Because of Apple's coming entrance into the EV market, yesterday Gene pushed his TSLA $2500 forecast from 3+ years to 5+ years.
I lost a lot of respect for Gene in that short analysis. It made it clear how little he knows about automobile engineering/design/production technology and just how much expertise and talent Tesla has in that area and how difficult it would be for Apple to compete with Tesla in 2024/2025.
Tesla entered the automotive market during a "magic window" (the established players had let their guard down in the EV space) and even this did not guarantee a new entrant could successfully penetrate the industry and become an established player. It was only by exceptional talent and an incredible string of correct calls in terms of product concept/design, messaging, timing, hiring, etc. etc. etc. that this worked. This was far more difficult than Gene appreciates. Making cars at compelling price points is far different from making phones, computers and earbuds. Calling a car a "computer on wheels" does not change this unassailable fact.
It will be more likely that major players in the automotive business get their act together than Apple can successfully enter the auto market with a product that brings:
1) up-to-date automotive technology
2) on time
3) at a compelling price point
4) manufactured in sufficient volume to matter
The chances of this are about as close to zero as you can get. The most likely way this plays out (two most likely scenarios first):
1) The project quietly goes away, never to be heard from again
2) The project turns into a infotainment system package for existing automakers
3) The AppleCar gears up for production but the plug is pulled when executives realize the car can't compete with existing EV's. They cut their $30 billion in losses and run.
4) This is the scenario that meets the four requirements above. I don't see this as having enough chance to even list here. That said, around the 2030 timeframe things get fuzzy enough that maybe something like this is possible eventually, regardless of how unlikely it is now. But not by the 2024-2025 timeframe discussed here!
I don't know, maybe Apple has hidden away some of the best brains who are secretly working in private and have the amazing ability to pull it all together and orchestrate the most amazingly choreographed entry into the automotive scene we have ever witnessed. I have no doubt they can handle the marketing part of it, it's the engineering design and manufacture I doubt. And a contract manufacture doesn't solve this problem for reasons of cost competitiveness. Look at the Jaguar iPace. Even with the emission credit benefits it's not worthwhile. And Apple won't have the benefit of emission credits by 2025. If they get EV subsidies they won't be a competitive advantage because their competitors will likely have them too. No one with a grasp of what it would take can take this seriously. The fact that Gene does makes me think he just doesn't understand what's involved. And he confirms this by calling a car a "computer on wheels". That is a gross misrepresentation of what it takes to make a car (even if EV's are more simple than ICE).
