Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wicket]

Speaking only for myself, this is profoundly incorrect. It is the attraction of shallow weak thinking that has drifted away from first principles thinking and toward wishful thinking that is high risk. First principles thinking is foundational and low risk and minimizes expensive lazy mistakes IMO.

How do others consider first principles thinking? As investors, how do we rate engineering competence when we invest?

if someone told you that you had to design something to knock in nails then most often using something ‘like one of the hammers at Home Depot‘ as analogy works rather than starting from scratch and pondering the nature of nails and wood in your particular state and situation and etc. But in a market scenario if you happen to design a better hammer which is unlikely you get a big payoff but most likely you fail to notice something surprising. The more formal coding of this is parametric (1st principals) vs non parametric (analogy). it’s the difference between predicting 2030 vehicles by guessing rather without reference to other examples what the regression shape is vs. finding say that Ford had a very similar pattern in 1908-1911 as you did in 2018-2020 and going with that.

 

[CLK350]

Great (if a bit longish) new YouTube post: Former TESLA EMPLOYEE Of 4 Years - This Is My Story Working For Tesla
youtube.com/watch?v=MlzWtQmYQvU

Edit: do subscribe to his channel, now at 88, add some comment, helps with the YT algos (and join YouTube is only for this purpose, costs nothing) to encourage/ support him on his journey


Farzad Mesbahi
88 subscribers

" I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations. Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019. My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
... "

Random snippets: " four years feel like 12 it's moving so fast .. surrounded by really smart people ... (Tesla) is an entrepreneur sandbox .. "

And if you wonder why he left after 4 years " .. I left because we gained financial security due to working at Tesla and other investments, and my wife and I are going to take time to travel and pursue passions. We are very lucky! "

Also in the YT comments, answering a question about how would Tesla fare were Elon not directing the ship anymore for whatever reasons:

" ..I think Tesla is at a point now where if Elon were to step away the ship would keep sailing. The road map is very clear and Elon seems to have a really strong exec group to push it forward for the fore-sable future. I don’t see Elon being uninvolved with the company until he’s dead, and until that time the vision and execution should still be first class from what I’ve seen."

Timestamps below
00:00 Introduction
02:27 Problem solving
06:00 Workforce
08:27 Stock and healthcare
11:10 Respect
13:17 Accomplishments
15:37 Guardrails
18:47 Politics
20:28 Sophistication
23:40 Breaking stuff
25:37 Talent
28:34 Speed
30:38 Celebrating wins
32:26 Day to day
33:50 Culture
35:49 Wearing hats
39:55 Ego
41:58 Honesty
43:20 Rest
47:30 Summary and closing

Watch: Former TESLA EMPLOYEE Of 4 Years - This Is My Story Working For Tesla

Snapshot added for archival purposes

Watch on YouTube

 

[UncaNed]

As a general point of order I would suggest that downvoting a post with multiple points that lacks some obvious overall incorrectness and for which there is also substantial support for.. and then not supplying any actual argument is mostly a performative display and unproductive. It doesn't map to normal interaction.

That's the unfortunate limit of the rating/voting system, the inherent ambiguous reference when we have to choose one vote icon for a post with lots of points. It'd be cool if we could click and drag the up/down/informative or whatever icon to the specific relevant text we want it to apply to so others could hover over it and see which part of thee text the voter intended for it to apply to.

Also for laptops, why don't they just show the row of all 6 icons to choose from instead having to hover over the like thingy in order for the other 5 icons to show up? There's plenty of room for the icons.

 

[Sofie]

50+ here and there are two things in this world I'm incapable of understanding; options trading and Reddit.

I’m 31 and those are the two things I stay the heck away from too (always have always will lol)

 

[Stretch2727]

Most concrete production data I have seen for Giga Berlin.

Start in December.

Targeting 1000 week in January, 30K for the first half of 2022.

Tesla to Start Production in Germany in December: Automobilwoche

Tesla Inc. will launch its overdue German production operations in December, Automobilwoche reported, estimating as many as 30,000 vehicles will be manufactured there in the first half of 2022.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[MartinAustin]

So what will Tesla do with Freemont MYs then? If what you say is true, won't the ramping up TX factory Osborne the full capacity CA factory?

If they just produce Performance Y in Texas while the factory is ramping up, and "regular" Y at Fremont, the osborning is solved, as much as it can be. Customers choose which factory builds their order when they select which variant they want.

Naturally Tesla will be upgrading Fremont as fast as they can.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla Economist suggests that Tesla may be sandbagging, which we all know they have no history of ever doing.

 

[Wicket]

Most concrete production data I have seen for Giga Berlin.

Start in December.

Targeting 1000 week in January, 30K for the first half of 2022.

Tesla to Start Production in Germany in December: Automobilwoche

Tesla Inc. will launch its overdue German production operations in December, Automobilwoche reported, estimating as many as 30,000 vehicles will be manufactured there in the first half of 2022.

www.bloomberg.com

hmm starts at 1k and 30k in 26 weeks.

“Well that’s the thing with s curves it’s hard to…”

we know Elon!

 

[Singuy]

"Tesla Inc. will launch its overdue German production operations in December, Automobilwoche reported, estimating as many as 30,000 vehicles will be manufactured there in the first half of 2022.

Production was to have begun in July but was delayed because the company hadn’t received environmental clearance. Local regulators are expected to grant the necessary permits within days, the magazine said, without reporting where it received its information.

Five units of Model Y have already been completed at the Gigafactory near Berlin, though not on the production line. In January, serial production will start with 1,000 cars per week and gradually increase, according to Automobilwoche"

Tesla to Start Production in Germany in December: Automobilwoche

Tesla Inc. will launch its overdue German production operations in December, Automobilwoche reported, estimating as many as 30,000 vehicles will be manufactured there in the first half of 2022.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Getting final approval for giga Berlin would be bullish AF. One big uncertainty slain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464968273812934660

 

[StealthP3D]

Agreed much older than Reddit or twitter. However I am not surprised. Elon is infamous for using first principles but on average that approach is more common with the young than the old. The young argue in abstractions and the experienced argue in analogies with details. First principles is high risk and high reward. The average tslaq member is older than the average tsla fan on twitter I wager (restrict to well known accounts and assume Gary is not 420) and not even close. For them the problem was more bad priors (their experience was unhelpful) less than bad reasoning per se. Tesla fans on twitter have good priors but often bad reasoning. Here there is better both although I may quibble a bit about the excessive social enforcement of dogma there is little to be done about it and I welcome the impenetrability for concern trolls.

Also, most people over 50 learned how to use English to communicate effectively before we graduated from high school. Those under 50 only learned to be effective communicators if they were exceptionally gifted.

 

[Wicket]

Also, most people over 50 learned how to use English to communicate effectively before we graduated from high school. Those under 50 only learned to be effective communicators if they were exceptionally gifted.

I can’t tell what that means. Are you calling my prose clunky!

pearls before swine!

 

[Paracelsus]

 

[SOULPEDL]

Targeting 1000 week in January, 30K for the first half of 2022.

Seems flat. 1,000 x 26 weeks = 26,000
So only 30K?

 

[Tslynk67]

Of course, @Opus BC fan . Would it help if I made the first question non-mandatory?

View attachment 737710

You need to have "0" as an option in this first question... I did have 3200 $TSLA shares at one point earlier this year, but currently hold zero, preferring my stock exposure via LEAPS instead

 

[The Accountant]

Most concrete production data I have seen for Giga Berlin.

Start in December.

Targeting 1000 week in January, 30K for the first half of 2022.

Tesla to Start Production in Germany in December: Automobilwoche

Tesla Inc. will launch its overdue German production operations in December, Automobilwoche reported, estimating as many as 30,000 vehicles will be manufactured there in the first half of 2022.

www.bloomberg.com

30k for the first half of 2022 in Berlin is too low imho.
If they target 1,000 per week in January, then no growth would be 26k for the first half (very close to the 30k quoted). That would be a poor ramp.
I am projecting 15k in Q1 and 30k in Q2 for a total of 45k for the first half (the same for Austin)

@SOULPEDL beat me to it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

30k for the first half of 2022 in Berlin is too low imho.
If they target 1,000 per week in January, then no growth would be 26k for the first half (very close to the 30k quoted). That would be a poor ramp.
I am projecting 15k in Q1 and 30k in Q2 for a total of 45k for the first half (the same for Austin)

@SOULPEDL beat me to it.

Only thing I could figure is that it's similar to the sporadic nature of the Fremont M3 startup - or sandbagging as mentioned. I recall Fremont at 1,000/week on and off again while they retrofit things. But that was an all-new product. Model Y is fairly mature aside from giga casting and 4680 TBD. So are they doing a dual boot with Cybertruck in parallel? Maybe only seeing half the picture.

 

[goinfraftw]

It might be useful to look at the past ramps and identify relative speed of those ramps (broken down by Model [3, Y, Plaid S, etc.]) as Tesla has learned between the Fremont and Shanghai factories to project out how Berlin and Texas might go.

...wish I had that data...

 

[mrmage]

View attachment 738304

That means whatever the delivery numbers in Q4, the numbers in Q1 22 should smash those. If Q4 PD is below estimates, SP could drop offering a great buying opportunity.

But if Q4 PD meets or exceeds expectations, it will be time to back up the truck in anticipation of Q1 earnings and deliveries.

First trading day of 2022 will be Monday Jan 3, right when PD comes out - the best time to releverage for those with taxable accounts. If SP lags the news as it often does, there will be a lot of exciting options.

 

[Christine69420]

50+ here and there are two things in this world I'm incapable of understanding; options trading and Reddit.

I'm 50+ too and for me options looks so much like work. I am trying to be retired here! On the other hand I've been a redditor since they started up. And some of you here might remember Digg?

I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.

That surprises me too! So many here have an impressive level of detailed knowledge of all kinds of numbers and facts. My brain is not wired for these kind of things. And even less after retirement. I'm more on the creative end of the spectrum. Which is what got me hooked on Tesla and all things Elon. Tesla is the most creative car company by far!