Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

EDIT: You have to look at what they are aiming to do and then figure out how they will try to get there. What they want is to shut down the release of beta AP/FSD software to consumers (read: the fleet data lead).

This badly misunderstands how Tesla collects data.

You don't need to have FSD... or even AP... as an option for Tesla to collect fleet data. Shadow mode campaigns can run on ALL HW2 and newer vehicles in the fleet (and do)

And I don't see how NHTSA is "aiming" to shut Teslas L2 stuff down either-- on the contrary NTSB has been harping on that for years and NHTSA has generally told them to get lost.

NHTSA has generally been pretty fair to Tesla (esp compared to NTSB).


To me, especially with the latest request for data from other OEMs, what it looks like to me is:

Someone higher up pressed NHTSA to do this investigation.

NHTSA knows it's crap, so they're going to get whatever data they can from other brands to SHOW it's crap so politicians stop bothering them with stupid things.


FWIW other car makers have already had investigations- and even actual recalls - over safety aspects of their L2 ADAS systems too.... so I'm really not seeing the "NHTSA is singling Tesla out" story here.

Phantom Braking Leads to Mazda 3 Recall

A system designed to detect obstacles in the road ahead and automatically apply the brakes is acting up in current-generation Mazda 3 vehicles.

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

Mazda recalls over 35,000 cars for phantom braking from their radar cruise control system.

U.S. probes 553,000 Nissan Rogue SUVs for unintended emergency braking

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a preliminary investigation into 553,000 Nissan Rogue sport utility vehicles after reports of their automatic emergency braking systems engaging without warning or an obstruction, the agency said on Thursday...

www.reuters.com

Over 500k Nissans investigated for false radar sudden braking problems.

Perhaps Tesla can suggest to their workers that they create a non-binding union that only does that sort of thing. In return the union will receive $1k per car built to be doled out to members on a quarterly basis. Prevents Unions from choking Tesla, helps Tesla employees, and gives the UAW the biggest middle finger possible.

Covered multiple times already- it's literally illegal to do something like this. Management can't suggest a fake union. They can't suggest anything. And certainly can't offer to pay people to create and join one.

 

[woodisgood]

Tesla could easily play the game. Encourage all Tesla workers to form an independent union. Tesla could grant the union a certain number of shares per vehicle sold, and the union could distribute the pool of shares to union members in any manner that the union members vote to approve. This sort of union-distributed stock grant would align the union and member to unit production goals, cars per unit of labor productivity gains, and general shareholder value creation.

It'd be hard for the UAW or any other traditional union to offer a better deal.

And not just Tesla, but Rivian, Lucid, and every other EV company would look to do the same. All would be doing so simply to maximize rebate.

And that’s without even getting to all the other non-Ford non-GM automakers who are disadvantaged by this.

 

[jhm]

Who receives the credit depends on demand. The benefit is definitely split in some way.


Perhaps Tesla can suggest to their workers that they create a non-binding union that only does that sort of thing. In return the union will receive $1k per car built to be doled out to members on a quarterly basis. Prevents Unions from choking Tesla, helps Tesla employees, and gives the UAW the biggest middle finger possible.

Great minds think alike. Greater minds post quicker!

 

[Nocturnal]

Great minds think alike. Greater minds post quicker!

Ha. I think @Knightshade is probably correct though. Company created unions are illegal, and something like that might be too close for comfort legally.

 

[jhm]

Covered multiple times already- it's literally illegal to do something like this. Management can't suggest a fake union. They can't suggest anything. And certainly can't offer to pay people to create and join one.

We're not suggesting fake unions. There is a subtle difference. Employees can form their own union independently, and then petition management on how to set up and distribute a bonus pool. Management is free to negotiate the terms of the pool with the union.

Tesla employees are not stupid. They know the games being played here. They know that their product will gain an extra $4500/vehicle in demand in the US. They know that if they form a union, they have leverage with Tesla to get some share of the government incentives. Management does not have to suggest anything.

 

[Curt Renz]

@Curt Renz , any other suggestions before I do the same?

You could ask that the $4500 added tax credit be for American EVs rather than for union made EVs. You could remind them that the EV portion of the bill is for encouraging the purchase of EVs, and that any desire to encourage workers to join unions should be addressed in a separate bill.

 

[woodisgood]

This badly misunderstands how Tesla collects data.

You think Tesla’s opponents would understand this?

It’s also not just about the data collection. We can get off into the weeds (I suspect you might enjoy that) speculating exactly what training efficiency Tesla could preserve without any beta testers.

But this also about the publicity and transparency Tesla is able to generate via Youtubers/social media showing the rate of improvement and how these cars are learning to drive. If I am an AV competitor I really wish that to go away because it is generating a lot of positivity in the court of public opinion.

 

[2daMoon]

Speaking of safety and FSD rollouts, does anyone else feel like the next wave of beta testers should not be every FSD unit out there, but rather a selected group of folks from each region to be the early adopters and help with overall risk of inattentiveness among average drivers? Tesla must know whose better at taking over (100's of disengagements, zero collisions here). The same algorithm used for their insurance could be applied here I think. And let SF have at it for wide deployment as the local safety data will obviously suggest. That just seems safest (to my investment and the Tesla brand). I've been seriously trained to drive with this car, it's automatic now, I should be next for Chandler Az. Maybe I'll send another letter to Tesla...

Can anyone argue my point, or are we eager for the full impact of FSD revenue in Q3 and just give the button for all who paid? I myself am quite content in having the small number of Beta testers to this point and perhaps a bit longer. Maybe they can put enough safeguards on forcing user interaction and decisions on when to proceed etc. But still, are most going to even watch the road after just 15 min of using it - it's so good! And so the habitual phone people will just stare at their phones. That's kinda scary. It takes 3 to make an accident now if one of the vehicles is on FSD. If the 2 humans are checked out, there's an added risk for Tesla.

Following on the @JoRoMo reply.

As I recall, when the button was first mentioned it seemed clear that once FSD is requested that begins a review of the driver's history and habits based upon data from their car, and only after a review and a contract about the operation and use parameters plus a liability waiver is agreed to would a Request actually result in FSD Beta being enabled for that car.

 

[2daMoon]

Ha. I think @Knightshade is probably correct though. Company created unions are illegal, and something like that might be too close for comfort legally.

What if the UEVAW (Union of Electric Vehicle Auto Workers) voted to petition the manufacturers for those benefits? (Stocks held by the union / 1$ per Car / etc.)

I giggle a little imagining such an organization growing to the point that UAW members abandon their union to join the UEVAW as it has no dues and routinely sends money to the members.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Following on the @JoRoMo reply.

As I recall, when the button was first mentioned it seemed clear that once FSD is requested that begins a review of the driver's history and habits based upon data from their car, and only after a review and a contract about the operation and use parameters plus a liability waiver is agreed to would a Request actually result in FSD Beta being enabled for that car.

Oh... not good 4 me.

 

[ZeApelido]

Official Automaker Response to NHTSA's Request:

"We report a total of 0 incidents while our L2 systems were engaged" ***










*** We have no ability to track our systems, and we have no idea what we are doing.

 

[jhm]

What if the UEVAW (Union of Electric Vehicle Auto Workers) voted to petition the manufacturers for those benefits? (Stocks held by the union / 1$ per Car / etc.)

I giggle a little imagining such an organization growing to the point that UAW members abandon their union to join the UEVAW as it has no dues and routinely sends money to the members.

Interesting. I think EV workers in a UAW shop do have the right to call an election to decertify the UAW as their union. Then they could vote in favor of certifying the UEVAW.

 

[dhrivnak]

Exactly, especially knowing that people aren’t going to plug in the hybrids anyway (charging a small battery is has to be done frequently and for little monetary gain per charge. And it comes in addition to fueling up. Not attractive to do for lazy, eh, efficient induhviduals). For oil companies it will be mostly business as usual, small decline over time. Their representatives in the Houses will be able to live with that.

I think you are selling plug-in hybrids short. I have had both a Volt and now a RAV4 Prime. The 40 miles EV range allows us to do over half of our miles on electric. The other half of the miles are us towing our camper. Towing with a Tesla, I have learned is a real pain as range drops to about 150 miles and you often need to unhitch to charge. Most of the places we like to stay, National Parks and Nation Forests have no power. So for us they really fill a need. I have seen several studies that the average Volt owner does 75% of their miles on electricity and the VAST majority of Volt owners suffer gas anxiety as they typically go to great lengths to use as little gas as possible. Here is a peek at over 11,000 Volt owners. Volt Stats! (RIP) Tracked real world usage of Chevy Volts in the wild...

 

[aronth5]

Following on the @JoRoMo reply.

As I recall, when the button was first mentioned it seemed clear that once FSD is requested that begins a review of the driver's history and habits based upon data from their car, and only after a review and a contract about the operation and use parameters plus a liability waiver is agreed to would a Request actually result in FSD Beta being enabled for that car.

Perfect driving record here since 1968. Not even a minor fender bender and no moving violations. Feels like I'd be a good candidate especially since I've paid for FSD twice. Knowing Tesla that probably means I'll be at the end of the line. Plus I'll have extra time to drive around the Boston area now that I'm retiring early. Much thanks to my Tesla investments starting back in 2012 and reading this forum for so many years. Thanks everyone!

 

[Knightshade]

You think Tesla’s opponents would understand this?

If you mean the other companies working on ADAS and self driving who are specifically upset about the fleet gathering disadvantage- yes, I would. That's literally their job.

If they didn't understand it they wouldn't care about shutting it down.

It’s also not just about the data collection. We can get off into the weeds (I suspect you might enjoy that) speculating exactly what training efficiency Tesla could preserve without any beta testers.

Tesla could still have lots of beta testers. Employees. In fact something like 90-95 percent of the FSDBeta testers TODAY are employees not youtubers.


That said there remains 0 evidence the NHTSA is interested in "shutting down" anything at all. Indeed the fact they're asking everyone else for data suggests they're looking to do prove there's nothing especially dangerous at all in Teslas system.

But this also about the publicity and transparency Tesla is able to generate via Youtubers/social media showing the rate of improvement and how these cars are learning to drive. If I am an AV competitor I really wish that to go away because it is generating a lot of positivity in the court of public opinion.

There's absolutely nothing preventing any other company from creating youtube content to show off their progress. In fact they sometimes do.

That it's not as often probably speaks more to the rate of progress than the ability to post something to youtube

We're not suggesting fake unions. There is a subtle difference. Employees can form their own union independently, and then petition management on how to set up and distribute a bonus pool. Management is free to negotiate the terms of the pool with the union.

The person to whom I was replying specifically suggested management be the one to propose all this- which is illegal.

Certainly the workers can form one on their own. They have already voted once NOT to do so though.

Tesla employees are not stupid. They know the games being played here. They know that their product will gain an extra $4500/vehicle in demand in the US. They know that if they form a union, they have leverage with Tesla to get some share of the government incentives. Management does not have to suggest anything.

Yes but that's not the suggestion to which I was responding, which had specifically called on management to act up front to get this going.

What if the UEVAW (Union of Electric Vehicle Auto Workers) voted to petition the manufacturers for those benefits? (Stocks held by the union / 1$ per Car / etc.)

So the reason unions typically do NOT ask for stock or options is because fundamentally it turns workers into management/ownership. Studies show this leads to weaker unions because they suddenly have the same vested interest in corporate profits as the other owners do.

There's many thousands of companies that have ESOPs (employee stock ownership plans).... it's very rare that any are unionized though. Indeed it's not uncommon for the ESOP plans themselves to exclude workers if they join a union.

https://esopservices.com/articles-press/articles/unions-government-contractors-and-esops-why-non-union-esop-companies-stay-non-union/

ESOPs normally provide language along the following lines, “Members covered by a collective bargaining agreement are excluded from participation, unless the terms of such agreement specifically provide for participation in the ESOP.” Thus, if an ESOP participant who is a non-union employee joins a union, he or she will be excluded from participating in the ESOP unless the union successfully bargains for participation in the ESOP

None of which means Tesla can't be an exception. But how bout maybe we wait and see what the actual passed-into-law incentive looks like before we do a 78th rehash on How To Rube Goldberg Having Fake Unions Without Going To Jail?

 

[Singuy]

Perfect driving record here since 1968. Not even a minor fender bender and no moving violations. Feels like I'd be a good candidate especially since I've paid for FSD twice. Knowing Tesla that probably means I'll be at the end of the line. Plus I'll have extra time to drive around the Boston area now that I'm retiring early. Much thanks to my Tesla investments starting back in 2012 and reading this forum for so many years. Thanks everyone!

Do you live in California?

My guess is Bay area first, then extend to the entire state...then FL being next.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, that's an interesting last 30 mins of trading. Noticeable volume uptick and counter to macros.

Yesterday and today has seen much better volume in how's it's spread across the day. Still not high volume that I'd like to see, but at least we're seeing noticeable volume increase in the last 2 hours of trading each day.

 

[Accident]

8 points jump in 4 minutes. Gamma squeeze to hedge all the ITM calls?

 

[jbcarioca]

I appreciate the real-world perspective. No doubt other vehicles will appeal to folks with differing priorities... and nobody, not even Tesla, will be able o build a car that is all things to all people...

Today there are a variety of BEV's that have strong appeal to certain audiences, not too long ago Tesla was alone. The best of the new ones will be expanding the market. Without question China produces quite a few from the more than a dozen credible BEV builders. Stellantis has the Peugeot 208-eGT, the 2008 E, the quite excellent new Fiat 500e, their first 100% purpose built BEV. The Taycan, and even the Audi and Mercedes models ahem clear appeal to their brand loyalists. That even ignores the Mustang Mach E. Then there are scores of EU and China originated vans and trucks, which have distinct appeal, as do Chinese ones such as JAC.
Geely has also brought us the quite good Volvo and Polestar models, not to mention the iconic London EV taxicab.

We need to realize that the market is growing because of all of those. Even the sad Bolt has had it's own influences, positive until recently. Hyundai/Kia are doing quite competitive products.

As Tesla customers, investors and fans we usually dismiss most of those, but we should not do so. Some of them, like that tiny Fiat, have taken many Tesla ideas and repackaged them in an entirely different direction. As investors we should be very much aware of the Tesla mission, which is growing more realistic day by day.
All fo this will be great for TSLA shareholders, not least from those others that will become Tesla Energy customers. and from all those others who decide to try a Tesla.

All these new products seriously excite me. I have two of those others on order and will take the first one that arrives in BEV-impoverished Brazil, the sixth largest auto market in the world.

Just think of India, Indonesia, Russia, Southeast Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, nearly all the Middle East and all of Africa and South America. The next decade will have even more massive growth than just expanding market share in existing markets.

All this has been repeated often but we still need to remind ourselves just how gigantic the market will become. Very soon.

 

[Curt Renz]

The macros were down today, and almost all of the car sector.

--5.53% LCID
--1.48% VWAGY
--1.30% NIO
--1.20% NKLA
--1.00% F
--0.78% RIDE
--0.16% GM
+0.20% TSLA