Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Holy crap, how does one company do all of this?

More specifically, how do they do all this and still show a profit each quarter?

This highlights how many people there must be at Ford and GM and drawing a nice salary and basically contributing nothing to the value offered to the customer.

 

[22522]

Since my last post was pretty negative I should add that I was pretty happy with everything pre-robot and also with most of the Q&A. It's very refreshing to see real engineers describing their work.

Someone looked at the R&D expense difference. If Elon bears down, he could design the electromechanical part of that robot in 2 weeks, himself. The rest is just car parts bolted on.

I think the negativity is from being lied to about how long, and how much money it takes to engineer something. You could be applying NASA costs to SpaceX results.

 

[ABCTG]

Tesla bot is a logical next step; Solve FSD, and it can be used in applications other than for a passenger vehicle.

There are so many repetitive boring jobs, many of them are in third world manufacturing, but there are still plenty of conveyor belt type jobs where the same item is placed by a human in the same place over and over, and many people choose not to do such boring jobs.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Re the question - Why the humanoid form vs something else? Here's my take.

For the same reason the cars only need vision to drive (bc all the roadsigns, lights... were designed around human vision), the human form will operate most effectively because everthing was made for the human form. It offers the maximum # of possible tasks "Optimus" could accomplish. This best explains the starting point, then enhancements could come later as he pointed out.

Definitely placing a deposit. I checked... it's not up there yet. Finally, we'll have a drummer that can wait silently for everyone else to learn the songs. It would be simply amazing, such a drummer!

 

[Knightshade]

Definitely placing a deposit. I checked... it's not up there yet. Finally, we'll have a drummer that can wait silently for everyone else to learn the songs. It would be simply amazing, such a drummer!

I believe they said they were a year away from a prototype.

Tesla doesn't typically take deposits or orders before they've got at least one physical prototype to show.

 

[CLK350]

I think it is way premature to introduce a humanoid robot now. Given that they were unable to site a specific example of a "repetitive, boring or dangerous task" to tackle first, it is very clear that anything even slightly useful will be many years away. I guess they did it for recruiting because I don't see how it adds value otherwise. Even then it's a bit questionable.

I think it's fine to start working on this concept but keep it under wraps until you have some progress and even when it's ready to be revealed don't call it a product from the get go. For sure Wall St. won't like it (they never like anything) but there's some validity to it this time.

The press will certainly take that investor viewpoint, but given that there will be FUD anyway, it probably doesn't matter.
From the recruiting perspective this event was made for, it is a really gutsy albeit very "first principles" initiative. And added a light entertaining touch that might help with recruiting.
Re TeslaBot, my take is that if they don't come with some sort of agreement with Boston Dynamics, Tesla aka Elon won't hesitate to tackle this in house. Actually although a joint venture with Boston Dynamics makes sense, going it alone might be more prudent long term. Or approach it like they did with Panasonic.
Pneumatics is hard, but space rockets are harder, right?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Pretty sure the market is going to have a field day with this tomorrow. "I don't understand it. It sounds like a bad futuristic horror movie script. Elon has lost his mind...again. What does this have to do with selling cars?"

Stock drops 10%

Really hope I'm wrong. Either way...I'm still bullish AF. Gotta get my hands on some dry powder.

Dan

 

[Wicket]

There is a contradiction here between saying engineers are a bottleneck on FSD and developing a parallel project that requires engineering. I suspect unfortunately this may have some Roadster 2 qualities to it. Long term I was expecting this but circa 2025+ when robotaxi is reasonably baked. So I’m gonna guess this is a sore point for the next few years. Also, I’m surprised how many people think the mission statement is so literally the mission. Let’s not be naive. They should change it though imo to ‘build future better’ or something.

 

[PeterJA]

I am also confused about a tesla bot...

Elon said why they are making it:

"We’re making the pieces that would be useful for a humanoid robot, so we should probably make it. If we don’t, someone else will — and we want to make sure it’s safe."

 

[MC3OZ]

I think it is way premature to introduce a humanoid robot now. Given that they were unable to site a specific example of a "repetitive, boring or dangerous task" to tackle first, it is very clear that anything even slightly useful will be many years away. I guess they did it for recruiting because I don't see how it adds value otherwise. Even then it's a bit questionable.

I think it's fine to start working on this concept but keep it under wraps until you have some progress and even when it's ready to be revealed don't call it a product from the get go. For sure Wall St. won't like it (they never like anything) but there's some validity to it this time.

The point of AI Day was recruitment, and IMO retention..... in fact if there is a negative short term share price hit, Elon would probably accept that if AI Day helps recruit and retain the right kind of talent...

Robots work well with the Tesla network, all sorts of deliveries, in turn this helps ensure EVs displace ICE in all delivery applications...

A useful Robot is years away, but I think they need to advertise positions for staff with the experience help build Robots.

 

[mltv]

The point of AI Day was recruitment, and IMO retention..... in fact if there is a negative short term share price hit, Elon would probably accept that if AI Day helps recruit and retain the right kind of talent...

Robots work well with the Tesla network, all sorts of deliveries, in turn this helps ensure EVs displace ICE in all delivery applications...

A useful Robot is years away, but I think they need to advertise positions for staff with the experience help build Robots.

There's only a limited number of top engineers in the valley (or in the world). Companies fortunes are can change with the movements of these talents. This AI Day recruitment is a genius move (a passionate plea goes a long way). No need to focus on little details on the immediate projects.

 

[lafrisbee]

Am I really gonna live long enough to see a human robot shopping for groceries? It almost makes it worth trying to keep living.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428567490016075779

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think it is way premature to introduce a humanoid robot now. Given that they were unable to site a specific example of a "repetitive, boring or dangerous task" to tackle first, it is very clear that anything even slightly useful will be many years away. I guess they did it for recruiting because I don't see how it adds value otherwise. Even then it's a bit questionable.

I think it's fine to start working on this concept but keep it under wraps until you have some progress and even when it's ready to be revealed don't call it a product from the get go. For sure Wall St. won't like it (they never like anything) but there's some validity to it this time.

I agree with you, but that’s just how Elon rolls. We’ll see a Teslabot in five years. Meanwhile, it makes great headlines and will scoop up lots of young talented engineers.

 

[Cobbler]

Loved the first part of the fsd/dojo presentation!
It increased my confidence that Tesla is on the right path making FSD happening!

I'm sorry... but the spandex guy dancing, humanoid idea... kinda freaked me out. Imho should've waited another year before revealing this until there is an actual prototype ready! Now that part had a big vaporware feeling for me. I know I'll get many dislikes for it... But that's my honest opinion.
I get the idea that Tesla is making the building blocks and infrastructure for the software that eventually will be applied to Optimus.
Elon is like: "hey, I have just invented the transistor. I can make/sell a Playstation 5 out of it" He's not wrong, but the timeframe is messed up.
At this stage, is it really necessary for Tesla to announce products that'll take years again before they ship anything to customers?
(Roadster 2, Semi announced in 2017. Solar roof 2016.... Cybertruck 2019... I get the argument that Tesla needed access to capital from investors, hence the look at future portfolio). I whish time between announcement and shipment of products was shorter.... But Optimus really enlarged that feeling


Maybe it's because I was watching this from Belgium and being tired... need to sleep on it... let it sink in, digest it further. Maybe tomorrow after reading other opinions, different views,..., I'll have a different opinion.

 

[Eugene Ash]

That would be a $100 billion question. I hope it gets asked! (AWS 2.0)

Was asked by Rob M. on conf call. Elon was open to it.

look up Google TPU v4

1.1 Exaflops used for serving ads, based on snooping via home assistants. So not really useful.

I feel so dumb right now.

I feel inadequate compared to these purpose-driven demi-gods on stage

Yeah, as shockingly good as GPT-3, it is ONLY a text based AI system. This thing is, borrowing Elon's fav term, xxx orders of magnitude more complex AND more capable.

This simulation gives me a vivid representation of one scene described in Max Tegmark's Human 3.0:

The Omega Team of the first company in the world which achieved Artificial General Intelligence started to look for ways to conquer the world through their AGI and one benign way to start is entertainment, here's an excerpt of the book:



This is both scary and fascinating and it's never felt so real and so close.

TV series "Better than humans" was a good watch, a bit Cyberpunk/distopian and covered society and robots....

Yo - "dangerous" was mentioned as a criteria. I'm watching the news. Maybe firefighting might be worthwhile for robots to do if extended, expensive, and tiring wildfire seasons continue. Notch up for any emergency disaster scenarios for large quantities of robots to be deployed as needed.

Too soon, too soon (first responders NTSA)

Pretty sure the market is going to have a field day with this tomorrow. "I don't understand it. It sounds like a bad futuristic horror movie script. Elon has lost his mind...again. What does this have to do with selling cars?"

Stock drops 10%

Really hope I'm wrong. Either way...I'm still bullish AF. Gotta get my hands on some dry powder.

Dan

I HOPE IT DOES, Dry powder ready!

 

[RobDickinson]

That chip/tile. Wow.

9 petaflops, 50 of those together at once would be no1 in top500.org right now. Just 50 of them.

 

[ZachF]

There's only a limited number of top engineers in the valley (or in the world). Companies fortunes are can change with the movements of these talents. This AI Day recruitment is a genius move (a passionate plea goes a long way). No need to focus on little details on the immediate projects.

You can work for Tesla and SpaceX, and make cool cars, robots, and spaceships, work for Apple and make stupid phones, or you can work for Facebook and Google and spy on people to sell them ads!

 

[RobDickinson]

Hey, Apple is making cool cars too.

 

[generalenthu]

Since I can barely spell AI, I have been looking for some expert reactions on twitter. Here are a few. Do feel free to add any others you might come across, good or bad. Hopefully this can add more signal and less noise to the conversation.

First is from Lex Fridman:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428540411807666178

A few from James Douma, who Dave lee interviewed a few times. I suppose this means his mind is blown, in a good way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428554155077951490

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428540794026090500

This guy green who i thought would have some comment on the new information, just has a long rant on tesla dropping radar w/ factchecking. Sad.

https://twitter.com/greentheonly

The autonomous FSD Forum has been weirdly silent. Not much on reddit machine learning or on the hacker news forums yet. Any other hot takes you folks are seeing?