Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Captkerosene]

Robot could beat FSD to market. Very few safety concerns. This market is 20X as big as cars and the margins will be huge. Nobody else has all the pieces necessary to make this happen. Elon downplayed the robot because he doesn't want the company to lose focus ..;.. but this is really big. I've been thinking of selling some more of my shares lately to buy more BTC, but this presentation changed my mind. If anything, I'll be buying more.

Wait till ARK runs the numbers on robot.

 

[Artful Dodger]

it's 4am in Germany and I'm wide awake speechless

Ironic, because in Detroit its 1984.

Cheers!

 

[CLK350]

I'm curious ($), a learning machine, eh? What else could DOJO do? Predict weather? Game theory? CAD Designs?
Or are we thinking they rent it to take a massive amount of my videos of a camera mounted on a shovel so I'll never have to dig another trench?

Anything that involves vision and learning: all doctors and technicians evaluating X Rays/ MRI/ EKG's, ... picking fruits and vegetables, wine making (some high end winemakers already use some form of automated selection of grapes, after they are picked ind cleaned), removing or controlling weeds - so replacing herbicides, ...

 

[capster]

C’mon Tesla: “humanoid” robots? Make ‘em octopus-like. MUCH more versatile, particularly for fabrication purposes.

If so, “Lovecraft" will be the name of my octopic majordomo.

edit: Or would that be "R-Lovecraft"?

edit-edit: Actually, I might just go with Lovecraft even if it’s humanoid. After all “Jenkins" and ”Hudson" sound too much like build servers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No wonder Elon wants Crypto more efficient. This is an entire shipping container van full of massive coal-powered archaic Bitcoin mining computers that he just held up in his hand!

I predict Wall Street, EU, and World Bank monopolies are crappin’ their jockeys over the exportation potential of this equipment. Paper money just evaporated IMO

unbelievably mind blowing!!!

@The Accountant

This is an important point for your digital assets valuation estimates. Tesla may indeed be increasing their holdings of such holdings w/o purchasing them w. cash (ie: mining).

The Mind wobbles...

Cheers!

 

[NicoV]

To explain AI day to a non-technical person, I find the following clip helpful (Crocodile Dundee = Tesla, the attackers = the competition):

 

[SOULPEDL]

Earlier today, I would not have believed the robot was possible in my lifetime. But hearing this from Tesla, it's now possible in my mind. For me it was convincing, but I've seen what humans can accomplish out of Tesla so that bar is quite high already. Most will see fantasy.

Fact is, I'd pay $100K for one of these even if all it did was follow me around, but knowing it will get better with every wireless update. It just needs to walk and talk at first... SOLD! 10 bagger down the road on this one I think. Buy and hold, no telling when this takes off.

 

[NicoV]

Earlier today, I would not have believed the robot was possible in my lifetime. But hearing this from Tesla, it's now possible in my mind. For me it was convincing, but I've seen what humans can accomplish out of Tesla so that bar is quite high already. Most will see fantasy.

Fact is, I'd pay $100K for one of these even if all it did was follow me around, but knowing it will get better with every wireless update. It just needs to walk and talk at first... SOLD! 10 bagger down the road on this one I think. Buy and hold, no telling when this takes off.

I’d want one even if the only thing it could do was keeping the house clean.
And then wait for the update to do some weeding in the garden.
And then the update to wash the car.
And then , and then, and so on.

 

[Oveeus]

I think they can be priced much lower than that. The most expensive part of a tesla vehicle is the battery. At 125 pounds, there aren't many batteries in the robot. Vision can use same cameras as the vehicles. Other parts can be common mass produced components. Then there is the FSD computer. I think Tesla could get a basic robot to under $10,000 with mass production.

The software will be where they make money. Similar to video game console makers, Tesla could sell the robots at cost, or even at a loss, and make money selling software packages. Pick and choose what software licenses you want and it may all or most of it be subscription based.

$9999 for your robot, $200 a month in subscription fees. Could be a wide range depending on the software. Want a general laborer for doing landscaping? If you were paying a human $15 an hour, 40 hours a week, 4 weeks a month that's $2400 a month, not counting overhead.

This will bring to discussion the idea of universal basic income. I realize that is political, but Elon is right. That discussion is going to be needed in the next few years.

I can't say for sure about the $$ model. However, the Tesla bot doesn't need all that much battery to power if 125lb is the target weight and 5km is the target speed.

A model 3 is nearly 4000lbs with a top speed of over 150mph. The battery needs to be at 50+ kwh because there's no other way to achieve it. And that's the part that drains most of the power from an EV... actually moving it. The Tesla bot could use 1/10 of model 3 battery pack and last a day moving.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Elon is actually an evil mastermind plotting to take over the world Mars we're in trouble.

But this tech is awesome.

FTFY.

2050 called: "Let it be known that the Robot that climbed Olympus Mons was a TESLA ROBOT!"

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Other guy: simulation will be good for Optimus
Elon: uh… Optimus is the robot
Other guy: oops
Elon: Optimus… as in Prime

Pretty sure he said Optimus SubPrime.

 

[Oveeus]

Earlier today, I would not have believed the robot was possible in my lifetime. But hearing this from Tesla, it's now possible in my mind. For me it was convincing, but I've seen what humans can accomplish out of Tesla so that bar is quite high already. Most will see fantasy.

Fact is, I'd pay $100K for one of these even if all it did was follow me around, but knowing it will get better with every wireless update. It just needs to walk and talk at first... SOLD! 10 bagger down the road on this one I think. Buy and hold, no telling when this takes off.

Please... as a working parent of 2 boys, if this robot can just take care of the cleaning house part of the chores, I will buy it in a heartbeat.

Joke aside... Tesla Bot is huge. Tesla is the only company that could announce something like this and the market would pay attention because it has the hardware and software know-how to make it happen, and the infrastructure in place to scale it.

With shrinking population and society getting older and older, it's a matter of time when we need robots to take care of our aging population. With our of advances in medicine, a baby born today is expected to reach 100yrs old without major effort. Our body, the mechanical side of things such as moving and lifting stuff is relatively easy to solve. You build a decent exoskeleton suit and that's it. But if it's the mind that's deteriorating, there isn't much way to help even with Neuralink. A humanoid robot can take care of that.

 

[Sancho]

From a recruitment perspective: a large percentage of engineers of all kinds first become attracted to engineering via robotics. Working on the Tesla Bot will attract lots of amazing talent.

From an investor perspective: all this AI and robotic stuff is an essentially free option we get with each chair of stock we own. The current SP doesn’t even fairly reflect the future value of automotive (without FSD). The capital spend on this stuff is relatively small.

This free option is not currently priceable, but given how important AI and robotics is going to be in the future, it could be…yuge.

In just a decade, Elon and his companies have both engineered and profitably monetized transformative innovations in transportation, space travel and energy. The next decade starts with Elon having all the capital and talent he could possibly need. To bet against him seems very foolish.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok, so how do you even put a value on Tsla right now? I don’t think even the most optimistic models I have seen can come close at this point.

I dunno, Warren R. is considered pretty optimistic... now, will that become realistic?

(HODL)

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's true, but just because they can do it, doesn't mean they should. It doesn't appear to have anything to do with "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy"

Of course it does. Here's a trival example: one Marvin posted at every Supercharger location (starting with the ones used by 24-hr Robotaxis).

Need another example? Robots go clean up Fukushima, BEFORE the cooling water ponds crack and dump their witch's brew of long-lived radionuclides into the Pacific.

Don't let the blinders of your personal prejudices block this clear view of an expansive future. Any tech can be used for good or evil. You wanna stop using fork and knife?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can't see much if any connection between a Teslabot and the company's mission ("Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy")

Will they find some way to fit the bot in, or will the mission need to be updated?

So, no fart mode?

 

[Artful Dodger]

You could argue that FSD isn't aligned with the mission either.

No, you really can't. FSD is the core technology that will allow 1 robotaxi to replace 5 to 10 ICE cars.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Repetitive jobs that humans don't want to do, sounds like some production line work to me.

Sounds like Grade School to me. Esp. the part about dirty, smelly, and dangerous.

If only we had a learning computer...

Cheers!

 

[S3XY]

Kind of....

He now puts both HW4 and Cybertruck together, and a year away--- so I don't love the answer but happy there WAS an answer.

I'm unsure how he still expects HW3 to be able to do legit FSD (ie above L2) given it can't run redundantly though, that bit was semi-asked but glossed over in the answer.

They still might start producing the Cybertruck early next year. If so, the first builds would have the FSD Computer 1 chip but still have the rest of the HW4 suite. My Model 3 had to be upgraded to the FSDC1 chip once it became available. Maybe they will do something similar with the CT and FSDC2. Although, now that Elon let the cat out of the bag about it coming out in about a year that might cause reservation holders to push back their order to make sure they get the latest and greatest. On the other hand, the CT is so highly anticipated that I could see people not caring so much about FSDC2 and ordering anyway just to get their hands on it. Plus there likely would be an upgrade path at least for HW4 equipped cars. All that said I don't think we'll see the Cybertruck coming off the line until at least mid 2022.

 

[S3XY]

Displacing humans from doing menial jobs can save some energy no? If we can save someone from injuries from doing repetitive work, there’s got to be some cost/energy savings. I bet some insurance companies know this…

Sure, but what will the TMC moderators do all day then?