Hummm… more resources for an early Cyber Truck launch!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Wow. I predict some pretty upset Plaid+ buyers that just a few days ago declined to downgrade to a regular Plaid for immediate delivery. Does explain some of the rumors about better than expected specs on the regular plaid though.
Dayam. Been holding out for the 500 mile Plaid (+). Definitely disappointed.
Unless... the range on the regular Plaid mysteriously jumps to 500 miles on Jun 10. One can dream.
How is Plaid + cancelled? Will the active spoiler be an option then?
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Who cares about the spoiler. What about the SpaceX package??? The world needs the SpaceX rockets!!!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Tesla Model 3 becomes most popular battery electric car on UK roads
Surge in sales for US carmaker in first four months of 2021 pushes Nissan Leaf into second place
www.theguardian.com
TM3 sold in UK since 2019 (volume in September from memory, but a few before, June, maybe earlier).
More TM3 than any other EV including Leafs (many made in UK, sold for many more years) - 18+% of UK EV Market
Edit: hadn't noticed this elsewhere:-
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agastya
Member
Ties in with the leaks so far - Plaid has the 4680s as well as the structural pack based on this reply by Elon last year.
In a way, it's probably for the good, gives Tesla good product separation between the refreshed S, the Plaid S and Roadster
In a way, it's probably for the good, gives Tesla good product separation between the refreshed S, the Plaid S and Roadster
Or could just be elons way if saying Plaid is so good we don't need plaid +. Could be joking about plaid + being canceled. Or plaid + becomes plaid and Tesla is early on their execution.
I know for a fact that Elon is not going to allow some other company take the range crown.
How to tell people to pull up their shorts, without telling them to pull up their shorts.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
It's the 4680 cells that interested me most, I can't quite believe that Plaid has them
Figures. The Plaid+ never sat right with me.
The name ++Plaid would have been much better.
(ducking)
The name ++Plaid would have been much better.
(ducking)
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Wouldn't 4680 production need to be incredible high already for them to be able to do that? That would be a super bullish sign if they did. Considering also that there is a need for spare ones to send to Berlin, and possibly Austin before the new year.
It seems Norway likely will remove part of their EV incentives soon. Currently we have a center right goverment but there is an election this september. The center-left coalition has a 95% chance of winning says the pollsters now, so it's pretty likely they win. Exactly which party in that coalition gets the biggest win is pretty open, as they are stealing voters from each other. But all 3 parties in that coalition (Labour Party, Farmers centrist party and Socialist Left) have now all said they will add the Tesla-tax (yes that is what the MSM is calling it) if they win, possibly even from 1 jan 2022.
Though the good news is that it's a fairly good design as these things go. Currently EVs are completely exempted from our 25% sales tax, which monetarily is the biggest incentives for most EVs. ICE and hybrids also get extra fees/taxes based on their pollution levels, but very unrealistic hybrid gasoline consumption numbers those fees are lot smaller now than they used to be. So the change they are doing is they are adding in 25% sales tax on EVs over 600 000NOK (about $72 000). BUT they are only adding in on the amount above 600k NOK. So a 610 000 NOK car becomes a 612 500 NOK car while a 1 200 000 Plaid Model S becomes a 1 350 000 car. All Model 3s are nicely below that limit.
So the reason I find this reasonable is twofold. One the car manufacturers don't have to do crazy stuff to get the car just underneath a magic limit, as barely passing that limit has no material effect on the price. Secondly it does hit those that can afford expensive cars while M3 and probably MY Perf as well is not affected at all or just barely.
This in theory might effect Model S and X sales, though with the refresh less so, and for people buying cars in that price range they are usually less price sensitive anyway. This will hit both Taycan and E-tron sales though, especially Taycan gets a nice jump in price. Might also lead to a rush of deliveries before New Years this year if it goes into effect on jan 2022.
Though the good news is that it's a fairly good design as these things go. Currently EVs are completely exempted from our 25% sales tax, which monetarily is the biggest incentives for most EVs. ICE and hybrids also get extra fees/taxes based on their pollution levels, but very unrealistic hybrid gasoline consumption numbers those fees are lot smaller now than they used to be. So the change they are doing is they are adding in 25% sales tax on EVs over 600 000NOK (about $72 000). BUT they are only adding in on the amount above 600k NOK. So a 610 000 NOK car becomes a 612 500 NOK car while a 1 200 000 Plaid Model S becomes a 1 350 000 car. All Model 3s are nicely below that limit.
So the reason I find this reasonable is twofold. One the car manufacturers don't have to do crazy stuff to get the car just underneath a magic limit, as barely passing that limit has no material effect on the price. Secondly it does hit those that can afford expensive cars while M3 and probably MY Perf as well is not affected at all or just barely.
This in theory might effect Model S and X sales, though with the refresh less so, and for people buying cars in that price range they are usually less price sensitive anyway. This will hit both Taycan and E-tron sales though, especially Taycan gets a nice jump in price. Might also lead to a rush of deliveries before New Years this year if it goes into effect on jan 2022.
Well.....it has been nearly 6 months since the refresh was announced. That’s nearly 6 months of additional time for them to get yields up at Kato and get the structural pack ready.
All the delays and changes here about the Plaid + could all tie into them saying “Well we’re close at this point to getting the yield we need out of the 4680’s, let’s just delay the refresh for another month or two”.
Also one more thing to point out. Elon made a tweet a couple weeks ago talking about how they needed more time to make sure the batteries in the refreshed S was safe. Which seemed a bit weird to me considering they were still using 18650 cells. Granted new chemistry but still.......that tweet would make A LOT more sense if Tesla was planning on putting the 4680 cells in the Plaid
powertoold
Active Member
It was from the recent earnings call:
So with respect to Model S and X, there were more challenges than expected in developing the Plaid Model S or what we call the Paladium program, which is the new version of Model S and X, which has a revised interior and new battery pack and new drive units and new internal electronics and has, for example, a PlayStation 5 level infotainment system.
There’s just a lot of issues encountered, ensuring that the new factory was as also we’re saying was quite hard, because [inaudible] in a smaller pace. So it took quite a bit of development to ensure that the battery of the new S/X is safe.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Nice looking electric sport bike, made by a Canadian motorcycle company Damon. Hope they succeed!
The Damon Hypersport: A Canadian-made electric bike that’s pushing motorcycle safety forward
The toast of the most recent CES, it boasts a top speed of 320 km/h – but that speed might be the most boring thing about the Hypersport
www.theglobeandmail.com
If the Plaid turns out to have 4680s then TSLA is going to skyrocket, surely - super bullish!!
But I'm on the side of thinking it's unlikely, although possible, and expecting to be disappointed in the short term about 4680 progress.
But then why cancel Plaid+ due to 4680 as they weren't planning on delivering them until next year anyway = plenty of time to keep working on 4680s!
Who knows though, as you say, they've been quiet on this for quite a while now. This could just be it all happening now...
EDIT: A theory is that Plaid+ was just a fall back in case they had issues scaling the 4680s. Sooo if all has gone well with the 4680s then plan A has been followed and Plaid+ next year just no longer required
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Possible explanation: Kato Road facility has been ramping up, obviously, but not ready for anything yet. Tesla redesigned the new Model S floorpan with two candidate pack designs... 4680 and 18650. Obviously deep enough to fit the 4680, but 18650 can be used if the 4680's aren't ready yet. (No castings yet, IMO.)
I'm wondering if internal data came down the pike recently that Roadrunner facility could produce enough 4680's to supply vehicle production at low volumes - and the Model S is a low-volume product. So recently they internally decided to switch to the structural/4680 battery pack.
Future developments include starting up Model X production, and front+rear castings for both.
Hard to believe 4680 cell progress is going anything but according to plan, if not better than planned, when Elon is going on Twitter and openly stating Texas and Berlin Y’s will use 4680 cell and at the same time, saying both gigafactories will start production this year. There’s simply no other way to makes sense of those two things unless 4680 cell production is going quite wellIf the Plaid turns out to have 4680s then TSLA is going to skyrocket, surely - super bullish!!
But I'm on the side of thinking it's unlikely, although possible, and expecting to be disappointed in the short term about 4680 progress.
But then why cancel Plaid+ due to 4680 as they weren't planning on delivering them until next year anyway = plenty of time to keep working on 4680s!
Who knows though, as you say, they've been quiet on this for quite a while now. This could just be it all happening now...
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