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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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you are actively damaging the quality of information here with ridiculous estimates like this, and guaranteeing disappointment.

i don't understand why this forum insists on radically over-estimating deliveries literally every single quarter. How many times does the same pattern have to repeat itself for it to be recognized?

You're right in that this forum is typically too bullish with its expectations around particular events (though dead-on in the grand scheme) - and I think it's worthwhile to sound notes of caution when sentiment is running away with itself. I think @asburgers's post was tongue-in-cheek though.
 
Everyone is scared of P&D, this is a good sign. I don't remember lots of confidence q1 2020 either, which triggered the catapulte that eventually 10x the stock.

Looking on Twitter lots of shorts covered because there's a gigantic triangle flag forming, one of the biggest...so big its scaring shorts. Tsla could break down to the downside, but people are scared betting on it.
 

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Everyone is scared of P&D, this is a good sign. I don't remember lots of confidence q1 2020 either, which triggered the catapulte that eventually 10x the stock.

Looking on Twitter lots of shorts covered because there's a gigantic triangle flag forming, one of the biggest...so big its scaring shorts. Tsla could break down to the downside, but people are scared betting on it.
lots of shorts covered
That could sadly, ironically mean less fuel for the rise next week on any surprise?
 
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lots of shorts covered
That could sadly, ironically mean less fuel for the rise next week on any surprise?
Lots of shorts covered on twitter doesn't mean anything. That's as meaningful as lots of people on this forum bought shares.....which accounts for like 2 seconds of volume on a typical trading day. It's more of a sentiment gauge, and the sentiment is that movements of the stock either way will be pretty significant coming soon and even some shorts are afraid of the volatility.
 
You're right in that this forum is typically too bullish with its expectations around particular events (though dead-on in the grand scheme) - and I think it's worthwhile to sound notes of caution when sentiment is running away with itself. I think @asburgers's post was tongue-in-cheek though.
yeah, i may have misread it. if so, i apologize.
 
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Everyone is scared of P&D, this is a good sign. I don't remember lots of confidence q1 2020 either, which triggered the catapulte that eventually 10x the stock.

Looking on Twitter lots of shorts covered because there's a gigantic triangle flag forming, one of the biggest...so big its scaring shorts. Tsla could break down to the downside, but people are scared betting on it.
 
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yeah, that's essentially correct -- the 2020 pattern was that it would rise prior to earnings, go down immediately after earnings, but then rise hard after a week or two of figuring things out. My explanation for these three distinct trends was:

  • The pre-earnings rise was "buy the news" from cynical investors and institutions, and simple optimism from bulls.
  • The post-earnings crash was because disingenuous shorts and bears are extremely good at seizing the narrative in the *immediate* wake of news -- lies can be manufactured instantly, while reasoned refutations of those lies take time to disseminate and sink in.
  • The long rise that followed a couple week after earnings each quarter was basically the truth gradually overcoming new set of lies being peddled by the usual suspects in the wake of the report.
Well, 2020 was a banner year! So I'm confused when you complain we ALWAYS make guesses that are unrealistically bullish and this hurts us. Are you saying we would probably be at $2000 if only TMC members had low-balled all of our production and delivery estimates? ;)

Honestly, I don't think it matters much one way or the other.
 
Well, 2020 was a banner year! So I'm confused when you complain we ALWAYS make guesses that are unrealistically bullish and this hurts us. Are you saying we would probably be at $2000 if only TMC members had low-balled all of our production and delivery estimates? ;)

Honestly, I don't think it matters much one way or the other.

that's a good point -- long term, it probably doesn't matter very much. (i'd still rather be right than wrong, though, even on the short-term stuff. i guess i'm just vain :) )
 
that's a good point -- long term, it probably doesn't matter very much. (i'd still rather be right than wrong, though, even on the short-term stuff. i guess i'm just vain :) )
You are right IMO. TMC struggles to keep expectations realistic. Overly optimistic sentiments do not help. We are awash in click baiting willing to harm investors for rewards of more clicks for cash. Rob M. sets a great example of how to be realistic without being swayed too much by exuberance. Getting it right is the better way to profit IMO.