I've been considering using margin to pick up some short term shares every time it dips below 660, but I just don't have enough confidence in this market to take the gamble. Rhyme or reason hasn't applied for some time now.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I've been considering using margin to pick up some short term shares every time it dips below 660, but I just don't have enough confidence in this market to take the gamble. Rhyme or reason hasn't applied for some time now.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Many thanks to @Prunesquallor for taking a shot at understanding the European credits situation. It certainly seems possible that Stellantis is going down the well-worn path of negotiating with Tesla in public. And it also certainly seems possible that Tesla could be better paid elsewhere.
AimStellar
Member
Are people here feeling this is an accurate time prediction on his part? Less than 6 days left. The silence of the early access people is deafening. Missing those videos
I'm not holding my breath.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Going by innumerous examples in the past - not accurate.
I don't expect the "button" for a few months. When they make a fundamental change like removing Radar - there are so many things that would need tweaking ...
All about the labor report tomorrow and whether the market decides that inflation is once again guaranteed to ravage the countryside like the plague of locusts that it is.
The manipulation here is market wide from a very high level. The large players decided that this market was overvalued and after the election euphoria wore off , they decided they wanted to play in the other direction. They are doing fantastic.
The FUD and news is relentless as they own or control almost all media. I have a number of stocks, mostly renewables, that are off an average of 50% easy from their highs just since February. Some of them are down almost 70%. The indexes aside, I do not see the broader market as overvalued at all at this point. But, as everyone knows, momo always overshoots in both directions.
However, the large players like to play the technicals as well. The simple fact is that almost all the stocks I have looked at today are bouncing off their lower BBs, or are slightly below them, TSLA included. A relief rally might be in the works, as soon as tomorrow. It will probably one of the 'sell the rips' variety. Not sure where we need to go for this to reverse fully...
If you invest on my say so, you are mad and poor. Buy and hold the companies you use and have conviction in. This works out tremendously over time.
The manipulation here is market wide from a very high level. The large players decided that this market was overvalued and after the election euphoria wore off , they decided they wanted to play in the other direction. They are doing fantastic.
The FUD and news is relentless as they own or control almost all media. I have a number of stocks, mostly renewables, that are off an average of 50% easy from their highs just since February. Some of them are down almost 70%. The indexes aside, I do not see the broader market as overvalued at all at this point. But, as everyone knows, momo always overshoots in both directions.
However, the large players like to play the technicals as well. The simple fact is that almost all the stocks I have looked at today are bouncing off their lower BBs, or are slightly below them, TSLA included. A relief rally might be in the works, as soon as tomorrow. It will probably one of the 'sell the rips' variety. Not sure where we need to go for this to reverse fully...
If you invest on my say so, you are mad and poor. Buy and hold the companies you use and have conviction in. This works out tremendously over time.
How licensing FSD software may work and at the same time build brand loyalty and Tesla's bottom line:
1. Make the license available to purchase even if you don't currently own a Tesla vehicle.
a. Consumers not ready to purchase a vehicle but interested in locking in FSD at the current price can buy now.
b. Each purchase would come with a profile at tesla.com to manage your Tesla account.
c. Tesla gets paid to build a marketing database listing consumers very likely to buy a vehicle in the future in addition to other Tesla products.
d. Software license sales add to Tesla's bottom line; unconstrained by vehicle supply.
e. Refines the business of FSD license sales for use in future third party vehicles.
2. FSD is licensed conditionally to the individual and the first vehicle they apply the license to. Transfers to future Tesla vehicles or new owners upon the sale of the original vehicle may be done with a license transfer fee, i.e. 10% of the current FSD price.
a. Maintains promise of getting the full capability of FSD with consideration for what was paid into the program.
b. Current Tesla vehicle owners are less apprehensive to upgrade to new Tesla models like they are now without the ability to transfer FSD.
c. The decision to bring FSD vehicle trade-ins to Tesla loses some negative stigma associated with not getting good value for purchased FSD.
d. Tesla gets paid on the private and third party dealership transfer of Tesla vehicles every time new owners want an FSD feature.
3. Consumers with multiple Tesla vehicles would still pay for multiple licenses if they want FSD on more than one vehicle.
a. Continues a clean business plan of one license/one vehicle for development cost/risk.
b. They can afford it.
1. Make the license available to purchase even if you don't currently own a Tesla vehicle.
a. Consumers not ready to purchase a vehicle but interested in locking in FSD at the current price can buy now.
b. Each purchase would come with a profile at tesla.com to manage your Tesla account.
c. Tesla gets paid to build a marketing database listing consumers very likely to buy a vehicle in the future in addition to other Tesla products.
d. Software license sales add to Tesla's bottom line; unconstrained by vehicle supply.
e. Refines the business of FSD license sales for use in future third party vehicles.
2. FSD is licensed conditionally to the individual and the first vehicle they apply the license to. Transfers to future Tesla vehicles or new owners upon the sale of the original vehicle may be done with a license transfer fee, i.e. 10% of the current FSD price.
a. Maintains promise of getting the full capability of FSD with consideration for what was paid into the program.
b. Current Tesla vehicle owners are less apprehensive to upgrade to new Tesla models like they are now without the ability to transfer FSD.
c. The decision to bring FSD vehicle trade-ins to Tesla loses some negative stigma associated with not getting good value for purchased FSD.
d. Tesla gets paid on the private and third party dealership transfer of Tesla vehicles every time new owners want an FSD feature.
3. Consumers with multiple Tesla vehicles would still pay for multiple licenses if they want FSD on more than one vehicle.
a. Continues a clean business plan of one license/one vehicle for development cost/risk.
b. They can afford it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"Two weeks" in Elon time can be anything between the following Tuesday and end of the next month. Or later. It basically means "the software is pretty close to done" rather than "approximately 14 calendar days"
RobStark
Well-Known Member
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
1,000% this. The clues were building up in hindsight but it’s hard to put them together in real-time because you always think that a rug-pull of this magnitude would be based on some kind of public information, like the pandemic in 2020.
There were very large, fishy put orders on TSLA and some other renewables I follow. That was clue #1. Clue #2 was Gary Black selling out of TSLA. Clue #3 was the FUDstorm they tried to generate around renewables during the Texas energy crisis. And Clue #4 was trying to find some public excuse for it all (the yield!).
But in reality, it’s just the biggest whales getting together and deciding on a time to reverse the market.
I would think two weeks would suggest the software was done already and it was just out in the wild getting validated by users before a wider release. If it wasn't pencils down at that point I would think two weeks would be impossible. The only reason i give this kind of timeline more weight than others is because it's so short I was thinking the process to push to a wide release had already started and that it was just going through the necessary checks, and as long as there wasn't a sudden discovery that needed to be fixed before the roll out that it would go at at the target release time.
Marc_K_inNJ
Member
Don't count on it. I just watched a youtube video yesterday by an early access (FSD beta) person and he didn't get V9 yet.
Another one of those days where it starts out promising, then the bottom falls out. A rally here and there to tease us into thinking they might pull out the win, but each rally is thwarted. This 4 game losing streak is the second longest of the season. Over the last 10, the spread between high and low is about 1/3 narrower compared to the season average.
| Today | ||
| Score: | 663.54 | |
| Margin of W/L: | -7.40 | |
| Attendance: | 27,643,968 | |
| High - Low: | 31.02 | |
| Season | ||
| Record: | 42-44 | |
| Total margin of wins: | 952.84 | |
| Total margin of losses: | -994.97 | |
| YTD gain/loss: | -42.13 | -5.97% |
| Best Win: | 110.58 | Mar 9 |
| Worst Loss: | -68.83 | Jan 11 |
| Last 10: | 3-7 | |
| Streak: | L4 | |
| Avg margin of victory: | 22.69 | |
| Avg margin of defeat: | -22.61 | |
| Avg Attendance: | 32,184,922 | |
| Avg Attendance of Last 10: | 29,163,388 | |
| Avg High - Low: | 39.93 | |
| Avg H - L of Last 10: | 25.75 |
Estimates with software have been like this my whole career in the business (32 years). I said during the earnings call when he said 2 weeks I hoped that his team told him 1 week.
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