Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Rivian/Lucid will sell every truck/car they make, and good for them, and good for the overall Misssion. FSD Beta button is still a long way from wide release of FSD to all Tesla owners in all Countries who bought/subcribe to FSD, and even then we still need vast improvements to get to Level 5 (Full Automation) automomy. Elon has stated roll out will be slowly with safety paramount. Not sure why you singled out Rivian and Lucid and not OEM which are more applicable with their ICE hacks.

Right now, everyone who makes a good quality EV is going to sell every unit they make. If you see any EV maker with stock it's likely because the car kind of sucks or it's overpriced.

Have any R1-T actually been delivered to customers yet? I saw them allegedly rolling off a ‘production line’.

One. They've delivered one for certain.

I've seen a semi loaded with a couple that might have been headed for customers, but it's hard to say for sure. The Rivian forum doesn't have any happy owners bragging about their new truck so they are clearly not delivering a lot of them.

 

[WolfHero]

Pension fund for Province of Quebec-Canada (Canadian $390B, all figures are Canadian dollars) announced to divest all assets that produce crude oil products by end of next year.
According to regulatory filings, as of the end of June 2021, the fund owned sizeable stakes in a number of oil companies including:

• $661 million in French oil giant Total
• $397 million worth of oilsands company Canadian Natural Resources
• $359 million in Calgary-based Suncor
• $110 million in Russia's Lukoil
• $65 million in BP
• $61 million in Shell.

The fund also says it will move its oil money to other investments, with a view to buying up $54 billion in "green assets" by 2025.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/caisse-climate-change-1.6191982

 

[MC3OZ]

lol, no

Unless the US goes through some serious double digit inflation, I doubt that very much.

Those projections would put market cap at almost half of the projected American GDP in 2030…

I can see 3-4 trillion by the early 2030s, with $500-600b in revenue and perhaps $100b in profit.

I haven't watched the video so I can't comment on SMRs predictions, but I would be wary about assumptions around GDP growth.

From Tony Seba video we have the following predictions:-

• Energy - cheap and abundant
• Transport - cheap and abundant
• Food - cheaper and more abundant

Then from innovations like optical fibre, 5G and Starlink

• Telecommunications cheap and abundant
• Knowledge more widely accessible
• Innovation like to accelerate.

Assuming the Tesla AI humanoid bot works, labour is also becoming cheaper and more abundant..

WIth cheap labour, increasing innovation, automation and recycling, raw materials might become cheaper and more abundant, except for things that are genuinely rare and impossible to recycle/replace - with modern technology and innovation - that list is shrinking.

Finally if the list above tiggers a deflationary boom, the circulation rate of money increases, which grows the money supply, making finance cheaper and more abundant.

In fact is is harder to see the case for a credit crunch with rising interest rates, unless speculation drives asset values to crazy numbers.

Inflation is still possible for something that is high quality, unique, and hard to replicate. Increasing share prices are likely for companies that continue to grow and become more profitable,

If SMR is right, it will be because of the wider macro issues, with the factors above expanding the size of the economy faster than many currently expect.

The counterweight is we will see considerable asset value destruction in Fossil Fuel industries, and that will impact the retirement assets and incomes of a large portion of the population. Unfortunately, we will probably see value destruction happen too fast for deflation to make them better off overall.
But with an expanding economy, there will be many newly wealthy citizens, who could purchase real estate from those with insufficient investment income..

As you can tell, I'm partially guessing, economic change on this likely scale has never happened before, there is very little media commentary around this, because I don't think many mainstream experts believe Tony's predictions

 

[StealthP3D]

Remember the steel plant for Ct isnt even finished. Yes they could get steel from elsewhere but..

Tesla Cybertruck steel supplier’s $1.7-billion TX facility is coming to form

It appears that the pieces are starting to come together for the Tesla Cybertruck. Apart from the rapid development of Gigafactory Texas, Steel Dynamics, Tesla’s supplier for the steel that would be used in the vehicle, is also making some great progress in its Sinton, TX mill. Aerial video of...

www.teslarati.com

SpaceX has a ready supply of cold rolled 30X stainless steel without the new Texas steel plant running so I wouldn't base speculation on that. Besides, it wouldn't surprise me to see the steel plant turning out product before Q3 2022.

In any case, there is too much irresponsible speculation stated as fact based on nothing more than rumors and innuendo (as if you know there won't be any Cybertrucks in customer hands before Q3 2022). Given what we know, and what Tesla has said, it's possible we could see the first Cybertruck deliveries in Q1 or Q2 or not until Q3 or Q4. We have very little visibility into battery and truck production issues beyond what Tesla has told us.

 

[RobDickinson]

SpaceX has a ready supply of cold rolled 30X stainless steel without the new Texas steel plant running so I wouldn't base speculation on that. Besides, it wouldn't surprise me to see the steel plant turning out product before Q3 2022.

In any case, there is too much irresponsible speculation stated as fact based on nothing more than rumors and innuendo (as if you know there won't be any Cybertrucks in customer hands before Q3 2022). Given what we know, and what Tesla has said, it's possible we could see the first Cybertruck deliveries in Q1 or Q2 or not until Q3 or Q4. We have very little visibility into battery and truck production issues beyond what Tesla has told us.

yes they could get steel elsewhere.|

But even Elon has said, at least twice, that the CT wont be in production until Q3 2022. Thats not speculation.

 

[Gigapress]

As you can tell, I'm partially guessing, economic change on this likely scale has never happened before, there is very little media commentary around this, because I don't think many mainstream experts believe Tony's predictions

Closest thing I can think of is the dawn of the 2nd industrial revolution around 1900-1920.

 

[mltv]

Both Tesla and NIO has a near death experience before they find success. Lucid and Rivian has to go thru their own hell and back before they can be consider a success. The new EV coming after Tesla has a lot of advantages, lesson learned from Tesla, and better funding. But they are facing a lot more competition. Their fight for survival is not done to be consider beating F & GM. To me for a pickup CT and F150 Lightning has a lot more chance to succeed than Rivian. CT for being a Tesla, and F150 for being an F150. There's already tons of ad-on for F150 that existing owner can just move their ad-on to the new truck without having to get an alternative.

 

[StealthP3D]

I absolutely expect rivian to do fine selling trucks an the R1S along side the Cybertruck.

Its a different market and not everyone likes the CT for some reason!

It's not the selling of the Rivian that's a problem (it looks to be a very nice little ute if you don't mind that it's just as fragile as all the ICE trucks out there), it's the selling it at a profit that's going to be problematic. I wouldn't mind one myself if I thought the company was going to be around. But the Cybertruck will be better for what I need it for and it looks like I'll be able to get it sooner as well. Oh, and Supercharger network, hardened steel and glass and FSD.

With EV trucks the problem is not demand, it's price and availability. Sure, if they could sell them like hotcakes at $100K+ a pop they would have a nice business. but that's not the reality of the situation. It surprises me how many people don't understand that the announced price is not necessarily the price they need to make a profit, it's the price at which they figure they can sell them in some volume and keep investors interested enough to keep funding them. Even Tesla did this but it's not 2012 anymore and Rivian is not the only EV maker to chose from (as an investor or a customer).

 

[RobDickinson]

Oh there is questions on Rivian for sure, can they make these in quantity, and with a margin?

TBH I am sure they can but lets see if they do. They also have 100,000+ Amazon vans to make.

 

[ZeApelido]

So I guess Musk is at some conference, being questioned by Kara Swisher.

Some fun ones:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442971038908833792

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442979518742884358

 

[Artful Dodger]

Disclaimer Disclosure : I do not own stock in TBC

FTFY. You don't need to disclaim that which you have not done...

Cheers!

 

[Paul_SF]

So I guess Musk is at some conference, being questioned by Kara Swisher.

Some fun ones:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442971038908833792

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442979518742884358

Can’t wait for the clip to be posted! It seems like it was a really good one from Kara S. Right on time!

 

[RobDickinson]

Reminder you need to agree an NDA to be a passenger in a Waymo cab

Waymo starts offering autonomous rides in San Francisco

Only to a small group of “Trusted Testers” for now, though.

www.theverge.com

 

[deshkart]

Elon Musk, live at the Code Conference

Will we talk about living in a simulation again?

www.theverge.com

Notes from Kara Musk discussions.

Elon - TSLA is high!

Also Musk - FSD is most valuable asset ever developed by humans

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ok, today Tesla Norway broke their quarterly record which was from Q1 2019 when the model 3 was introduced in Europe.

That previous Norwegian quarterly record was 7,180 (or thereabouts) cars. With seven six five four three weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391 7.318, This is 1,192 948 787 332 behind 138 past the previous record. Todays sales were 303 239 162 457 166 Sunday + 302 today.

Now there are two more milestones that can be reached this month. Best month ever is March 2019 with 5,828 compared to this months 5,228. So 600 behind with three days to go.

If they get there, it is only another 82 needed to get to 8,000 for the quarter. If they have enough cars in the country it seems to be possible.

So with the quarterly record broken it's time for the monthly to be upgraded. They didn't quite get there today but there's a good chance tomorrow.

Best month ever is still March 2019 with 5,828 compared to this months 5,228 5,560. So 600 268 behind with three two days to go. Today was 302 331

The quarterly record is now 7,650. This is roughly 106,5% of the previous record. With two days to go.

By the way Volkswagen at number #2 is at 3,262. They only need to sell about 4,800 cars or so in two days to catch up.

 

[Mike Smith]

Elon Musk, live at the Code Conference

Will we talk about living in a simulation again?

www.theverge.com

Tesla related Elon comments:

-not especially worried about U.S./China relations right now.
-We've got a big factory in China, which is doing very well.
-I dunno. People don't seem to listen to ... I don't know why there's an NDA, we probably don't need it. (FSD NDA)
-Humanoid robots were "going to happen with or without Tesla," so he figured he should get into the game.
-About the Yoke steering yoke: "it's like something different, and people sometimes don't like the different thing."
-"The reality of doing the right thing matters more than the perception of doing the right thing," he says about pursuing Full Self Driving.
-Elon on accidents and deaths due to self-driving: "The 10% that do die with autonomy are still going to sue you. The 90% that are still living aren't even going to know it's the reason they're alive."

 

[Carl Raymond]

Also Musk - FSD is most valuable asset ever developed by humans

I wonder if that was off the cuff. He’s placing FSD above roads, internet, phone lines, any vaccine, sewer networks, the power grid, the electric motor, software compilers…. big claim.

edit: if it’s a stepping stone to AGI, then fair call, hopefully.

 

[Unpilot]

So I am on a long Rd trip....got notified that A software update is available (THE BUTTON!) Of course, I downloaded it, but won't be able to play with it till November! The horror!

This almost makes me want to run back home and get in my car and drive very carefully.

But I am having too much fun hiking...and drinking beer.

How this related to the SP.....well all the worry about "rotations" and part's shortages....fall away with these views.


So don't fret about small changes in SP .....great things are on the horizon.
HODL.

 

[AudubonB]

Pension fund for Province of Quebec-Canada (Canadian $390B, all figures are Canadian dollars) announced to divest all assets that produce crude oil products by end of next year.
According to regulatory filings, as of the end of June 2021, the fund owned sizeable stakes in a number of oil companies including:

• $661 million in French oil giant Total
• $397 million worth of oilsands company Canadian Natural Resources
• $359 million in Calgary-based Suncor
• $110 million in Russia's Lukoil
• $65 million in BP
• $61 million in Shell.

The fund also says it will move its oil money to other investments, with a view to buying up $54 billion in "green assets" by 2025.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/caisse-climate-change-1.6191982

Were those the largest in its portfolio? I ask because those are minuscule amounts. $661MM is 0.17% of the fund's size, so less than peanuts.
Refining this somewhat, I strongly suspect the equity portion of such a pension fund's assets is itself a fairly small fraction of the $390B. But in the unlikely event that it were only ten percent of the total, that still makes the Total position 1.7% - not much at all.

 

[kbM3]

if that is the case Tesla would have been forced to split In a Tesla Cars, Tesla Energy, Tesla Batteries etc. Market cap of 16 trillion is ridiculous for one company that is about the same as the current GDP of China!

Market cap comparison to GDP is disingenuous.

Market Cap is the projected present value of decades of future cash flows.

GDP is an annual measurement.