Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

After you've heard the same arguments for eight or nine years, it gets really tiresome. Those arguments hold even less water now then they did nine years ago.

Well, not to mention that "it will go down by 50% for reasons" isn't really a compelling argument.

 

[elasalle]

I don't know about you guys but I'm enjoying the entertainment from our new Nostradamus................meanwhile in Tesla land

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455581376674160644

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455602268389232643

 

[Pezpunk]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount. Hertz announced its initial order of 100,000 Teslas, perhaps more, between now and the end of next year. They are already taking deliveries and trumpeting their availability as rentals through Tom Brady ads. Hertz apparently orders Teslas in the same manner as any customer, just in greater numbers. That would also likely be the case for Avis, which gave a subtle hint in its conference call.

Elon’s tweet appears to have been an attempt to remind folks that Tesla does not offer discounts, even to Hertz, while also emphasizing production constraints. Perhaps his understated manner of tweeting was to imply he is not a stock pumper, while he receives criticism of his wealth from CNN and the World Food Program, and Congress is deliberating laws regarding climate change and EV tax credits.

the contract might be about timing rather than price. Time is money. Negotiating one is the same as negotiating the other. Hertz might not be able to get a discount price-wise, but they might be able to jump the line.

Anyone (such as ME) who has been waiting almost 14 months for their Plaid while watching others who paid more but ordered mere weeks ago taking delivery understands this all too well. : |

 

[elasalle]

100K+ paper losses on Jan 23 2225 sold CCs, even as the SP tanks

I want my money back, money back, money back ....

IV mischief.

 

[berryja]

the contract might be about timing rather than price. Time is money. Negotiating one is the same as negotiating the other. Hertz might not be able to get a discount price-wise, but they might be able to jump the line.

Anyone (such as ME) who has been waiting almost 14 months for their Plaid while watching others who paid more but ordered mere weeks ago taking delivery understands this all too well. : |

14 months for me too! My delivery day for my Plaid is the 12th of this month finally!!

 

[Speedr117]

Let n be the number of shares that Elon has options to buy. (n=22,862,050 expiring soon)
Let p be the stock price when he exercises these options. Yet unknown
Let t be the tax rate that Elon must pay on the gains. t ~ 0.53 federal + CA (Elon's estimate)
Let b be the strike price (b=$6.24 for options expiring soon).

Elon will need n[(p-b)t+b] dollars to pay for the shares and taxes. He would need to sell m of those n newly acquired shares to generate that cash.

m = n[t + b/(p-b)]

So the number of shares he must sell actually goes DOWN as the stock price increases, but just a little. It is nearly fixed about ~12.3 million shares.

I'm just going to bow to your knowledge and math prowess! Thank you for the info!!!

 

[berryja]

100K+ paper losses on Jan 23 2225 sold CCs, even as the SP tanks

I want my money back, money back, money back ....

IV mischief.

My 1/19/24 2225 CCs are tanking too, Im sure the IV will settle in a few days.

 

[canoemore]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455602268389232643

I wish I knew how long it will take to get those installed and running...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

100K+ paper losses on Jan 23 2225 sold CCs, even as the SP tanks

I want my money back, money back, money back ....

IV mischief.

It's probably because this dip is going to be bought up in a move higher.

I find it amusing that anyone thinks the rise starting last Monday was because of Hertz. It was a "catalyst", not the underlining reason. The stock barely moved on fundamentally game changing earnings. That's probably why despite the stock being up 25%, it's only down 3-4% instead of what most people were expecting....which was a selloff of 7-10% or more.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I wish I knew how long it will take to get those installed and running...

2 weeks maybe?

 

[lafrisbee]

Retails don’t move the stock. Even for past events including gme it’s funds v.s funds. Retails r nearly a trigger. I do believe the market is reevaluating tsla. Ppl r just caught in surprise that tsla still has so much energy built in at 1t. He is still like 15 years old although he has outgrown most adults. Hopefully the sp cools down a little bit. I believe musks options r structured that lower stock price translates to lower tax rate

Ok too many people have stated Musk wants the stock lower so he will pay less in taxes.
Do I have this wrong?
Musk is going to pay the same percentage no matter what. And he is literally going to pay it in stock. If he has to pay 2x because the stock has 2x'd then it is still going to be the same amount to him. It will be the same number of shares.

 

[Knightshade]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount.

I can think of lots of reasons a contract would be relevant even if vehicle price wasn't involved at all.

Service details, delivery details, software update details, tie-ins with the app that Elon has already discussed, Supercharging details since Hertz is going to have some kind of bill-through system, and a number of other items as might be relevant to someone purchasing a fleet of vehicles rather than a single vehicle.

No fleet discount needed on the car for any of those to be important things one or both sides would want in writing.

Also curious if there's gonna be anything in there on recurring revenue... premium connectivity for example.

 

[traxila]

Not siding with our new participant on this forum...but would like to point out that there is another thread where the entire thread is currently praying for a swift and dramatic pullback.

That may sound damning as it has some truth in it, but they are simply trying to ride the inevitable ups and downs. All believers in Tesla and TSLA long term. No one is talking about lack of demand or meme stock issues.

 

[Knightshade]

Ok too many people have stated Musk wants the stock lower so he will pay less in taxes.
Do I have this wrong?

Yes.

Someone (Hacer?) showed the math a page or three back.... because the basis cost of the options is so insanely low there's TECHNICALLY a difference from higher or lower stock price, but it's incredibly incredibly tiny as to be irrelevant.

He's essentially going to need to sell the same number of shares at $1000 or $2000 within a rounding error.

 

[Phobi]

Wow…he said the “T” word

They’re still pooched, but thanks for speaking up…

 

[lafrisbee]

Let n be the number of shares that Elon has options to buy. (n=22,862,050 expiring soon)
Let p be the stock price when he exercises these options. Yet unknown
Let t be the tax rate that Elon must pay on the gains. t ~ 0.53 federal + CA (Elon's estimate)
Let b be the strike price (b=$6.24 for options expiring soon).

Elon will need n[(p-b)t+b] dollars to pay for the shares and taxes. He would need to sell m of those n newly acquired shares to generate that cash.

m = n[t + b/(p-b)]

So the number of shares he must sell actually goes DOWN as the stock price increases, but just a little. It is nearly fixed about ~12.3 million shares.

Ok. so YOU explained what I have been thinking from a more knowledgeable position.

 

[lafrisbee]

Yes.

Someone (Hacer?) showed the math a page or three back.... because the basis cost of the options is so insanely low there's TECHNICALLY a difference from higher or lower stock price, but it's incredibly incredibly tiny as to be irrelevant.

He's essentially going to need to sell the same number of shares at $1000 or $2000 within a rounding error.

yep. I saw it and responded..unfortunately I responded to the original post because I thought someone would have done what Hacer did before I needed to put my .02 in.

 

[traxila]

My 1/19/24 2225 CCs are tanking too, Im sure the IV will settle in a few days.

Maybe because SP is showing incredible strength here. Having lost a couple of percentage points after the run we had is nothing.

Let’s see what the rest of the week brings….

 

[Singuy]

I hear you. I think TSLA's growth is outstanding.
What I don't agree on is that the general market understands this right now.



This is reasonable. I hope it falls to the 800-range.

Honestly this is the weirdest logic.

Accuses market for not understanding Tesla's growth as it becomes the few companies with a trillion dollar valuation. The reason for this is because institutional investors are being apes but deep down inside they think Tesla will never expand their revenue to justify current valuation. And you came to this conclusion because Tesla had a sell off of 2% after a 30+% run. That's about sums up all the conspiracy theories?

 

[wtlloyd]

I wish I knew how long it will take to get those installed and running...

2 weeks
(Oh...GMTA)