Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla partner Panasonic tackles 4680 battery cell mass production

After presenting the new, potentially revolutionary batteries to the public last month, Panasonic is preparing to mass produce its 4680 cells next. The 4680 cells are pivotal to Tesla’s plans to become a legitimate mass manufacturer of quality electric vehicles. “In terms of product development...

www.teslarati.com

My take on this is that Panasonic will have two plants doing 4680, GF1 and Japan. The Japanese line may be for local companies such as Toyota, which would be very interesting, or even better Tesla Gigafactory Japan (but I find this highly unlikely).

 

[nativewolf]

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

Just cannot agree more. Either some idiot trolling or something else weird going on.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reforms he thinks are needed to keep up with the likes of Tesla by addressing thousands of workers at the German carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again​

Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reform needed to challenge Tesla (TSLA.O) for the electric vehicle throne when he addressed thousands of workers at the carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.
…
"Only as a team can we make Volkswagen future-proof," Diess told a staff meeting, also attended by works council boss Daniela Cavallo, Lower Saxony state premier Stephan Weil and Joerg Hofmann, the head of powerful trade union IG Metall.
…
"I'm being frequently asked why I keep comparing us with Tesla. I know this is annoying to some," Diess said.
…
His comments came after Cavallo criticised Diess for his communication style in recent weeks, which she said fuelled concerns among workers that the transformation will result in tens of thousands of job cuts.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder how long the upper bollinger band can act as support. I'm no TA expert, but I was not under the impression that this was how it was supposed to work.

T/A works best with low volume. High volume, the brakes are off.

 

[mongo]

U.S. Democrats' plan boosts EV tax credit eligibility to pricier trucks, SUVs

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives released an updated social spending and climate measure on Wednesday that expands a proposed $12,500 tax credit to pricier zero-emission vehicles, while lowering income limits for eligible buyers.

www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. House Democrats released a revised bill on Wednesday here that expands a proposed tax credit of up to $12,500 for electric vehicles to slightly pricier vehicles, while lowering income limits for eligible buyers.

The bill revises pricing for vehicles eligible for the credit: vans, sport utility vehicles and trucks up to $80,000 are eligible, while sedans remain at $55,000 as they were under the prior version.

The earlier version capped credits at $64,000 for vans, $69,000 for SUVs and $74,000 for pickup trucks.

The new proposal limits the full EV tax credit for individual taxpayers reporting adjusted gross incomes of $250,000 or $500,000 for joint filers, down from $400,000 for individual filers and $800,000 for joint filers.

edit: doesn't seem to help Model Y (already under the cap) or Model X (still over the cap)

Note on the income cap: per the most recent wording (may have been similar previously), one can use the Modified AGI of the current tax year or the previous year to qualify. There is also a one credit per taxpayer per year limit (I think that means two vehicles for those filing jointly). So high income individuals can drop their distributions/ gains for one year to get four qualifying cars. Also means one could qualify on 2022 based on this year's income if realized gains are held down.
Also gives flexibility for CT release date. Low income in 2022 covers 2022 and 2023.
Again, only the current wording.

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

Shrugg, Martin V. of Tesla IR confirmed his previous holdings.

 

[nativewolf]

It's clear that the recent runup is due to active institutional tracking funds being far underweight so they are underperforming the S&P. Gary Black twitter post seem to indicate they need to buy billions and billions (56 i think) more to be weighted correctly. The more it goes up the greater the problem for these guys. If it hits something like $1500 they could be in for a hundred billion buying spree or else they just badly underperform the passive funds.

So a real conundrum for them. There should be broad selling pressure on the rest of the S&P if they try to re balance. It's a pretty significant amount of money even in S&P

 

[jerry33]

Do you actually have to have less than 100% equity percentage before the broker can lend your shares, or does your broker get free reign over your shares regardless for being in a margin account?

Might depend on the broker, but TDA will be able to lend out every share you have.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Does anyone think Uncle Leo's story is weird?

My alarm always go off when a billionaire actively seeks attention.

And a billionaire I've never heard of and was never been mentioned in the tech field.

What I’m more worried about - assuming he is legit - is that he is clearly using a lot of margin again. That cost him all his TSLA shares during the last crash, as he got margin calls. His forced selling made the drop worse. The same thing could happen again if there is some black swan or macro event.

 

[mongo]

His comments came after Cavallo criticised Diess for his communication style in recent weeks, which she said fuelled concerns among workers that the transformation will result in tens of thousands of job cuts.

Wow, this is like a dysfunctional family where if you don't talk about it, it's not happening.

Spoiler: memes

Diess is trying to Neoify VW.

 

[nativewolf]

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reforms he thinks are needed to keep up with the likes of Tesla by addressing thousands of workers at the German carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again​

Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reform needed to challenge Tesla (TSLA.O) for the electric vehicle throne when he addressed thousands of workers at the carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.
…
"Only as a team can we make Volkswagen future-proof," Diess told a staff meeting, also attended by works council boss Daniela Cavallo, Lower Saxony state premier Stephan Weil and Joerg Hofmann, the head of powerful trade union IG Metall.
…
"I'm being frequently asked why I keep comparing us with Tesla. I know this is annoying to some," Diess said.
…
His comments came after Cavallo criticised Diess for his communication style in recent weeks, which she said fuelled concerns among workers that the transformation will result in tens of thousands of job cuts.

Diess tightrope job must be excruciating. Frankly i'm just waiting for VW to fail...no fan (to say the least). I do thank them for trying to bully the world on diesel gate because that got the EU off the fence and made them take the transformation to EVs seriously.

Of course it will result in tens of thousands of job losses. Tesla is 3x as efficient and getting better every month. Of course it will and VW, as a work protection project, will struggle to fulfill mission of creating jobs. They are still underestimating the impacts, the parts train is going to come off the track (most of the profits) in 5 years. I imagine that is 25% or so of the workforce alone. Just gut that one. Then robotaxi in next decade, huge drop in demand. More gutting. Then 3x as efficient. More gutting. I'd imagine it would be a hundred thousand jobs just in that one company. Hopefully it rips the evil soul right out of that monster.

 

[H Mak]

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity​

Published 01 Nov 2021

"We value Tesla’s current share price at $US3,369"

This is a note I received in my in-box from Holon Global Investments. I don't know who they are or why I received it. Maybe I subscribed some time ago on the basis of something posted on this forum. Anyway there's nothing particularly new in the note but it does underline what a wealth-creating juggernaut Tesla is becoming. A share price of over $3,000 is high, but is in line with others such as Ark Invest and Steven Mark Ryan.

I don't know about others but I have been feeling a bit woozy about the recent share price rises and there's a little niggle at the back of my mind which keeps asking "is it time to sell?". So notes like this, together with long term analyses from those mentioned above help to swat away that particular niggle. Sell now and you miss out.

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity

 

[elasalle]

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity​

Published 01 Nov 2021

"We value Tesla’s current share price at $US3,369"

This is a note I received in my in-box from Holon Global Investments. I don't know who they are or why I received it. Maybe I subscribed some time ago on the basis of something posted on this forum. Anyway there's nothing particularly new in the note but it does underline what a wealth-creating juggernaut Tesla is becoming. A share price of over $3,000 is high, but is in line with others such as Ark Invest and Steven Mark Ryan.

I don't know about others but I have been feeling a bit woozy about the recent share price rises and there's a little niggle at the back of my mind which keeps asking "is it time to sell?". So notes like this, together with long term analyses from those mentioned above help to swat away that particular niggle. Sell now and you miss out.

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity

With institutions and hedge funds having bought recently I think we will see more positive articles
- till they decide to cash out

Looks like the bards and poets are on our side

Let’s just hope uncle Leo doesn’t go Chamath on us

 

[MABMAB]

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity​

Published 01 Nov 2021

"We value Tesla’s current share price at $US3,369"

This is a note I received in my in-box from Holon Global Investments. I don't know who they are or why I received it. Maybe I subscribed some time ago on the basis of something posted on this forum. Anyway there's nothing particularly new in the note but it does underline what a wealth-creating juggernaut Tesla is becoming. A share price of over $3,000 is high, but is in line with others such as Ark Invest and Steven Mark Ryan.

I don't know about others but I have been feeling a bit woozy about the recent share price rises and there's a little niggle at the back of my mind which keeps asking "is it time to sell?". So notes like this, together with long term analyses from those mentioned above help to swat away that particular niggle. Sell now and you miss out.

Why Tesla is a “once-in-a-generation” buying opportunity

What an extremely underwhelming piece. They should hire Frank or someone that actually likes to write and research. And so many young beautiful fresh faces, I'd much rather trust Cathy or Gary with their actual or hints of grey.

 

[elasalle]

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reforms he thinks are needed to keep up with the likes of Tesla by addressing thousands of workers at the German carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Volkswagen CEO faces German workers as Tesla tensions flare again​

Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) CEO Herbert Diess sought to defuse a clash over the pace of reform needed to challenge Tesla (TSLA.O) for the electric vehicle throne when he addressed thousands of workers at the carmaker's Wolfsburg plant on Thursday.
…
"Only as a team can we make Volkswagen future-proof," Diess told a staff meeting, also attended by works council boss Daniela Cavallo, Lower Saxony state premier Stephan Weil and Joerg Hofmann, the head of powerful trade union IG Metall.
…
"I'm being frequently asked why I keep comparing us with Tesla. I know this is annoying to some," Diess said.
…
His comments came after Cavallo criticised Diess for his communication style in recent weeks, which she said fuelled concerns among workers that the transformation will result in tens of thousands of job cuts.

Hope Deiss is a good parent

Imagine how frustrating it is for a kid to always be compared to all of siblings great achievements

Having shown Elon the boogeyman on conference call he should stop now
In war as commander you don’t always talk about other sides superiority

 

[Ipe]

Just cannot agree more. Either some idiot trolling or something else weird going on.

Martin Viecha vouched for his identity on twitter.

 

[NicoV]

Nobody mentions that we’re achieving fresh ATH‘s in pre-market?

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t understand the reason to keep a much lower limit for sedans.

Take a look at where Ford and GM make virtually all their profits, then the reason for raising SUV/truck/VAN limits but not sedans becomes obvious.

I don't love the lower income caps on a personal level, but those are at least more understandable as a general thing. Likewise the 1-credit-per-person-per-year limit.

 

[Lessmog]

It's clear that the recent runup is due to active institutional tracking funds being far underweight so they are underperforming the S&P. Gary Black twitter post seem to indicate they need to buy billions and billions (56 i think) more to be weighted correctly. The more it goes up the greater the problem for these guys. If it hits something like $1500 they could be in for a hundred billion buying spree or else they just badly underperform the passive funds.

So a real conundrum for them. There should be broad selling pressure on the rest of the S&P if they try to re balance. It's a pretty significant amount of money even in S&P

Yes! As I recall we discussed this aspect pretty thoroughly last Fall pre-S&P and came to pretty much that conclusion. Must hurt to have missed TMC as an invaluable information source, as well as multiple chances to correct during 2021. Sucks to be them. Haha.

Some squeeze, eh.

 

[H Mak]

Nobody mentions that we’re achieving fresh ATH‘s in pre-market?

Again?

 

[The Accountant]

We Can Almost Write The 2022 10K Now

In 2022, if Tesla avoids any supply issues with batteries, chips and parts, then 1.5 million cars produced is the floor. The number could easily be higher.
In the table below, Q1 2020 - Q3 2021 are actuals and I have estimated Q4 2021 - Q4 2022.
I posted the quarterly numbers so you can eyeball the Qtr to Qtr progression and assess the estimates for yourselves.

Consider this:
FREMONT: I have Fremont with 510k units in 2022; this is 18% growth. On the earnings call, Zach stated they were looking for 50% growth over time. Production for 2022 could be 10k-25k higher.

SHANGHAI: The 690k units out of Shanghai in 2022 assumes 3 lines (1 M3 and 2 MY) producing 800/day each. However, I have seen reports that the Model Y lines have reached 1,000 units per day.
Note: There have been some disputes I believe on this forum on whether there is 1 line or 2 lines for the Model Y in Shanghai.

AUSTIN/BERLIN - I assume that Austin and Berlin ramp similar to Shanghai in 2020 with 150k units each. But Tesla has learned much since then (as we have seen with the 2021 Model Y ramp in Shanghai) and thus the 150k units from each site may be low.