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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I'm still stinging, we are right back to where we opened yesterday morning! And in two entire days of trading we have only out-performed the plebeian S&P 500 Index by a wee bit over 2%! Ouch!
/s
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is not new. Here's a "News" video from China Insights (Fri, Sep 24, 2021):
Why China is facing the worsening electricity shortage now? It severely impacts the economy
Can you see their Copyright Notice in the video description? This is part of a Paid PR Campaign, plain and simple, one which CNBC, and other media decided to pick up and run with after it'd been shopped around as fit for purpose*
Here's the same story from Bloomberg on July 23rd:
China's Power Crunches To Worsen Without More Nuclear
Here's another scary headline from July 1st (quoting CNN as a source)
China grappling with worst power shortage in a decade as ... https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com › ... › Coal
This story was pushed by Bloomberg Markets and Finance on Sep. 16, 2021
"As a global energy supply crunch fuels a surge in prices, China is staring down another winter of ..."
These stories goes on and on and on... But folks don't pick it up on their radar until it hits their usual sources of FUD. And now, it's a Q-thing so SCARDT!
TL;dr China is running out of power like they're running out of noodles: Favored industries will get their ration, everybody else is going on a diet. NEVs are a favored industry. Especially NEVs for highly profitable export (Tesla).
*that purpose is FUD
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If that 50k + is correct for Sept China sales......you know Elon's trying to hit 250k for Q3 at a statement.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Lots of great stuff in your larger post. I wanted to add one idea that I haven't seen articulated in most of the autonomous vehicle business models. There is a natural back pressure to more and more miles being moved over to autonomous vehicles.
I fully agree with the idea that as those miles get cheaper, there will be a non-linear increase in the consumption of those miles. The back pressure comes from the fact that our highways don't have unlimited capacity to support that increase in usage. There is the potential for improvement in traffic levels via autonomous vehicles doing a better job of moving at the same speed and thus the opportunity to maximize throughput. I'm not a flow control analyst, so I have no idea of how big of an improvement that can make.
The really big issue I see here are autonomous semis, with the possibility that cost/mile will fall to bulk transport levels via rail (or even cheaper). Society is providing a gargantuan subsidy to the trucking industry today in the form of a virtually free road network for the benefit of that trucking industry. The good, simplistic, estimate for the cost of road maintenance is time plus the 4th power of axle weight. Big light duty vehicles will have axle weights around 3k pounds, while the standard 18 wheeler has 5 axles (1 steering axle, 2 drive axles, and 2 trailer axles). Distributing 80k pounds over 5 axles is 16k pounds, 5x weight/axle at the 4th power means that semi is doing 5^4 = 625x the road damage.
Semi trucks do pay a lot in fuel taxes - it is probably closer to 5x (6 mpg vs 30 mpg) than 625x.
(Ever wonder about those axles being lifted and lowered on dump trucks or concrete trucks? Now you know)
One study I've read specifically resolved this down to a formula where road dmg / maintenance cost was a function of time and axle weight. Yet everybody paying fuel taxes, and taxes that get devoted to the road network, are paying for that trucking industry subsidy.
We do benefit from free shipping on orders of $25 and over though!
The rail network doesn't get a comparable societal subsidy - putting the railroads out of business via a road network subsidy is a bad idea (net cost to society).
It’s a fool that looks for logic in the advice of a Wall-Street analyst.
Tesla is about to render Rivian & Lucid cars worthless by deploying FSD Beta in wide release, 2 mins of silence to those guys!
One guy took billions of dollars and 10+ years to make one truck that has the worst efficiencies and another guy baits gullible retail investors with gimmicks to sell a car with 1970s design and thinks FSD can never even be achieved.
Shows how far ahead is Tesla.
One guy took billions of dollars and 10+ years to make one truck that has the worst efficiencies and another guy baits gullible retail investors with gimmicks to sell a car with 1970s design and thinks FSD can never even be achieved.
Shows how far ahead is Tesla.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Eh both of those companies seem to have a better future than GM or ford ...
are we sure?
sustaining themselves and making profits may turn out to be harder than they think.
RobDickinson
Active Member
No need to rush into profit, its not the 20th centaury any more
edit - ironically its through Rivians increase in value that Ford made a profit last quarter...
edit - ironically its through Rivians increase in value that Ford made a profit last quarter...
F might be the second stock I have ever shorted in 50+ years of investing. Not now, but if the market really buys this multibillion $$ plan, there will be a time. (First and only short was Bear Stearns)
The Rivian is very likely the most efficient pickup truck on the market right now by a large margin.
It is the only BEV truck on the market.
Cybertruck should easily take that crown in when it actually gets delivered in 9-18 months, but that's the future and it's wibbley wobbly until it becomes the present. (I'm liking 12 months for the Cybertruck, but I'm known to be an optimist).
RobDickinson
Active Member
I absolutely expect rivian to do fine selling trucks an the R1S along side the Cybertruck.
Its a different market and not everyone likes the CT for some reason!
Its a different market and not everyone likes the CT for some reason!
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Rivian/Lucid will sell every truck/car they make, and good for them, and good for the overall Misssion. FSD Beta button is still a long way from wide release of FSD to all Tesla owners in all Countries who bought/subcribe to FSD, and even then we still need vast improvements to get to Level 5 (Full Automation) automomy. Elon has stated roll out will be slowly with safety paramount. Not sure why you singled out Rivian and Lucid and not OEM which are more applicable with their ICE hacks.
Funny that it’s true. Less efficient than any other BEV…but the most efficient pickup truck.
Have any R1-T actually been delivered to customers yet? I saw them allegedly rolling off a ‘production line’.
Ironically I think a successful Rivian truck will actually increase excitement about BEV trucks and consequently drive demand for the only one that will be available in large volumes.
Well, I plead guilty to some hyperbole, although I said "headed for 100" not "to 100," and exponential curves never mathematically reach their asymptotes.
My point was an S-curve to 80% (your example) certainly looks headed for 100% when you're at 25%. Whether the asymptote is 80 or 90 or 100 makes no difference to my decision to HODL now.
RobDickinson
Active Member
not that I am aware off, they have made production trucks and some may have been delivered to Rivian employees.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I agree that these are issues, and I think the solution is The Boring Company (and any hypothetical future copycats).Lots of great stuff in your larger post. I wanted to add one idea that I haven't seen articulated in most of the autonomous vehicle business models. There is a natural back pressure to more and more miles being moved over to autonomous vehicles.
I fully agree with the idea that as those miles get cheaper, there will be a non-linear increase in the consumption of those miles. The back pressure comes from the fact that our highways don't have unlimited capacity to support that increase in usage. There is the potential for improvement in traffic levels via autonomous vehicles doing a better job of moving at the same speed and thus the opportunity to maximize throughput. I'm not a flow control analyst, so I have no idea of how big of an improvement that can make.
The really big issue I see here are autonomous semis, with the possibility that cost/mile will fall to bulk transport levels via rail (or even cheaper). Society is providing a gargantuan subsidy to the trucking industry today in the form of a virtually free road network for the benefit of that trucking industry. The good, simplistic, estimate for the cost of road maintenance is time plus the 4th power of axle weight. Big light duty vehicles will have axle weights around 3k pounds, while the standard 18 wheeler has 5 axles (1 steering axle, 2 drive axles, and 2 trailer axles). Distributing 80k pounds over 5 axles is 16k pounds, 5x weight/axle at the 4th power means that semi is doing 5^4 = 625x the road damage.
Semi trucks do pay a lot in fuel taxes - it is probably closer to 5x (6 mpg vs 30 mpg) than 625x.
(Ever wonder about those axles being lifted and lowered on dump trucks or concrete trucks? Now you know)
One study I've read specifically resolved this down to a formula where road dmg / maintenance cost was a function of time and axle weight. Yet everybody paying fuel taxes, and taxes that get devoted to the road network, are paying for that trucking industry subsidy.
We do benefit from free shipping on orders of $25 and over though!
The rail network doesn't get a comparable societal subsidy - putting the railroads out of business via a road network subsidy is a bad idea (net cost to society).
Traffic
TBC is looking at building almost arbitrarily large tunnel networks for AEVs for urban areas. Depending on the types of vehicles used, a single tunnel could support massive throughput of passengers. Elon in 2019 tweeted that they want to try 16-passenger vehicles with 1 second of headway for heavily trafficked routes. This is well over 50k passengers per hour per tunnel if we assume that there will be gaps in the stream and not every seat is filled. For single passenger pods running in two streams in one tunnel lane and keeping the 1 second headway assumption, this is about 6k passengers per hour, on par with light rail. And they can build almost as much as they want underground.
And there are no intersections and human-controlled highway merge points causing bottlenecks. All traffic can pop to the surface or into private subterranean parking garages, loop around and drop off passengers, then pick up a new one from there if needed, and go back on their way.
Each parking stall can support 100 vehicles per hour if dwell cycle time is 36 seconds to pull in, dump old passengers, pick up new passengers, and pull out. To scale a single station up to the maximum single-tunnel 1-second-headway limit of 3,000 vehicles per hour assuming 85% fill factor, they'd need only 30 stalls. For reference, the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop stations have 18 stalls IIRC. 30 stalls is just two rows of 15 parking spaces. To support potentially tens of thousands of passengers per hour. Wow.
Truck Road Damage
TBC is also looking at making long distance freight tunnels big enough to ship two trains of shipping containers side by side. I think this will be the cheapest and most reliable shipping in history. For road degradation, my understanding is that the problems caused by heavy trucks are most because of soil settlement. When the roadway is sitting on thick concrete which itself is sitting on solid bedrock, I believe this problem disappears.
Other Important Advantages to Underground Shipping:
> Weather does not delay logistics, nor wear out the road from thermal cycling and UV radiation
> Rolling resistance is lower than trucks on rough surface pavement
> Keeping the airflow contained in a smooth cylinder can majorly improve aerodynamic efficiency
> No hills, no starting and stopping
> Can go 100 mph or maybe more
> Possibly can traverse lakes/seas/oceans (I need to research this claim more though, but long underwater tunnels such and the English Chunnel already exist)
I did an interview with Warren Redlich in May about the Boring Company in which I discuss this stuff in much more detail.
Disclaimer: I do not own stock in TBC but desperately want to!!!
TBC is looking at building almost arbitrarily large tunnel networks for AEVs for urban areas. Depending on the types of vehicles used, a single tunnel could support massive throughput of passengers. Elon in 2019 tweeted that they want to try 16-passenger vehicles with 1 second of headway for heavily trafficked routes. This is well over 50k passengers per hour per tunnel if we assume that there will be gaps in the stream and not every seat is filled. For single passenger pods running in two streams in one tunnel lane and keeping the 1 second headway assumption, this is about 6k passengers per hour, on par with light rail. And they can build almost as much as they want underground.
And there are no intersections and human-controlled highway merge points causing bottlenecks. All traffic can pop to the surface or into private subterranean parking garages, loop around and drop off passengers, then pick up a new one from there if needed, and go back on their way.
Each parking stall can support 100 vehicles per hour if dwell cycle time is 36 seconds to pull in, dump old passengers, pick up new passengers, and pull out. To scale a single station up to the maximum single-tunnel 1-second-headway limit of 3,000 vehicles per hour assuming 85% fill factor, they'd need only 30 stalls. For reference, the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop stations have 18 stalls IIRC. 30 stalls is just two rows of 15 parking spaces. To support potentially tens of thousands of passengers per hour. Wow.
Truck Road Damage
TBC is also looking at making long distance freight tunnels big enough to ship two trains of shipping containers side by side. I think this will be the cheapest and most reliable shipping in history. For road degradation, my understanding is that the problems caused by heavy trucks are most because of soil settlement. When the roadway is sitting on thick concrete which itself is sitting on solid bedrock, I believe this problem disappears.
Other Important Advantages to Underground Shipping:
> Weather does not delay logistics, nor wear out the road from thermal cycling and UV radiation
> Rolling resistance is lower than trucks on rough surface pavement
> Keeping the airflow contained in a smooth cylinder can majorly improve aerodynamic efficiency
> No hills, no starting and stopping
> Can go 100 mph or maybe more
> Possibly can traverse lakes/seas/oceans (I need to research this claim more though, but long underwater tunnels such and the English Chunnel already exist)
I did an interview with Warren Redlich in May about the Boring Company in which I discuss this stuff in much more detail.
Disclaimer: I do not own stock in TBC but desperately want to!!!
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If truck actually paid their share of the road damage, most freight would go by rail, unless the tunnel becomes the new rail.Lots of great stuff in your larger post. I wanted to add one idea that I haven't seen articulated in most of the autonomous vehicle business models. There is a natural back pressure to more and more miles being moved over to autonomous vehicles.
I fully agree with the idea that as those miles get cheaper, there will be a non-linear increase in the consumption of those miles. The back pressure comes from the fact that our highways don't have unlimited capacity to support that increase in usage. There is the potential for improvement in traffic levels via autonomous vehicles doing a better job of moving at the same speed and thus the opportunity to maximize throughput. I'm not a flow control analyst, so I have no idea of how big of an improvement that can make.
The really big issue I see here are autonomous semis, with the possibility that cost/mile will fall to bulk transport levels via rail (or even cheaper). Society is providing a gargantuan subsidy to the trucking industry today in the form of a virtually free road network for the benefit of that trucking industry. The good, simplistic, estimate for the cost of road maintenance is time plus the 4th power of axle weight. Big light duty vehicles will have axle weights around 3k pounds, while the standard 18 wheeler has 5 axles (1 steering axle, 2 drive axles, and 2 trailer axles). Distributing 80k pounds over 5 axles is 16k pounds, 5x weight/axle at the 4th power means that semi is doing 5^4 = 625x the road damage.
Semi trucks do pay a lot in fuel taxes - it is probably closer to 5x (6 mpg vs 30 mpg) than 625x.
(Ever wonder about those axles being lifted and lowered on dump trucks or concrete trucks? Now you know)
One study I've read specifically resolved this down to a formula where road dmg / maintenance cost was a function of time and axle weight. Yet everybody paying fuel taxes, and taxes that get devoted to the road network, are paying for that trucking industry subsidy.
We do benefit from free shipping on orders of $25 and over though!
The rail network doesn't get a comparable societal subsidy - putting the railroads out of business via a road network subsidy is a bad idea (net cost to society).
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