Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Yup he's at $2 EPS I think. I'm a bit higher though because I think ASP will be higher than he's forecasting and I also don't think cost of goods went up that much compared to price hikes. So I'm at about $2.12-$2.20, depending on some factors. I'm also expecting EV credits to return to about 450 million for Q3.

One of the big unknown's is the rumored 300-400 million payout Tesla got from Chinese credits.

I hope that those carbon credits are the reason Tesla repaid it's $1.4 China loan 3 years early, and I futher hope that Tesla claims $30-40M in "Goodwill" assets on their Balance Sheet.

I think half of Model Y's Sept sales being SR is easily offset by the number of Model Y LR's sent over to Europe

I agree that a 50/50 split between Model Y SR+ vs. LR is a good estimate. Logistically, it's the easiest way to bring up the 2nd Model Y assembly line with an entirely new LFP bty pack supplied by CATL. The existing line continues to make the LR exclusively, now with all LG cells so need more from that Supplier too.

 

[SN_8]

Maybe the meeting opens tomorrow night with 100+ Model Y's driving out of a factory door in formation a la synchronized swimming. Elon pops up on stage, "yes, we're shipping Model Y's all across America tomorrow!"

It's so refreshing that we're not setting ourselves up for disappointment with high expectations this time.

 

[Ogre]

The way to prevent waiting lists of 1 year of the soon to be the quickest selling vehicle on the planet is to increase price.

Take as much money as you can from the impatient, then work your way down the list.

Ramp up production and worry about satisfying the less price sensitive customers when you catch up with demand.

 

[Ogre]

It's so refreshing that we're not setting ourselves up for disappointment with high expectations this time.

We're tempering our expectations... my first thought was maybe it would be Tesla robots juggling bowling pins on top of row-after-row of Cybertruck.

 

[elasalle]

Anyone care to share their thoughts about tomorrow? I wonder if anything exciting will be announced…

EM gonna speak with a posh English accent

 

[MC3OZ]

... because their Broker doesn't tell them. Learn the difference between a Beneficial Shareholder (retail customer) and a Shareholder of Record (large institutions, registered with Share Agent).

Did you not notice the dozen folks here in Sep 2020 who were told by their Broker's that 'their shares haven't been delivered by the Agent? so you we can't deliver and you can't sell? Yeah, that was a lie, those Borkers were caught naked short. Its rampant abuse and that's why the SP went up 90% in 3 weeks.

Everything else is b.s.

Here is an example of a more professional set up...

What is CHESS?

CHESS stands for Clearing House Electronic Subregister System and is the computer system used by the ASX to manage the settlement of share transactions and to record shareholdings.

www.westpac.com.au

Before being able to register ownership of shares on CHESS an investor first needs a Holder Identification Number (HIN). In order to be issued with a HIN an investor will need an authorised participant (usually a broker, such as Westpac Share Trading) to sponsor them.

Maybe time for another share split, it was fun last time,.,,

 

[RobDickinson]

High expectations would be dozens of Semi, all the referral Roadsters and a reveal of the model Q...

 

[PeterJA]

When the day comes that the credit rating for Tesla becomes investment grade, will this have any impact on way margin ratios are applied? In other words, might an investor have a little more margin available should they be holding essentially only Tesla shares?

Asking for a friend...

Excellent question. Many people, including broker employees who set margin requirements, still have no clue about Tesla.

The Schwab Equity Rating® for TSLA is F: Strongly Underperfom: Sell (immediately you fool). Last month, it got all the way up to D, but alas has retreated again. This august (and August) opinion is based on the following Rationale Behind Our Rating (not ®):

Growth Grade: C​

Quality Grade: F​

Sentiment Grade: C​

Stability Grade: D​

Valuation Grade: F​

The Quality and Sentiment Grades are labeled as most important to the overall grade. Here is Schwab's description of the former (emphasis added):

The Quality component underlying the rating is based on a number of operating performance measures derived from recent financial statement data. Stocks with attributes such as high profitability, high earnings quality, conservative investment spending and better operating efficiency tend to have better Quality scores. Highly-rated stocks within this category may have the potential for price appreciation, as investors perceive that these companies have the financial strength to potentially grow earnings faster than their peers.​

Oh Schwab. Speaking of peers, here are some Schwab Equity Rating®s for them:

GM and Ford: D​

Okay, that's the ballpark, but better than Tesla?

Toyota and Honda: B​

Daimler: A​

Oh Schwab.

In short, yes I have to believe reality will someday filter down to the brokerages... or else their customers who trust them will stampede to ARK.

 

[RobDickinson]

Daimler is splitting in two (at a massive cost) and lining itself up to be bought out..

 

[CHGolferJim]

We're tempering our expectations... my first thought was maybe it would be Tesla robots juggling bowling pins on top of row-after-row of Cybertruck.

Even better!!!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Daimler is splitting in two (at a massive cost) and lining itself up to be bought out..

Vs. Volvo's split setting up for an IPO..........lots of foment in coming years.

 

[Cattledog]

Oh Schwab.

In short, yes I have to believe reality will someday filter down to the brokerages... or else their customers who trust them will stampede to ARK.

About 60B of them have...

 

[Ogre]

Daimler is splitting in two (at a massive cost) and lining itself up to be bought out..

Vs. Volvo's split setting up for an IPO..........lots of foment in coming years.

Companies lining up winning and losing sides of their businesses. Sell off or divest the ICE assets now so their EV businesses look like huge winners.

 

[redan]

Gene Munster with bullish comments (and still underestimates TLSA):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445868712926629888

 

[kbeckley]

The EV society up here in Canada has done a good job of hosting pertinent seminars on all things EV. Last night's was titled 'Have EVs reached a Global inflection point?'. It was present by Corey Cantor of BloombergNEF. Worth a watch. I found his estimations to be too much conservative - the transition will be faster IMO. For instance he has new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) sales in North America at 70% market share in 2040 (!) - 5 years after they are banned in many jurisdictions and a full 16 years after the drive train (BEV vs ICE) reaches cost parity (2024). That makes no sense to me. Tesla comes across looking good but too much 'business as usual' thinking here. People are paying for Bloomberg's reports (I assume) so nice to know what they are being influenced by.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gene Munster with bullish comments (and still underestimates TLSA):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445868712926629888

Gene is the only analyst I know that is genuinely bullish and clueless at the same time

 

[redan]

@TeslaHistorian is a great follow on Twitter. Here's a classic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445880246880792581

 

[RobDickinson]

This is a good vid on the gigacastings and potential cost and weight savings. Frankly I think its as much to do with minimising robots and production cost/speed than the vehicle itself.

 

[ninpb]

It's so refreshing that we're not setting ourselves up for disappointment with high expectations this time.

Every Tesla presentation, I leave room for this as a possibility from Elon.

 

[Boomer19]

I took a screenshot on my broker's website (a Canadian Chartered bank) at 8:12 p.m ET on Fri, Aug 28, 2020 which shows the increased share balance due to the split, but not yet with the adjusted SP. I emailed this SS to a friend in case I ever need evidence in court (2x offsite backups).

Telsa CONFIRMED the timing of the share distribution in their SEC filing on Sep 1st, 2020. Here is my Tue, Sep 01, 2020 comment: (in reply to your comment on that day)



Again, Tesla's statement filed with the SEC was that "The Stock Dividend was distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020, and trading began on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 31, 2020." which is in disagreement to what you wrote on Sep 01, 2020 (and to the positions you still seem to hold).

Shares weren't distributed on Thu, Sep 3rd, or whatevers depending on the Broker or some archane clearing-house shell-game, or some media commentator would have you believe. Sep 3rd DOES happen match the 2-day clearing rule for shares purchased on Sep 1st (hmm...)

Telsa stated FULL OUT that The Stock Dividend was distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020. I saw that in my account. It would be a felony for Tesla to file a false statement to the SEC. We can take the Aug 28 timing for share distribution as FACT unless proven false in Court.

That's when all beneficial owners received their dividend shares. Any broker that did not receive enough shares did so because they didn't OWN enough shares according to the records with Tesla's share agent. And yes, those same Brokers had 3 WEEKS to correct any accounting errors (Tesla announced the share dividend on Aug 13). This wasn't an accounting error, it was because those Brokers were short shares, and couldn't poof them into existence as they usually do.

Any retail investor who didn't have their TSLA dividend shares by the Open on Monday morning, August 31 was cheated. Numerous investors here (I have bookmarks) didn't receive their additional shares until TSLA had dropped from $535 pre-Market to as low as $372 during Friday's session.

That's grounds for a lawsuit against the Broker. The fact that Wall St. rules are arranged to make it nearly impossible to collect evidence of financial crime should in fact prove motive and opportunity in Court. Instead, they are given cover and endless handwaving. It's been 13 mths.

#SEC

sounds your broker handled it well. it’s clear what we all saw in our accounts, and when, varied. it’s correct you’re entitled to split as of close on 28th, as the ex date was monday 31st. meaning anything you traded tesla on monday 8/31 was ex-split or ex-dividend.

like i said earlier, different brokers credited their customers at different times, but i can assure you that dtcc didn’t allocate the split proceeds until wednesday 9/2.

technically, (sorry for the boring upcoming stuff) the correct thing to do would be to credit and debit long/short holders a trade date split allocation on 8/31, and those shares wouldn’t settle until 9/2, T+2, following regular settlement cycle. this still allows dtcc to capture all settled participant positions on record date, ex+1 like they do now, and holders can trade the post split position, but they shouldn’t be able to lend or transfer out what they don’t yet have, as they have not yet settled.

the reason for the clearing house shell game is because dtcc operates off of settled positions. they don’t know the trade date positions of any of their participants (nscc kinda knows though, to the extent the days trades were reported to the tape).
the true record date when using settled position is 9/1. they allocate corporate actions dividend proceeds (divs, splits, spinoffs) based upon what the participants settled position is on ex+1 (which is the same final trading position your broker should know at end of trading on ex-1).

and i know the record date in the filing was prior to ex date - i don’t remember the date - but that’s not the electronic record date which includes the “due bill” period, and old school pre-electronic accounting where brokers actually sent around a “due bill” to account for the trades that took place in between the official ‘record date’ and the ex-date.

The Stock Dividend was distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020.
don’t get too literal with the language in the filing. i understand why it’s easy, and they all say the same thing, but that’s just not how it works. there’s a difference between trade date and settle date. technically it was distributed to you and i. lucky us. but it isn’t technically settled in our account until the issuer releases them to the depository.

do you think that pre-electronic days that people had their new share certificates in their hands by ex-1 close of business or even ex-date…not a chance. it’s sad in 2021 that its still not the case.

anyhow…again we’re back to “this is how it works” versus “why does it work this way?”.

and hock is right, all this nonsense and 100yr old thinking is in desperate need of a real time settlement overhaul, whether blockchain or the next big thing.