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Don't count on it. I just watched a youtube video yesterday by an early access (FSD beta) person and he didn't get V9 yet.

That doesn't mean anything. There's been multiple reports and I've had a couple people tell me that there's a private beta V9 under NDA. You're not going to see it posted on youtube.

Having said that, who knows when V9 will be lifted from NDA
 
DC0F8F06-EEA8-4AE4-9487-4EA6FE7CD645.png

Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
 
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Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
That is beautiful and a great package. Good for you!!
 
The run to 900 was pure overshoot and momo.

No, the SP run to $880 in early Jan 2021 was due to forced naked short covering by market-makers / hedge funds.

These hedgies had to ACTUALLY DELIVER the 80 MILLION shares they sold short w/o first locating them on Fri, Dec 18, 2020 and large S&P 500 Index funds won't take a 'NO' or an FTD for an answer. Such whales would sue, then raise HELL with the SEC if they were short-changed any of the shares they bought on Dec 18.

So wedgies were forced to locate and buy real TSLA shares, which they did by Jan 8 (b4 the FTD Reporting Date). The $880 share price was predictable from Dec 17 Short Interest data (published Dec 24) using an economics supply'n'demand model.
supplydemand.jpg

The $900 peak reached 10 sessions later on Jan 25 was an intraday high; we closed at $880.80 that day. It might have been 'momo', but who cares? It's a 1% blip testing the previous high, and easily within the daily noise for this equity.

IMO what's happening now is the usual Wall St. suspects are working hard to restore their previous mass public illusion that Tesla will fail (not happening), and that TSLA will go to zero (it' won't). They can not give up their illusion. It's all they've got (sad).

Butt-hurt MMs and wedgies are stubbornly and relentlessly working to get their lost Billions back from being caught short with the Aug 2020's share dividend, and then the S&P 500 share handover. The 'house' wants their rigged game back... :p

But in fact wedgies are only digging themselves deeper. A tsunami of profits is coming Tesla's way, which will just build and build over the years. Elon has them surrounded, out-numbered, and out-gunned (RIP Uncle Jack, thank-you for your wise counsel).

Keep the faith, you'll do fine!

Cheers!
 
OK it's time for a WAG

My Wild Ass Guess is that despite Tesla on the Earnings Call not forecasting fast progress for the 4680 battery cell production they are ready and impatient to ramp up and just need a factory to do it in.

The reasoning behind my WAG: The steel work for the north western part of Giga Texas - where the 4680 cells will be made - has been put up in record time. Much faster than the steel work for the rest of the factory. And this is true for flooring and roofing for this part too.

Just as if they had a breakthrough. And suddenly the cell factory couldn't be built fast enough.

So I believe they need this part of the factory as soon as possible. Work on this part of the factory could have started much earlier - but for some reason it had not. Until the workers started putting up steel work in plaid mode.
Now it looks like this part of the factory has top priority. Just as if Tesla finally figured out how to make the batteries and decided they need the cell factory NOW.


And a bonus observation; In Berlin they are digging out one deep pit for heavy duty machinery. In Texas they dug two similar pits. I guess this is while both factories will be making Model Y cars - in Texas they need additional batteries for the Cybertruck and the Semi. So one production line in Berlin - two in Texas.
BTW they have just started making concrete footers in Berlin for their cell factory. In Austin they started with footers for the cell factory area around 1st of March.


Yes - I am watching a lot of drone videos these days...
 
Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
The Y isn't just a bigger Model 3, it's a whole new level of amazing Tesla car, isn't it? Now I know why Tesla expects it to be the best selling car by revenue in 2022 and by count in 2023.

If you drive a lot on the highway, definitely get FSD. Autopilot is amazing, but Navigate on Autopilot is a huge step up for highway driving.
 
Electrek- 19 minutes ago: Another Tesla Project at Austin

Excerpt:

Documents recently filed with the city of Austin indicate Tesla Inc. plans another facility on its land in eastern Travis County. There aren’t too many details about what the facility would be used for, and project representatives either declined to comment or could not be reached by publication time. But a site plan filed April 30 for Tesla’s “Bobcat Project” points to another industrial building rising off Harold Green Road near the company’s $1.1 billion gigafactory.
 
Electrek- 19 minutes ago: Another Tesla Project at Austin

Excerpt:

Documents recently filed with the city of Austin indicate Tesla Inc. plans another facility on its land in eastern Travis County. There aren’t too many details about what the facility would be used for, and project representatives either declined to comment or could not be reached by publication time. But a site plan filed April 30 for Tesla’s “Bobcat Project” points to another industrial building rising off Harold Green Road near the company’s $1.1 billion gigafactory.
Rumors were that this was a SpaceX project. Sounds like the rumors were incorrect.
 
Rumors were that this was a SpaceX project. Sounds like the rumors were incorrect.
The SpaceX/Starlink facility is rumored to be on the west side of the highway. Something is definitely being built there right now.

The Bobcat project is for the area east of the current build.
 
View attachment 660026
Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
Félicitations!!

When do we go to the Julep to race? Cool kids still do that right?
 
OK it's time for a WAG

My Wild Ass Guess is that despite Tesla on the Earnings Call not forecasting fast progress for the 4680 battery cell production they are ready and impatient to ramp up and just need a factory to do it in.

The reasoning behind my WAG: The steel work for the north western part of Giga Texas - where the 4680 cells will be made - has been put up in record time. Much faster than the steel work for the rest of the factory. And this is true for flooring and roofing for this part too.

Just as if they had a breakthrough. And suddenly the cell factory couldn't be built fast enough.

So I believe they need this part of the factory as soon as possible. Work on this part of the factory could have started much earlier - but for some reason it had not. Until the workers started putting up steel work in plaid mode.
Now it looks like this part of the factory has top priority. Just as if Tesla finally figured out how to make the batteries and decided they need the cell factory NOW.


And a bonus observation; In Berlin they are digging out one deep pit for heavy duty machinery. In Texas they dug two similar pits. I guess this is while both factories will be making Model Y cars - in Texas they need additional batteries for the Cybertruck and the Semi. So one production line in Berlin - two in Texas.
BTW they have just started making concrete footers in Berlin for their cell factory. In Austin they started with footers for the cell factory area around 1st of March.


Yes - I am watching a lot of drone videos these days...
Nice observation on the 1 line in Berlin. A 20GWh line is good for a little over a quarter million LR MYs per year. Presumably cell suppliers will make up the other half of the planned 500k annual vehicle capacity or we will see a second cell factory start in due course.
 
Chicago Tribune - 2.5 hours ago: Used car values skyrocket

Excerpt:

Used car values are skyrocketing as new car inventory dries up, creating robust demand for everything from well-traveled minivans to late-model pickup trucks. Edmunds said the average value for used vehicles traded in during the month of March hit an all-time high, climbing to $17,080, compared with $14,160 a year ago.
 
View attachment 660026
Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.

That's exactly the car I got right down to the tow hitch. Of course that was August 2020. Since then so many little things have been improved including the front and rear castings.

The rate of improvement in Tesla vehicles over time has been and continues to be incredible. This kind of rapid iterative improvement is a big advantage for Tesla and will allow a quick response should real competition ever actually materialize.
 
View attachment 660026
Pulled the trigger again to replace my Model 3 with a Model Y, can’t let my wife drive the White Model Y and suffer from endless jealousy. YOLO.

the tesla rep told me they expect to receive them not until October, he said they don’t know what is going on, they have never seen so many orders, ever. The last month was crazier than ever for the number of reservations.

The SP is surely not following the same trend as reservations.
My guess on what’s going on is people are beginning to realize the viability of having a Tesla as a car and also know that if they don’t put in their order for a new Tesla now, the tsunami of orders due to the new Biden EV plan is going to make it nearly impossible to own one soon.

I’m telling all my friends and coworkers to place their orders NOW.
 
Now it looks like this part of the factory has top priority. Just as if Tesla finally figured out how to make the batteries and decided they need the cell factory NOW.
Berlin will need cells for the first few quarters I think. Texas is a higher priority because of that, IMO. Watch for progress on 'Bobcat' (the battery cathode plant). That'll tell you how fast Tesla can ramp cell production in TX.
 
My guess on what’s going on is people are beginning to realize the viability of having a Tesla as a car and also know that if they don’t put in their order for a new Tesla now, the tsunami of orders due to the new Biden EV plan is going to make it nearly impossible to own one soon.

I’m telling all my friends and coworkers to place their orders NOW.
Or could be the chip shortage causing legacy autos to raise new car prices/selling out while used cars are skyrocketing in prices. All of a sudden a Tesla is looking pretty cheap.