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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Macros:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD​
14,715.00 -46.75 (-0.32%)
As of 12:35AM EDT. Oct 4, 2021​
Market open.​
It’s this guy again
 
Alex Voigt has this very interesting bit of info:

According to a credible source with access to VW's order book, about 70-80% of weak deliveries are due to demand constraints and not semiconductor shortages (supply constraints) This is likely the case with other automakers too More about this topic later

Not that we couldn't guess this, but it's nice to have confirmation.

Who woulda' thunk? 🤪

Actually, I got quite a bit of push-back right here when I suggested big auto was using chip shortages as an excuse to limit production and increase ASP's while covering up a lack of demand. When word gets out that people are not buying ICE because EV is the new thing, well, it's going to cause ICE sales to collapse even quicker. Big auto will continue to pretend there is not a demand problem for ICE vehicles until it's so obvious they are starting to look foolish to the average Joe.

A few very vocal people treated this theory like it was a whacky conspiracy theory. Did I really think this whole chip shortage was a huge conspiracy? No, the chip shortage was real but that doesn't mean the big OEMs won't hide behind it. Of course we still don't have absolute confirmation yet but it's been looking like that for some time and that look just got stronger.
 
The first 10 minutes set up big BS flags for me on his video, i.e. the forced correlation with innovation speed vs size. But then later on with all the detail that I don't know to judge well, I wasn't sure any more. Anybody with deeper understanding that could tell us if this is real or as bogus as the beginning?

He's certainly using Tesla to sell himself but I think it's pretty obvious he's familiar with how Tesla functions (on some levels) and offers significant color into the internal workings of Tesla that most people have no idea about. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if someone like Elon said he was getting some of it wrong but it's the gist of it that matters. People think the OEMs can catch up to Tesla but they can't. This helps provide color as to how Tesla does things differently (even if some of the details turn out to be wrong).

Combined with the excellent P&D numbers relative to the rest, this is a significant tailwind for TSLA stock. It's one more thing that causes people to push the buy button. I can feel the rumble beginning. Is TSLA going to get rowdy? I think it will take some serious headwinds to prevent it at this point.
 
So disappointed.

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Strong volume already in the early Pre-market: 100K at 5:50 ET

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​


This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 04, 2021 05:50 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$789.63 +14.41 (+1.86%)
Pre-Market Volume100,080
Pre-Market High$792.25 (05:50:18 AM)
Pre-Market Low$783.66 (04:05:29 AM)

Macros still down, but stabilizing from earlier lows:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
14,708.25 -53.50 (-0.36%)
As of 5:43AM EDT. Market open.​
 
Premarket at this time is like watching paint dry. Barely any volume. ~100k in 2 hours.


Edit: To dodgers post above, 100k may be high for a regular day, but that's peanuts after the massive new info we got over the weekend. Need to get more volume to see where the real price is.

TSLA volume is 2-3x typical level for this time of day. Sets the trend. If total Pre-market volume is 500K+ that's a strong runup into the Opening.

TSLA is also bucking bond rates:

U.S. 10 Year Treasury US10Y:​
RT Quote | Exchange​
Yield | 6:01 AM EDT​
1.491% ↑+0.024
 
Listening to Joe Justice's videos, I have now also developed more confidence the culture and MO of Elon's "cybernetic collective" companies will last long after he leaves (or dies or is completely incapacitated, in his words).

Apparently, nearly all teams at Tesla form ad hoc by people self-selecting with whom to work on a particular problem. The entire organization of over 10,000 employees is more of an heavily interconnected small society of equals spontaneously optimizing their own tiny, well-defined slice of the mission. The social network at the company more closely resembles a densely connected graph than a tree. Everything is organized according to highly visible public interfaces, like APIs. This is basically a mix of object-oriented and functional programming of software to manipulate atoms. Hence why "errors in the product reflect errors in the organizational structure."

With clearly designed inputs and outputs, everyone in the company can see what everyone else in the company is doing. All data is openly readable by anyone in the company, which Joe J calls "radical transparency" as opposed to information hiding. This transparency, plus the continual churn between teams builds a wide web of trusting relationships between employees while also making it much easier to question the constraints on one's own input/output definition imposed by other teams.

Each 4-7 person team basically consists of representatives with all necessary skills for that task, plus some kind of robot, automatic test procedure, and usually some machine learning model and traditional software automation accelerating design.

It is clear to me that this kind of culture will long outlast the current leadership team. It's a cult, and not the kind that ends with the death of the founder. It's essentially a new religion rooted in radical rationality like this: The Methods of Rationality - LessWrong.

And here's the craziest part. Elon is essentially using his companies as ongoing experiments in social structure based on spontaneous self-governance, extreme personal freedom and responsibility, normalized altruism and issue-based direct democracy for the Mars colony.

Moral of the story: "How much can we do in parallel?"
@Gigapress, I agree with your comments, except the entire Tesla organization employee number. Tesla ended 2020 with 70,757 employees which was a 47% increase of total ended 2019. With this rate of expansion, the additional hirings this year for GF Berlin, GF Austin, etc (many made light from TMC) I would expect that total employees today would be at least 100,000 and growing.

 
Q1 P&D released April 2 (Good Friday, markets were closed)- stock had closed Thursday at $661.75. Next trading day it opened up quite a bit ($707.71), intraday high only just above that ($708.16), intraday low at $684.70, and closed at $691.05, almost $30 up from pre-P&D.



Q2 P&D released July 2 after closing that day at $678.90. Next trading day it opened up slightly ($681.71), intraday high of $684, intraday low of $651.40-- and closed overall down almost $20 ($659.58) from before P&D.



So Q1, big pop for open, close was still up a fair bit.

Q2 tiny bump at open, close was down a fair bit.
I'm missing your point.

I made that post based on my memory feel. Your post prompted me to look at the chart. The Q1 earnings beat led to a downright smack down on the share price.
 
I heard the argument for zombie car companies, never profitable but being kept alive by governments... Imo these people don’t understand how much customers will prefer Tesla over a subsidized car.

It’s not like Japan could have paid Motorola $100/phone and Motorola would outsell iPhone or Android. They had a much worse ecosystem and a culture that didn’t innovate fast enough.

It’s not like VW will outcompete Tesla if they don’t have to pay German taxes or they get new a bailout every year. Disruption is coming, already Teslas are much better and cheaper to produce, with scale comes even better FSD and even cheaper to produce.

I think Japan could slap a giant tariff on imported cars, to preserve the home market for native OEMs. If the cheapest Tesla was +$20k that would definitely make it less attractive than a Honda to many buyers. Perhaps a large subsidy for local OEMs if a tariff doesn’t work. I don’t see how a market the size of Japan could save a company the size of Toyota, though.

Germany — or perhaps Europe — could do the same, except Giga Berlin will be local now. Already we’ve seen it qualify for European battery subsidies. So brilliant to put the factory there, onerous construction regulations or no! And Shanghai for the China market. Tesla has their foot in the best doors to keep local tariffs and subsidies from crippling them.

I don’t know how a country could realistically subsidize exports by its home OEMs to overcome import tariffs elsewhere… doesn’t India have like +80% on imported cars? Japan, Germany, or the US couldn’t give an 80% cost of car subsidy to exports to India. I just don’t think government protectionism can save a company the size of Toyota or VW if their products can’t compete — the home markets just aren’t big enough and you can’t adequately protect exports.

I do wonder if Ford, GM, or Ram could survive being just-a-pickup-and-SUV manufacturer for North America only. Like Lincoln and their total fleet of 4 SUVs. Smaller but still profitable for many years… I think vans and suburbans will be the last EVs to get long range, decent charging times, and low prices due to the size, weight, and aerodynamics leading to massive battery requirements.