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Most concrete production data I have seen for Giga Berlin.

Start in December.

Targeting 1000 week in January, 30K for the first half of 2022.

My take is that the GF Berlin will ramp slightly (10%) slower than GF Shanghai, even with the single rear casings and learnt knowledge of having compelted two mass manufacturing auto facilities prior. We know that GF Shanghai produced approx. 52k cars in its first six months of scaled production (see red bubble in graph below). My guesstimate for GF Berlin is neglible amount of cars for 2021 and 46k cars in its first half of 2022. Ditto for GF Austin.

Similarly using 90% of Shanghai production for 2nd half of 2022 would equate to 112k cars. Ditto for GF Austin.

Full year 2022, both GF Berlin and GF Austin would each add 164k cars to Tesla's grand Production total.

Screen Shot 2021-11-28 at 1.18.46 PM.png
 
One clarification- I live in a house, rent out a condo and yet 90% of my asset is in TSLA;)

Both paid off in last 1 year with proceeds from some timely selling of options - 100% debt free:)
You might almost be me. Live in a house, rent out a town home, both in VA, still 95% is Tesla. And me vin is 194xx!
 
Yeah, that descriptor was a bit off - I should have used "can you say 'all in'??" ;)

It's also misleading because if someone has over 25,000 shares, they could have over 75% of their investments in TSLA while still owning a nice house / island!! But I've found it messes up results if you change the labels for any choices, so I left it as is.

Congrats BTW on a wise use of your finances, @elasalle !
You could make the question ask for # of shares (for non-option people) or total delta for those that own LEAPS. That would give the equivalent number of shares combining shares and LEAPS.
 
As an indicator that money will be moving out of equities, ya?
BTC has been going down on the risk-off days recently, including last week. I think BTC being up is a decent sign of rebound. It'll be real interesting to see what oil does Monday after a 13% drop Friday.

I see TSLA rising thru Wednesday as MM's cover last week's shorting.
 
I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.
Considering the platforms I'm not surprised at all. Old-fashioned websites like TMC do appeal to older people.
There is quite copious use, dwell time and activity metrics (posting, response, purchasing etc) for all significant web type categories and specific platforms. All 'the good stuff' is behind paywall. Thus I will post general data for four of them. The various platform use and dominance varies dramatically by country so I list only US dat and order.

Traditional special interest (fan) website (e.g. TMC): Comparing three of those for which I had data on both the fan site and subject data. Both tend to have quite similar demographics but are overrepresented by the oldest user cohorts. [considering the dreaded 'mother-in-law' research as irrelevant. I do note there are many people active on the TMC site who are my age and older. Factually we skew OLD! Separately, the multiTesla owners and sequential ones almost by definition skew older. Obviously, quite a few of these people bought TSLA in the early years and never sold. Thus we tend to have much more financial assets than do most people our age. In any event this traditional website format skews older also.

Facebook: Slightly anomalous because so much Facebook content is advertising and promotion, with restaurant menus such in with like-minded advocates for some specific thing. Because it is strongly visual it tends towards a younger audience than do most other groups. Facebook demographics vary so dramatically that they are truly site specific.

Reddit: From Statista
Everything in the link seems more or less correct with two huge exception. AMA on Reddit reflects pretty much the demographics of the sponsors fans.
For Reddit fan sites that are on topics also covered with traditional websites Reddit skews very young, overwhelmingly male. These cases also tend to make the traditional sites on the same subject older and more diverse. The Statista information does give clues.

I show nothing at all for giants like Google and Baidu, each of which has almost ubuitous use among internet users in their respective markets of dominance.
I exclude specialists such as WhatsApp because they tend to be single market dominant. For example WhatApp is used universally in Brazil and Mexico, to the exclusion of traditional voicemail and other messaging applications.

Conclusions:
Running the same investor survey on Tesla Reddit, TMC and Discord Tesla groups will end out with oldest and most stable on TMC, Reddit will be youngest and probably most prone to options, margin etc. Discord will be in between, but tend slightly less aggressive than will Reddit.

I have data on a number of other platforms all does within the last year, all for product classes roughly analogous to Tesla.

It would be great to have exact data specific to Tesla. That is very, very hard to accomplish.
 
No, no. Thats 30K a week.
Very unlikely. GF Shanghai is approaching two full years of mass production and they are still nowhere near 30,000 per week production (refer to chart in my last post). That would be a run rate at the end of six months production at 1.56 million cars for GF Berlin alone. IMHO I believe a 3,000/week production after six months is more realistic, which leads me to believe that the 30,000 was a typo (one too many zeros) or miscalculation on the original authors part.
 
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Why have lots of Model 3 deliveries been pulled forward into December from January if they want to flatten the end of qtr. wave?

There are only two possible answers:

1) Cancelled or delayed orders are moving reservations forward
2) Tesla is producing and delivering cars at a faster rate than they projected.

I suspect it has more to do with #2 and less with #1 for the following reason:

The reservations being moved forward have lower prices by a significant amount than Tesla is currently offering for new reservations. I don't suspect too many people who had locked in a lower price and were getting close to delivery would cancel. And then you have the time value of the reservation. A car available now (or soon) is worth more than one available at an indeterminate time in the future.

I think it's pretty clear production numbers are higher than Tesla was projecting when they estimated delivery timelines.
 
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I was wondering where all the external clicks were coming from this morning!

Thank you so much for posting this and creating exposure to my channel and videos. My plan is to make a bunch here in the coming weeks, and your support is greatly appreciated! What an amazing community!

It was a very good video, very informative too. I watched it while I put my Christmas tree up this morning! :D
 
This appeared in Automotive News new edition. It is rather informative, isn't it? No comments, just data:

I actually dropped the cash for a sub on this a while back and never looked at the site again, and it wasn’t cheap. If someone needs a paywall fetch in the future keep me in mind. Actually I suppose that may violate TOS here but if there is some specific info to pull I suppose that is shareable.
 
I actually dropped the cash for a sub on this a while back and never looked at the site again, and it wasn’t cheap. If someone needs a paywall fetch in the future keep me in mind. Actually I suppose that may violate TOS here but if there is some specific info to pull I suppose that is shareable.
Actually paid subscribers do have the ability to link articles and even compete issues. I do so quite judiciously. OTOH my company has been a scriber since long before there was a digital copy. Their Tesla coverage is quite strange bet the data quotes are generally accurate.
FWIW, this issue also has a long discussion fo battery raw material sourcing and a number of OEM plans. They did not say anything about Tesla except a vague peripheral comment or two.

They ddi say a bit about the LG/GM ultium plans.
 
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