Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BrownOuttaSpec]

As if we didn't know this already.... EV charging stations are expanding. Coming soon to a 7-Eleven near you...

7-11 is opening 500 EV charging ports by the end of 2022

As if we needed more of an excuse to drink coffee from 7-11.

www.cnet.com

 

[tslagreen]

@Causalien was one of the few people providing information on a mysterious virus in China on this forum in mid-January 2020. When he talks about issues in that part of the world, I pay attention.

Is the crisis deepening as some from the Information have indicated?

 

[Curt Renz]

Despite TSLA being well up today, ARK was buying.

11

ARKK

06/04/2021

Buy

TSLA

88160R101

TESLA INC

4,977​

0.0144​

17

ARKQ

06/04/2021

Buy

TSLA

88160R101

TESLA INC

3,068​

0.0612​

22

ARKW

06/04/2021

Buy

TSLA

88160R101

TESLA INC

4,718​

0.0521​

 

[mongo]

Why the contrast in dates? Well, the way that S&P DJI currently does their quarterly rebalancing, the "investable weight factors" (IWF - basically an individual equity's portion of the entire Index) are frozen at the share price at the close on the Tuesday BEFORE the 2nd Friday of the rebalancing month (whew, what a mouthful).

I think you are referring to the constituent percentages, not the IWFs themselves as those are:

"Investable Weight Factor (IWF). The percentage of shares outstanding that is readily available to investors for a given company. Investors who own shares with the intention of maintaining control are said to be investors of a “strategic” nature and are not included in the IWF calculation.
"
As such, the IWF has no linkage to stock price.


Corporate actions of a size too small to force an IWF adjustement during the quarter take effect at the rebalancing. Due to IWF, total shares, and stock price changes, the total IWFified market cap changes and the constituent stocks will have their weightings as a fraction of the whole adjusted which could result in position changes. However, the float changes of the constituents should be small relative to the the entire index, so minimal impact to any single stock.

Stock price changes on their own have no imbalancing effect. The S&P500 is float adjusted market cap weighed. Absent of their own IWF changes, the value of the constituents self adjust. A stock goes up -> higher weight in index -> shares in the index are already worth more.

 

[Causalien]

Is the crisis deepening as some from the Information have indicated?

For low end chip for automakers yes. Cause the periphery small chip makers that manufacturer lower tech chip for auto were shut down due to covid infection. COVID + no water to wash hand. You understand how bad it is.

TSMC is mainly manufacturing high end chips. If I remember correctly TSLA contracts out to Samsung for their AI chip, but man, I don't know what, I assume at least one chip in that high tech tsla car is manufactured by TSMC.

There are many announcement of both Japan building plants and TSMC spending 30 bil in usa. But those new plants are going to take a while to build. So within a year we are going to see shortages. Add all these crypto miner to the mix and you got the mess we are in now. And guess what? Now Hard Drives are going to get shortages too.

 

[Creekstalker]

Hey Artful Dodger, You'll be interested to see #NakedShorts trending on Twitter right now. Apparently our old friend Tim Seymour called out the practice in reference to AMC and left the CNBC host stunned that he'd even bring it up. Here: #NakedShorts

 

[traxila]

U.S. traffic deaths soar to 38,680 in 2020; highest yearly total since 2007

U.S. traffic deaths soared after coronavirus lockdowns ended in 2020, hitting the highest yearly total since 2007 as more Americans engaged in unsafe behavior on U.S. roads, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Stunning that this number is going up.

US military had 58,000 fatalities over 11 years in Vietnam. US traffic fatalities beats that total easily every two years. Where is the anger? Where are the protests? Simply accepted as part of life...

Globally it is now at 1.35 million per year. These are only fatalities. Injuries and ruined lives? Who knows?

Can someone please figure out this autonomous car thing? Anyone. Don’t care if it is Tesla.

 

[tslagreen]

For low end chip for automakers yes. Cause the periphery small chip makers that manufacturer lower tech chip for auto were shut down due to covid infection. COVID + no water to wash hand. You understand how bad it is.

TSMC is mainly manufacturing high end chips. If I remember correctly TSLA contracts out to Samsung for their AI chip, but man, I don't know what, I assume at least one chip in that high tech tsla car is manufactured by TSMC.

There are many announcement of both Japan building plants and TSMC spending 30 bil in usa. But those new plants are going to take a while to build. So within a year we are going to see shortages. Add all these crypto miner to the mix and you got the mess we are in now. And guess what? Now Hard Drives are going to get shortages too.

Disruptions are not specific to Tesla nor the auto manufacturing business. Every aspect of industry has been effected by supply chain disruptions and labor supply shortages, particularly in the US for various reasons. A centurial pandemic causes problems in all aspects of life.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speculative question....what minimum range and kWh pack size are we thinking the “$25K” Tesla weighs in at?

I'm long-time on-record as predicting Model 2 will have a 42KWh LFP bty. I expect rge to match 3SR+ but at a much better price point. CATL claims their new cell2chassis design approaches the gravimetric energy density of current NCA cells 1st built into modules then into packs:

Tesla battery supplier Catl says new design has one million-mile lifespan

Battery-maker Catl says it is ready to make a product that could power a car over 1.2 million miles.

www.bbc.com

Other significant advantanges for LFP chemistry include:

• faster charging and discharging vs NCA/NMC
• tolerance of extended storage at 100% SOC
• much cheaper cost per KW/h capacity
• 1+ Million mile life span

To me, the range means much less in a city car. For example, NYC taxis average about 180 miles per shift (12-hrs). It's the fast recharge, and extensive charging infrastructure that matters.

Starting w. Model 3 SR+ energy use of ~125wh/km, I'd expect a 42KWh pack to provide about 320 km rge (216 mi). Doubtless, a smaller Model 2 will use less energy for the same distance.

Let's look at the energy usage jump going from the SR+ to the Model 3 LR, which is about +25wh/km or 20% more. If Model 2 is as much smaller than Model 3 SR+ is from the LR version, then we could expect Model 2 to consume about 100wh/km. If so, that 42 KWh pack now has a max. range of 420 km, which slightly exceeds the current SR+ at about 400km rge.

So in summary:

• 5-door hatch CUV w. 4 seats
• fast charging w. 420km/260mi rge
• 1 penny per mile energy cost
• 1 million-mile drivetrain
• $25K before incentives
• $10K rebate = free 1M miles
• FSD capable (2 cars in 1)
• Tesla safety + features

Why wouldn't Americans buy these in the millions per year? I know I will.

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

Well, I’m really glad that Tesla sold its bitcoin for multiple reasons. But once I saw this cult leader I have decided to liquidate my coin wallet. It was insignificant compared to my TSLA investment; but I simply cannot condone this behavior.

WARNING: adult (edit: childish) language.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400993824579588096

 

[AZRI11]

Well, I’m really glad that Tesla sold its bitcoin for multiple reasons. But once I saw this cult leader I have decided to liquidate my coin wallet. It was insignificant compared to my TSLA investment; but I simply cannot condone this behavior.

WARNING: adult (edit: childish) language.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400993824579588096

 

[Paul_SF]

Can you imagine all those energy hogs, useless miners, are not needed and people won’t buy more chips and hard drives for protocols that are so inefficient and do nothing but money for those kind of people like those on that stage?
You think that will help with the shortages in chips, and hard drives?

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm long-time on-record as predicting Model 2 will have a 42KWh LFP bty. I expect rge to match 3SR+ but at a much better price point. CATL claims their new cell2chassis design approaches the gravimetric energy density of current NCA cells 1st built into modules then into packs:

Tesla battery supplier Catl says new design has one million-mile lifespan

Battery-maker Catl says it is ready to make a product that could power a car over 1.2 million miles.

www.bbc.com

Other significant advantanges for LFP chemistry include:

• faster charging and discharging vs NCA/NMC
• tolerance of extended storage at 100% SOC
• much cheaper cost per KW/h capacity
• 1+ Million mile life span

To me, the range means much less in a city car. For example, NYC taxis average about 180 miles per shift (12-hrs). It's the fast recharge, and extensive charging infrastructure that matters.

Starting w. Model 3 SR+ energy use of ~125wh/km, I'd expect a 42KWh pack to provide about 320 km rge (216 mi). Doubtless, a smaller Model 2 will use less energy for the same distance.

Let's look at the energy usage jump going from the SR+ to the Model 3 LR, which is about +25wh/km or 20% more. If Model 2 is as much smaller than Model 3 SR+ is from the LR version, then we could expect Model 2 to consume about 100wh/km. If so, that 42 KWh pack now has a max. range of 420 km, which slightly exceeds the current SR+ at about 400km rge.

So in summary:

• 5-door hatch CUV w. 4 seats
• fast charging w. 420km/260mi rge
• 1 penny per mile energy cost
• 1 million-mile drivetrain
• $25K before incentives
• $10K rebate = free 1M miles
• FSD capable (2 cars in 1)
• Tesla safety + features

Why wouldn't Americans buy these in the millions per year? I know I will.

Cheers!

Your estimates are logical and reasonable. Even if you are overly optimistic by 5% here or 10% there, the vehicle is quite compelling. If Tesla could find a way to get these in the hands of consumers while there are still rebates....WOW. Seriously wow.

 

[printf42]

Hey Artful Dodger, You'll be interested to see #NakedShorts trending on Twitter right now. Apparently our old friend Tim Seymour called out the practice in reference to AMC and left the CNBC host stunned that he'd even bring it up. Here: #NakedShorts

CNBS anchor Melissa Lee saying “naked shorts, yeah” on live stream and immediately got producers yelling in her ears, that facial expression at that moment is golden.

SMR have to do a video about this.

It’s so funny all these things Wall Street had done to TSLA went unchecked, but when they just casually did the same to this tiny hopeless company, everything backfired and got exposed.

I heard a lot of stories that a serial killer got away for decades but later got caught because a traffic stop for a broken tail light.
I guess this might turn out to be a similar story.

This Is why I am still holding most of my GME and AMC positions, and fully prepared to lose those all for the cause.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I think you missed my point. Gary is all about timing the market and that is not the most productive way to invest, statistically speaking. Look at how the most successful investors invest and act accordingly. Hoping the stock splits reeks of short-term thinking. The only reason I would be in favor is if Elon thought he could burn the naked shorts again.

He's not "all about timing the market." He sets a fair value for the SP, based on his model, and trades upon it. I do the same. TSLA SP just hasn't hit my number, yet, so I haven't sold.

He's been buying as the stock has dropped...He sold pretty close to a top this year and then bought back in when it dropped. So what? The current SP isn't anywhere close to his target, btw.

Have you sold any TSLA since purchasing? If so, why? Can't seem to find the posts of yours about selling after the run-up last Summer, though I remember you talking about your sales of TSLA. I believe in the high 400s when it spiked. Also recall you talking about buying options. Is that not timing?

Twitter sucks in so many ways. Lots of noise. But you can easily go to gary's twitter feed and read all of his reasoning for free. It's easy. He's much more forthcoming than most of us.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Your estimates are logical and reasonable. Even if you are overly optimistic by 5% here or 10% there, the vehicle is quite compelling. If Tesla could find a way to get these in the hands of consumers while there are still rebates....WOW. Seriously wow.

Model 2 production will begin around +/-2023 (this has been part of the plan for years). But how long will U.S. EV rebates last, you may ask? Well, lets do a simple time appreciation:

• 2019 Annual auto sales: ~17 million units
• Sales req'd to trigger rebate phase out: 8.5 million "electric vehicles"
• Much depends on depending on lang. in Bill (are PHEVs + BEVs counted?)
  • let's assume BEV reaches price parity with ICE in 2025
  • let's further assume PHEV cost > BEV + ICE (duplicate drivelines)
  • let's conclude that PHEV don't achieve high mkt share (uncompetitive)
  • so let's simplify the question to when are BEV sales > ICE sales?
• Let's assume Ford can double prod. each year: (current ICE = 4m/yr)
  • 2021 50K
  • 2022 100K
  • 2023 200K
  • 2024 400K
  • 2025 800K
  • 2026 1.6m
  • 2027 3.2m
  • let's stop here (already > 75% of Ford prod are EVs)
  • realistically, this is faster than Ford's targets (maybe 50% by 2030)
• Let's further assume that all other Manufacturers combined selling into N. America can match Ford's growth. That' puts their combined EV sales at around 6 m units by 2027 (again likely optimistic; realistic may be 4 m units by 2030)
• the above implies that somewhere between 2027 and 2030, automakers other than Tesla may be producing about half the EVs required to trigger the end of rebates. This implies that Telsa has headspace to sell approx 4.5m cars per year into the USA (w. over 50 market share of EVs and around 26% mkt share of all auto sales) before the rebate threshold is triggered
• Let's assume Tesla sells 1/3 of their autos in the USA (3 fully functional Gigafactories). Then Telsa worldwide production would be about 13.5m units/yr when USA reaches 4.5m/yr
• At 50% CAGR, that 13.5m/yr prod. rate is achieved around 2028 (Model 1/Robotaxi begun)
• a 2-year phase-out for rebates see them ending around 2030, but by then Tesla is over 20m units per year prod, with about 7m sales in the USA alone (that's nearing 40% mkt share by Tesla for all U.S. auto sales in 2030, and likely with > 75% EVs share of total U.S. auto mkt
• The above analysis just shows what truly dire straits EV late adopters are in going forward. If they can achieve a wildly optimistic transformation of their entire production capacity within this decade, then they will still finish a distant 2nd to Tesla (but they survive)
• If they can not; its GAME STOP. As in, dey Ford'd

Let's use these estimates to expose our secret plan:

1. Steal underpants
2. ???
3. Profit.

HTH (btw, we're well into Step 3 now).

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

He wasn't being dramatic at all, parts of Taiwan have been rationing water with 5 days of water supply and 2 days without for like a month already.
View attachment 669685

Holy significant digits, Batman! Does that compiler even know just how much one one-millionth of a day is? It is less than one tenth of a second.
Where is a precision ≠ accuracy Moderator when one mosts needs one?

 

[Tslynk67]

Have we ever been vindicated in such a short time (less than 24 hours)? This must be a record right?

Technically not 24 hours as the weekend intervened, but in trading days... Remember 420gate with the SEC offer initially in private being rejected by Elon, they charged him on the Friday (now there's some top-drawer manipulation for you )

Shorty were up all Friday night partying, Elon accepted a deal early on Saturday - then they started shouting "fraud" - no doubt they'd been shorting and selling puts all day like it was going out of fashion and they had all weekend to stew

-14% on the Friday, +15.5% on the Monday 1% higher than the previous Thursday - ah, those were the days!

 

[printf42]

Fresh new rumors about China May 21 sales:

m3 sales 7537 export 16874
mY sales 11477 export 8347
Total 44235
Unclear source, not verifiable

 

[Wicket]

the model 2 is an expansion of TAM and nice but 25k$ is an extreme theory. the model y is vicinity of 12k$ gross profit each. You have to stay ballpark that or you risk cannibalization. Given Tesla is still ramping I would find it odd to jump in with a price 30% lower than best price achieved so far in order to create demand multiples higher than they can serve. Further, robotaxi presses for higher purchase price since the value of the vehicle becomes how desirable it is to ride customers.

Tesla’s biggest valuation component will remain 3/y even in regime of model 2. They can continue to drop prices and cost on these models As time goes on. Eventually they have the institutional power and intelligence to cross the biggest chasm of all. Introducing a new color.