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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Maybe that's the drive unit building. Flybrandenburg's video from today shows a fairly empty GA/BIW area.This was posted yesterday (pictures dated "June") from the inside of GF Berlin, quite impressive I must say:
Whole gallery:
see timestamped vid below.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
How would a CUM / rights issue impact LEAPS and other bullish longterm positions like a sold puts, or long calls / LEAPS?
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1. I believe Elon decided to not accept Plaid+ pre-orders a week or so ago so that it would push those wanting to order one to have to purchase a Plaid instead.
2. Phone calls to Plaid+ reservation holders were to let people know that they can switch their order to a Plaid so they can receive it this month. I mean is every Plaid+ reservation holder following the Tesla news that closely?
3. Maybe the demand is a bit soft for the Plaid compared to the Plaid+. There is that silly effect on high end sports cars that people have to buy the "top" model so Plaid+ immediate demand is a bit higher than Plaid. Also, Elon did stop pre-orders for that possible reason.
4. In my situation, I ordered a Plaid+ knowing fully it won't arrive for a while. I don't need a Model S this year. So I will likely cancel my order if it automatically turns into a Plaid order.
5. Plaid+ biggest advantage is range and maybe marginal performance increase compared to Plaid. Achieving better 0-60mph acceleration with the Plaid+ vs Plaid will likely only occur in narrow optimal conditions and really not necessary.
6. 4680 is likely not ready or doesn't make sense to put in just one version of the Model S. Likely Elon made the decision to not sell the 4680 Model S and offer it as a mid cycle update in the long term to the Model S and X. Obviously Tesla already has done the engineering for it so they will save it for Gen 4 (assuming this major interior update is Gen 3) in a few years.
We will see, if Plaid+ orders get transferred to Plaid, if so then points above make sense. If not, Plaid+ is still on but potentially delayed at this point.
2. Phone calls to Plaid+ reservation holders were to let people know that they can switch their order to a Plaid so they can receive it this month. I mean is every Plaid+ reservation holder following the Tesla news that closely?
3. Maybe the demand is a bit soft for the Plaid compared to the Plaid+. There is that silly effect on high end sports cars that people have to buy the "top" model so Plaid+ immediate demand is a bit higher than Plaid. Also, Elon did stop pre-orders for that possible reason.
4. In my situation, I ordered a Plaid+ knowing fully it won't arrive for a while. I don't need a Model S this year. So I will likely cancel my order if it automatically turns into a Plaid order.
5. Plaid+ biggest advantage is range and maybe marginal performance increase compared to Plaid. Achieving better 0-60mph acceleration with the Plaid+ vs Plaid will likely only occur in narrow optimal conditions and really not necessary.
6. 4680 is likely not ready or doesn't make sense to put in just one version of the Model S. Likely Elon made the decision to not sell the 4680 Model S and offer it as a mid cycle update in the long term to the Model S and X. Obviously Tesla already has done the engineering for it so they will save it for Gen 4 (assuming this major interior update is Gen 3) in a few years.
We will see, if Plaid+ orders get transferred to Plaid, if so then points above make sense. If not, Plaid+ is still on but potentially delayed at this point.
Musk tweeted recently that the Y from Texas will use 4680s. I think it's definitely prime time for that cell right now if not yesterday.
This didn't age well
Nolimits
Member
My wife has been asking for the model Y for months now. She’s been stealing my M3 every chance she gets. If 4680 is live, I am waiting out for the Austin model Y for sure. Will they likely do a price hike though? My cybertruck is on order as well. Will they have enough 4680 to do cybertruck, the S AND model Y? I am thinking the cybertruck and S will likely take them first since the Y doesn’t really need them now. Likey in the Austin Y “refresh” perhaps? Realistically, I am thinking - 4680 MY in 2023/2024. Hopefully I am wrong and they can ramp Up the batteries faster.
This has already been answered by Elon himself. Texas Model Y will use 4680 cells from the start.
You need to realize though that there will be zero spec difference between a Texas model y and a Fremont. Tesla will simply use less 4680 cells in the Texas Y so that the range, acceleration, etc will be exactly the same. There will not be a price difference between Fremont and Texas Y’s
Yup people have the misconception that 4680s are somehow better spec. No Tesla will use less of it as it's more dense to increase margins. What the 4680s allow is perhaps LR+ models but you'll have to pay. It's not going to be a freebie.
No direct impact at all because option holders are not shareholders.
If you are short calls and ITM, you can probably expect early assignment.
Sold puts would just go OTM and you'd collect 100% premium.
On the positive side, if you were long LEAPS and ITM, you can exercise early. Though I would not advise that based on lack of concrete info.
Elon tweet
Looks like the annual shareholder meeting should be end of July/ early August.
In 2020 it was Sept 22
In 2019 it was June 11
In 2018 it was June 5
In 2017 it was June 6
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I would love it if it were possible to do what you are contemplating AND Tesla did it. But I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the legality of it (the way you have envisioned it working). I'm not saying it's not possible, I just don't see it and don't think it will happen.
But I want to point out that even long-term investors would still be getting diluted. Because there is the granting of new shares at an old price. This brings in less money than the shares are worth. And new shareholders (those who purchased recently and are not eligible) get diluted even more. I don't see how this is legal. It does create two classes of shareholders and it does it after the new shareholders have already invested. It would seem for this to be legal, it would have to apply to ALL current shares. And then it's still dilutive, even more so than a capital raise at market prices. Am I missing something?
The very act of a normal capital raise (the company selling new shares in exchange for cash) is dilutive (even if shareholders have not lost any immediate value). Value (or money) does not manifest from thin air.
agastya
Member
If 4680 ramp is exceeding expectations... there's also a very good chance the new assembly line that is being built at Fremont is probably going to be a 4680 Model Y line.
Get the batteries from Kato Road, the castings are probably already flowing from Texas...and it gives the mothership close look at building the structural Y.
The more I think about it, the more it sounds likely - why would Fremont not have a structural model Y line on a new tent assembly line being commissioned.
What if there is a Plaid Y based on 4680s
Pras
Member
Can there be two versions of 4680 form cells? One for plaid and other for regular version?If 4680 ramp is exceeding expectations... there's also a very good chance the new assembly line that is being built at Fremont is probably going to be a 4680 Model Y line.
Get the batteries from Kato Road, the castings are probably already flowing from Texas...and it gives the mothership close look at building the structural Y.
The more I think about it, the more it sounds likely - why would Fremont not have a structural model Y line on a new tent assembly line being commissioned.
What if there is a Plaid Y based on 4680s
With the Plaid generation off the deck and the GFs coming online in late 3rd qtr, now is a nice window to focus on FSD. We could see an accelerated series of releases that generate a lot of excitement while the plaid launch cash covers for the rollout of subscription.
I love it when a plan comes together.
InTheShadows
Active Member
So next question. Will the regular S have the 4680 packs too?
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