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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Currently the largest company is a fruit company, so that should be easy to beat! 2.06T
TSLA would need to hit about ~$2100 or $35/day over the next 42 trading days.
Just spotted silver Tesla Model 3 in today's The Falcon and The Winter Soldier episode 3 (Disney Channel - Marvel IP). No Tesla logo seen since it's only showing part of the car from outside and inside, but if you know your car, you instantly recognizes it when you see it. (Well, Audi did paid for product placement with their car in this episode with their car and logo showing)
It must be much easier to use a Tesla because they can film inside a studio without spending extra money to take precautions.
Possibly StarLink.
“To keep up with global demand, SpaceX is breaking ground on a new, state of the art manufacturing facility in Austin, TX,” the company said in new job listings posted on its website earlier this week. [March 4].
SpaceX plans to set up a Starlink manufacturing facility in Texas
The company is seeking to hire an Automation and Controls Engineer, Assembly and Packaging Equipment Engineer, Operations Engineer, as well as a Business Analyst for its Texas Starlink manufacturing facility.
www.tesmanian.com
Friggin' Austin. Wish I'd invested in some Austin real estate.
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SunCatcher
Member
Huh? Yer kidding us, right?
Not advice...Feeling like these 700, 750 and 800 'call walls' are going to fall this week. I'm placing my bets for a few Apr 9th exp.
Excellent video and interview of our friend Gary Black.
TDLR
1. Expecting a 10% jump in Tesla's Sp on Monday
2. Expecting macro to be rough on Monday due to knock out job report causing 10yr to rise
3. Talks about how he applies his discount rate to reach his price target of 960
4. Does not build robotaxies into his model, but do include energy.
5. Talks about potential tax credit/rebate.
6. Conservative growth investor, tries to stick to a beta of 1.2
7. Talks about interest rate, if 10 yr goes to 3-4% then expect growth stocks to suffer. He guarantees this as it's what sell side analysts are trained to do.
8. Expecting inflation numbers to be transient as what Fed and Yellen have said, will find out 2H and that will stabilize 10yr. If 10yr stays around 2% than growth stocks will be fine.
9. Still thinks Q2 Tesla numbers will be 190k, Dave pushed him on this and thinks that's way too conservative. Seems that as Gary is talking it out with Dave, the more bullish he became.
10. Gary used to have up to 20% of his portfolio in Tesla before he sold. Now it's less than that. Bought back at 620 and then doubled position at 570.
TDLR
1. Expecting a 10% jump in Tesla's Sp on Monday
2. Expecting macro to be rough on Monday due to knock out job report causing 10yr to rise
3. Talks about how he applies his discount rate to reach his price target of 960
4. Does not build robotaxies into his model, but do include energy.
5. Talks about potential tax credit/rebate.
6. Conservative growth investor, tries to stick to a beta of 1.2
7. Talks about interest rate, if 10 yr goes to 3-4% then expect growth stocks to suffer. He guarantees this as it's what sell side analysts are trained to do.
8. Expecting inflation numbers to be transient as what Fed and Yellen have said, will find out 2H and that will stabilize 10yr. If 10yr stays around 2% than growth stocks will be fine.
9. Still thinks Q2 Tesla numbers will be 190k, Dave pushed him on this and thinks that's way too conservative. Seems that as Gary is talking it out with Dave, the more bullish he became.
10. Gary used to have up to 20% of his portfolio in Tesla before he sold. Now it's less than that. Bought back at 620 and then doubled position at 570.
No spoiler? What, the Avengers can’t afford an M3P? Things must be tough without Tony Stark.
Yeah I have no clue what Elon could thinking that could make Tesla the biggest company in the world this year. Like you said, it's probably Elon's optimism which is why most of us didn't put much weight into that tweet
I REALLY look forward to the day we don’t have to scrutiny these charts anymore.
Base on the volume of calls ending 4/16 verses those ending 4/9.....they might not try to spend that much money/ammo capping the stock this week unless it looks like it's really getting out of hand ( like above 815). The week of 4/16, they're definitely gonna try to cap it at 800 to avoid paying the rather large amount of 800 and 850 Calls.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
For Tesla to become the world’s largest company in the next few years, FSD is required.
But to drill down more specifically, what does the market need to see in order to start factoring FSD into TSLA's valuation?
IMHO, it's simply a clear and straight line to L4/5. When the market believes it is inevitable and only a function of time, you'll see the valuation increase. This next step change of the FSD beta is going to publicly show exactly how fast the system learns with 1,000 (or 2,000?) beta participants. I think folks are going to be able to extrapolate the rate of improvement to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of vehicles, and they are going to realize that there aren't going to be many (any?) edge cases that simply will be unsolvable for Tesla given enough time. Right now most of the market is still focused on questions like "Who has the best approach for self-driving?" or "Is self-driving really solvable?"
Yes, it will still be much time before there's enough data to prove safety, regulators get on board, we work through all the political and philosophical BS that will undoubtedly come, and robotaxis take whatever form Tesla decides and become a revenue-generating reality. But once the market sees this as inevitable, the stock will [probably] start to reflect it. That could actually start as soon as the next FSD beta release if the improvement is profound. That may be what Elon is suggesting. It's also the kind of inevitability, that, if I were a CEO of a competing self-driving outfit, might cause me to step down. I'm not saying it will be, but the next release of FSD beta could be, publicly, game over.
CLK350
Member
But .. how about Brownsville/ San Padre - how are RE prices there - too late too?Possibly StarLink.
“To keep up with global demand, SpaceX is breaking ground on a new, state of the art manufacturing facility in Austin, TX,” the company said in new job listings posted on its website earlier this week. [March 4].
SpaceX plans to set up a Starlink manufacturing facility in Texas
The company is seeking to hire an Automation and Controls Engineer, Assembly and Packaging Equipment Engineer, Operations Engineer, as well as a Business Analyst for its Texas Starlink manufacturing facility.
Friggin' Austin. Wish I'd invested in some Austin real estate.
(re Elon's tweet encouraging people to move there re big plans/ demand)
Not many here could survive that!
The day people stop looking at Tesla as a lotto ticket? Beta of Tesla needs to drop like a rock before that happens. High IV lures too many gamblers.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You need to look at the man. He didn't say "this year" (that was you). Elon said "a few months". That could mean a few dozen months in Elon's worldview. He doesn't care about the timeline as much as the certainty of the outcome.
Then he deleted the 4 a.m. tweet. Don't overthink it. Elon certainly didn't.
The market needs to see Robotaxi certification cleared by the government before they can factor in robotaxi revenues, before that they can start modeling FSD take rate and put that under margins.
This is a huge hurdle that it's up in the air if Tesla will ever get the certification or not even if they have a very competent system. Many shorts or wrong doers are willing to claim all sorts of lies against the system, clouding the government's judgement. Currently the government literally investigates every freaken major crash. And now we know some people are blaming autopilot for their accidents EVEN when their system is not active trying to get out of their liability. This is a uphill battle Google didn't have to deal with this because it was such an enclosed system since only employees get to run their autonomy program.
lafrisbee
Active Member
This ant can smell a picnic basket full of fried chicken, and potato salad, and peanut butter pie, and Sweet sweet iced tea... And it is absolutely driving him nuts...the picnic baskets lid is gonna stay shut for three damn days.
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