Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

Wow, we were still in the 800's when I wrote that post, barely over 2 weeks ago. There is no way I envisioned the stock price getting to 1200 in that short of time. So I think I'll move my trigger to 1400.

Then again, some of you may have thought that if I buy a Model S, especially a blue one with white interior and a stealth wrap, others would want to buy a Model S, thus increasing demand, production and/or margins, and consequently share price. If any of you bought stock in reliance upon my post, I might be obligated to place that order. None of you did that, did you?

One of the things that we do is wait until some equity or price average catches up. Without looking up current values, I recall that recently the 200 day moving average of TSLA was about $700. We get to feel comfortable making moves based upon that price. If we had some psychological hook based upon TSLA price of $1200, we feel better when that long term average would be $1200.

In other words, if we wanted 1M in assets to retire or buy a car, we would not do it the day that number was reached, but would do it when it had been 1m for a year or so. (There are 253 trading days in a year)

 

[Artful Dodger]

We do have an uncommon situation this week that is always confusing me: due to the one week difference in daylight saving time adjustment, we Europeans see one hour more trading after the closing bell in US. Interesting to watch Tradegate (Berlin) at this time.

Tradegate Exchange Tesla Inc.

1,054.40 Euro equals 1,221.01 United States Dollar

 

[NicoV]

I first labeled our new large shareholder as someone to watch with a cautious eye (my exact words were far stronger), and little has caused me to change my opinion.
That never-failing arbiter of Truth, the internet, pegged him as having a net worth of some $3 billion at the time he burst on the TSLA screen. That his company is worth $11 billion means little - first, what fraction is his and second, how much of its assets has he access to?
Unless he has utterly perfectly played the derivatives casino - and has he not admitted he messed up there? - then I strongly suspect he has indebted himself greatly.

It seems that he bought a lot of out-of-the-money calls, that became ITM due to the recent runup, and that he is using the profits on those calls to buy shares. I base this on his recent statement that he hopes to reach 8M shares by end of 2023: “My dream. Hopefully 8,888,888 shares by the end of 2023. But no promise, since I may not have enough resources to do so.”
The more the pool of HODLers grows, the higher the share price goes due to more competition for the remaining shares.

 

[jamaatta]

Tradegate Exchange Tesla Inc.

1,054.40 Euro equals 1,221.01 United States Dollar

And ~1062 Euro equals ~1230 USD.

 

[MABMAB]

what an interesting start to the pre premarket in the US...

 

[22522]

Stop loss alert!

If you want to hold your Tesla shares for whatever reason (emotional attachment?), price fluctuations during upcoming light trading days may exceed stop loss thresholds. Your stock will be sold based on your instruction.

 

[Phobi]

Elon didn’t mention any early launches did he?

 

[StealthP3D]

Something really wonderful is happening. Tesla sales are booming. And non-Tesla EV sales are also booming!

Among industry watchers (e.g. Autoline.tv), there was a lot of concern that traditional automakers were introducing too many EVs. This was based on the experience of overpriced short-range EVs like the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3. That people didn't want EVs besides Teslas. But what's actually happening is that all of the good EVs are selling well. The Porsche Taycan is selling well. European market EVs are selling well. The Ford Mach-E is doing well. GM's Cadillac Lyriq and Hummer have solid preorders. And products from startups like Lucid and Rivian look successful too, thought admittedly it's very early.

So the predictions of EV skeptics are not coming to pass. Instead, what's happening is what Elon Musk and us longtime Tesla bulls have always said: that Teslas compete with ICE not with other EVs. And non-Tesla EVs are going to take sales from ICE not from Tesla.

Across the board demand for good EVs is so strong that traditional automakers have shifted from a position of bemoaning government ZEV programs to egging them on.

I think Autoline.tv might start understanding this about 2026. They are a little slow.

 

[Mr X]

Nice pre-market. I have to learn to better contain my excitement. This past week has had me extra anxious

 

[elasalle]

Damn the boiling of beans with their own skin

For me - The beans are the stock, the skin is them pesky CCs very soon will need to be managed again — 1/3 gains capped by CCs yesterday

Uncle Powell and Leo created perfect conditions
Nov,Dec are usually great macro mths

10 year increasing to 1.58 and I think touched 1.6 - that might be the only headwind

+ very squeeze conditions. Just refreshed on the VW squeeze- seems price quadrupled and it lasted for 4 days after which it went down like 58%

 

[Causalien]

5 hrs ago:

KoGuan Leo on Twitter: "Tesla bulls, now I have 7,195,611 physical shares of Tesla, bought recently 184,000 more shares. Thus, 105,000 shares more to go by January 2022. Promise made, promise kept." / Twitter

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

 

[cusetownusa]

I don’t understand the reason to keep a much lower limit for sedans.

This would make the MYP cheaper than a more efficient M3P. For non-Tesla EVs it means the Rivian R1T, Cadillac Lyric, and Audi etron get the full credit, but sedans like the Polestar 2 or BMW i4 get excluded. It makes no sense to me.

Totally agree…You have to look at it from the point of view of who wrote this section of the bill, the UAW and big 3. They mostly only sell big SUVs and Trucks and are the only ones with American assembled Union vehicles. Makes perfect sense from that view…$$$ giving themselves as much of an advantage as possible.

 

[Surfer of Life]

What's even better is to lend them out, and then during a squeeze, ask for them back. Hmm

Can you just ask for them back any time? How fast must they comply?

In a margin account, does the broker have to give them back the instant you pay off your margin?

 

[22522]

Is dash design a marketing expense or an R&D expense?

Some believe that as vehicles become more autonomous the vehicles that win in the market will be the ones that provide the best entertainment venue. A part of that is the sound stage.

Here are pictures of personal preference best non Tesla dash (MB) vs Model 3

Which has more design expense as models permutate?
Which is a better sound stage?
Which would you have more success with if you were responsible for acoustic design?

When the patented slit air duct came out, I thought interesting in a technical way. Wondered if reliability would be improved with aging.

Just now am recognizing it as a huge signal to noise advantage as an entertainment stage.

This vent IP seems like a Tesla advantage during the transition to autonomous vehicles. A gap that will not be closed for 17 years - persistent gap on an important customer experience parameter.

It also reduces the design expense of new vehicles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla partner Panasonic tackles 4680 battery cell mass production

After presenting the new, potentially revolutionary batteries to the public last month, Panasonic is preparing to mass produce its 4680 cells next. The 4680 cells are pivotal to Tesla’s plans to become a legitimate mass manufacturer of quality electric vehicles. “In terms of product development...

www.teslarati.com

 

[MABMAB]

Stop loss alert!

If you want to hold your Tesla shares for whatever reason (emotional attachment?), price fluctuations during upcoming light trading days may exceed stop loss thresholds. Your stock will be sold based on your instruction.

Like at $1300?

 

[22522]

Like at $1300?

The people I know who use stop losses no longer own any TSLA. They are poorer because of it (at the moment).

Generally it is better for you to deliberately sell on your terms and your timing than let the manipulators choose the time and the price that you sell at.

A decision to not use stop losses makes you more of a deliberate investor rather than a price speculator.

 

[RobStark]

U.S. Democrats' plan boosts EV tax credit eligibility to pricier trucks, SUVs

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives released an updated social spending and climate measure on Wednesday that expands a proposed $12,500 tax credit to pricier zero-emission vehicles, while lowering income limits for eligible buyers.

www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. House Democrats released a revised bill on Wednesday here that expands a proposed tax credit of up to $12,500 for electric vehicles to slightly pricier vehicles, while lowering income limits for eligible buyers.

The bill revises pricing for vehicles eligible for the credit: vans, sport utility vehicles and trucks up to $80,000 are eligible, while sedans remain at $55,000 as they were under the prior version.

The earlier version capped credits at $64,000 for vans, $69,000 for SUVs and $74,000 for pickup trucks.

The new proposal limits the full EV tax credit for individual taxpayers reporting adjusted gross incomes of $250,000 or $500,000 for joint filers, down from $400,000 for individual filers and $800,000 for joint filers.

edit: doesn't seem to help Model Y (already under the cap) or Model X (still over the cap)

This will encourage Tesla fans to switch from Model S to Cybertruck.

This revision helps Rivian the most followed by the Detroit 3.

I guess Lucid will price their Gravity SUV starting at $79,990. And accelerate time to market.

This really helps further decimate the luxury sedan in the US in favor of huge trucks.

 

[Prunesquallor]

…

Here are pictures of personal preference best non Tesla dash (MB) vs Model 3

...

Sorry, can’t unsee it.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456186201489264642

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456163413420294144

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456171492266369027

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456141782354436096