal leaked and confidential documents from VW France that allow me to support the Greenpeace study with prove that showed why only 1 out of 25 dealers recommended the ID.3

Volkswagen Dealers Making 4.5% Margin Selling ID.4 vs. 14%+ For Fossil Fuel Vehicles — CleanTechnica Exclusive

Of course as usual a ton of haters and trolls try to go after me

My next article will include a confidential competitive strenghtweakness VW analysis that compares the ID.4 with the Model Y, Kona, iX3 a.o.

Feels strange to publish these confidential documents as VW may put me on their 'person of interest' list now or even decides to try to sue me.

Time will tell

I trust your intentions are good (absent evidence to the contrary) and that you spend energy to research and write these articles because you want the world to transition to sustainable energy as rapidly as possible.

With due respect to you, I question however, the method you have chosen in this article.

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen. Once one party has branded (explicitly or otherwise) the second party as lying or cheating, the second party is no longer available for influence. A line has been drawn with the two parties on either side of it doing battle with each other rather than working together to solve a problem.

As people who want a world with sustainable energy, I believe we have to show more empathy and a generosity of spirit when interacting with third parties who are not bought in to the concept. For instance, I don’t know how committed I will be to the concept of sustainable energy if I was a Volkswagen employee who is dependent on each paycheck to put a roof over my family and feed my children. Volkswagen (and other ICE manufacturers) have this real and practical issue to deal with regardless of how many other fake / imagined issues they might raise as explanation for slow transition to sustainable energy.

My first point above - an inclusive and empathetic approach to highlighting issues - is 90% of the weight of my comment, such weight as it might have. I wish to add though that I find the article incomplete. It does not provide the data on how the lower dealer incentives affected the sale of electric vehicles. If Volkswagen had undertaken the direct marketing expenses (bypassing the dealer) to create enough demand for all their electric vehicle production, then they are production constrained. The dealer’s role is mere fulfillment of pre-existing demand in which case the dealer incentive will and should justifiably be lower. In fact, this could be an encouraging sign that Volkswagen is incrementally making the dealer irrelevant and increasing direct interaction with the customer.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, how long before that's the market cap?

3 yrs, 9 mths (given a 50% CAGR), or about Oct 1st, 2024 for TSLA to reach $4.91T Mkt Cap.

But this is not the end.

 

[Singuy]

If anything, I see 2021 as a very strong year due to stimulus and zero rates combined with a sharp economic recovery from the vaccines becoming widely available. I see the macro market rallying into 2022, at which point it's going to get overheated and then we're going to have a pretty sizable correction

Correction will come when bond yields are not in the shitter, which will take awhile.

 

[JRP3]

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen.

Because that's what they did.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen. Once one party has branded (explicitly or otherwise) the second party as lying or cheating, the second party is no longer available for influence.

True. Even more relevant is the VW's former CEO Martin Winterkorn is now out of PRISON for the DIESELGATE scandal (lying and cheating on emissions laws).

Just so you know who you are dealing with:

VW Dieselgate executive to finish prison time in Germany

"A former Volkswagen executive (Martin Winterkorn) sentenced to seven years for his role in the automaker's emissions cheating scandal was cleared Thursday to leave federal prison in Michigan more than two years early and finish his jail time in his native Germany." Jul 16, 2020​

In the future, it would be helpful if you came to this forum presenting more supported facts, and fewer unfounded, incorrect, and misleading opinions. Especially when those opinions appear to impune the reputation and character of a well-respected, long time-member of this commnunity @avoigt

Word.

 

[Stretch2727]

I wonder what the Ex-Dividend date is. I purchased my shares on the 29th

Edit: I bought ARKG on the 28th and received their dividend. Womp womp

Final edit: I purchased on the 29th after an $8 fall from the 28th. I no longer care about the dividend

Looks like capital gains distributions partially due to some of the selling of TSLA. The options strikes are at odd amounts now as well. Also noticed there are now weekly's options on ARKK.

https://etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_...Other/Capital_Gains_Distribution_ARK_ETFs.pdf

 

[ZeApelido]

After your pessimistic share price estimates in 2020, let's take a stab at 2021.

Peak share price reached in 2021.

What peak share price will TSLA reach in 2021? - Guest on StrawPoll

And why do you think so?

I voted for $1000. I think earnings growth alone will bring it above $900, but FSD improvements will begin a new mode of valuation and put it over $1000 by year's end.

 

[ZeApelido]

.6 million? So 600,000? If it’s $6 million I would agree with her. After all it’s not good to get too rich. Seems like the overall conservative estimate is that TSLA should easily double on average every year for at least the next ten years. Do you really want to be worth over $12 in a year or two?

If end up near $12 then I'll be suicidal.

It's really 2.6 right now. I see a clear path to 4 over the short term and at least 5 long term, conservatively. As we reach 4 I feel like selling some in my IRAs and putting into say ARK ETFs is "conservative" but should still yield 10% per year. Since we won't be spending most of the money right now, I feel like that is a solid way to keep growing enough for years.

Luckily I can convince her to keep holding until we are above $1000. Above that I don't mind diversifying.

I'm not trying to be greedy!

 

[goinfraftw]

After your pessimistic share price estimates in 2020, let's take a stab at 2021.

Peak share price reached in 2021.

What peak share price will TSLA reach in 2021? - Guest on StrawPoll

And why do you think so?

I voted for $1000. I think earnings growth alone will bring it above $900, but FSD improvements will begin a new mode of valuation and put it over $1000 by year's end.

$1200-$1300. I think Tesla passes Google in market cap in 2021, if I want to be bold. 2022 at the latest.

I think the headwinds are stronger for growth in Tesla as well as the potential for a much larger market cap than Google. The latter hasn't had a 128 country treaty to help spur growth like Tesla does. So, the valuation will follow.

 

[AudubonB]

... Also noticed there are now weekly's options on ARKK.

https://etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_...Other/Capital_Gains_Distribution_ARK_ETFs.pdf

If true, that is to me some of the worst news out of the investment world I’ve seen in recent times. Have none of you not been aware how the existence of derivative instruments makes it so phenomenally easy for mischief makers to impact not only the price of a security, but the underlying company (basket fund, in this case)? Have you not been paying attention to the misfortunes of TSLA over the past years? Do you not truly grasp what the fundamental nature of an ETF is and how unwholesome it would be to the fund and its managers were that to occur to them?

I am at a loss for polite words.

 

[Nurkbonis]

Should have had a "more than $1,500" option.

After your pessimistic share price estimates in 2020, let's take a stab at 2021.

Peak share price reached in 2021.

What peak share price will TSLA reach in 2021? - Guest on StrawPoll

And why do you think so?

I voted for $1000. I think earnings growth alone will bring it above $900, but FSD improvements will begin a new mode of valuation and put it over $1000 by year's end.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Model Y starts shipping on the morning of New Year's Day" | Wu Wa (2 hrs ago)

This is gonna get big, fast.

Cheers!

 

[brianhn1]

"Model Y starts shipping on the morning of New Year's Day" | Wu Wa (2 hrs ago)

This is gonna get big, fast.

Cheers!

This might be the biggest sandbag removal move as of recent memory, let the Ys roam the planet!

Meanwhile FSD is in the biggest pressure cooker ever seen, are we going to be ready for 2021???

 

[StealthP3D]

Since we’re getting into Q1 and I’ve already seen a couple posts mention seasonality, I’d like to remind people that if it hadn’t been for COVID not letting Tesla deliver cars in the final 3 weeks in Q1 2020, they would have been very close to Q4 2019. They would have only had a very small dip from their strongest quarter to their weakest.

Point being, I think Tesla has hit price points where seasonality is not going to be a thing for them for a while.

Didn't Tesla continue deliveries remotely the last three weeks of Q1 2020? It was a production shutdown forced by Alameda County. Of course, since Tesla has always sold every car they produced, this would translate to fewer sales in 2020.

Seasonality of car sales has been a "thing" with autos as long as I can remember. I think Tesla sales/production might smooth this historic trend out a little but I doubt it's ever going away.

 

[Krugerrand]

I trust your intentions are good (absent evidence to the contrary) and that you spend energy to research and write these articles because you want the world to transition to sustainable energy as rapidly as possible.

With due respect to you, I question however, the method you have chosen in this article.

The article uses the words “lie” and “cheat” multiple times while referring to Volkswagen. Once one party has branded (explicitly or otherwise) the second party as lying or cheating, the second party is no longer available for influence. A line has been drawn with the two parties on either side of it doing battle with each other rather than working together to solve a problem.

As people who want a world with sustainable energy, I believe we have to show more empathy and a generosity of spirit when interacting with third parties who are not bought in to the concept. For instance, I don’t know how committed I will be to the concept of sustainable energy if I was a Volkswagen employee who is dependent on each paycheck to put a roof over my family and feed my children. Volkswagen (and other ICE manufacturers) have this real and practical issue to deal with regardless of how many other fake / imagined issues they might raise as explanation for slow transition to sustainable energy.

My first point above - an inclusive and empathetic approach to highlighting issues - is 90% of the weight of my comment, such weight as it might have. I wish to add though that I find the article incomplete. It does not provide the data on how the lower dealer incentives affected the sale of electric vehicles. If Volkswagen had undertaken the direct marketing expenses (bypassing the dealer) to create enough demand for all their electric vehicle production, then they are production constrained. The dealer’s role is mere fulfillment of pre-existing demand in which case the dealer incentive will and should justifiably be lower. In fact, this could be an encouraging sign that Volkswagen is incrementally making the dealer irrelevant and increasing direct interaction with the customer.

Poppycock! That’s all the empathy any of them get for lying and cheating (yes, they actually did do that) and prematurely killing hundreds of thousands of people and at least as many suffering from related illnesses.

Employees of VW have the same choice to work for whichever company they want as do employees of Tesla, Coca-Cola, Exxon etc...

Employees not part of the lying and cheating should be rebelling and shouting from the factory rooftops for immediate and dramatic change. If necessary, leaving.

No, I haven’t always been rolling in the dough. I’ve known tight times. I’ve worked multiple jobs at a time to pay my bills. I’ve quit jobs without having a backup plan because I’ve discovered I work for a donkey.

VW needs to die. And I’d strongly suggest that current employees upgrade their skills and resumes. There’s this little company called Tesla that’s looking for quality workers; people who want to work hard to change the world for the better for all of us.

 

[Darkfox021]

I missed a bunch of posts around the time when the compare tool was mentioned, so this may have been discussed, but does anyone else see a $1500 lower price on the compare page vs. the ordering page?

 

[EVMeister]

After your pessimistic share price estimates in 2020, let's take a stab at 2021.

Peak share price reached in 2021.

What peak share price will TSLA reach in 2021? - Guest on StrawPoll

And why do you think so?

I voted for $1000. I think earnings growth alone will bring it above $900, but FSD improvements will begin a new mode of valuation and put it over $1000 by year's end.

But you said $1200 in the "other thread". Why did you become more bearish in the space of a few hours?

 

[kanweg]

After your pessimistic share price estimates in 2020, let's take a stab at 2021.

Peak share price reached in 2021.

What peak share price will TSLA reach in 2021? - Guest on StrawPoll

And why do you think so?

I voted for $1000. I think earnings growth alone will bring it above $900, but FSD improvements will begin a new mode of valuation and put it over $1000 by year's end.

OK, I really hope anyone of you is right but how many of the voters were right about the SP of 31 December 2020?