Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

Even with the weekend, it hasn't stopped. I'm not going to link to what I'm talking about, but it's again about FSD "endangering" the public.

I'm still on beta 10.5, but I've tested in multiple cities and states. From my experience, it's more likely to "annoy" the public than endanger anyone, because of how cautious it is. 10.5 is hyperaware of vulnerable road users.

I personally don't include robotaxis in my valuation of Tesla, but from an investment perspective, I do still think about it a lot. I wonder just how much legal action by the govt can impede progress of FSD. My only conclusions are that it's almost impossible to predict what the govt will do, but if they do try to handicap FSD development, Tesla will still be able to have employees continue testing on the roads. This will slow progress, but not stop it.

About 10GB/day is being uploaded on average for public beta testers, with about 25GB/day the upper amount for those who choose to tag videos to be sent back to Tesla. AI day revealed that Tesla has 1000 labelers. Honestly, I'd be surprised to learn they're able to keep up with the Terabytes of data this implies (the "recall" let us know there are at least 12,000 beta testers as of a few weeks ago) they're being sent every day, even if they're discarding a large % of it.

My point is, being forced to pare back to closed beta, which I think it's the most damaging thing govt can do, still doesn't kill the program. Tesla will march along.

Just thought I'd put that argument out there for people who read the FSD fear mongering articles. They're not going to stop anytime soon.

Short term there will be FUD.
But longer term (~5 years) there might be actual, positive government cooperation.

Why!
Two reasons: Economic downturn caused by ICE having problems, going under or needing massive gov help AND also increasing transportaion costs adding to inflation and reducing consumer demand for other goods and services.

Why? We are already seeing the demand for EVs growing a lot, and that will just continue and the trickle will become a flood.

As EVs gain demand momentum, ICE will suffer even steeper demand loss - and we know how important volume is for auto companies.
A lot of ICE companies will be in trouble in 5 years - maybe even shorter time.
(Maybe that is what is actually partly happening right now. Yes, the chip crises is real, but it is also a good excuse)

So, in ~5 years or even less, we will have massive demand for EVs while still not able to produce enough - worldwide. Even with Tesla ramping with insane speed, plus the many chinese companies, plus some of the smarter EU and US ICE companies trying to ramp, I don't think there will be enough EVs produced.
How should people get to work then? Buy an obsolete ICE car? Nope - not gonna happen.
Lease an ICE car? Who will take the risk as as a fleet owner when the most people don't want' ICE cars anymore, and resale prices will tank? Those leases will be very expensive if they can be gotten at all.

The worldwide overall productivity will suffer if enough people choose to work less or simply are able to work less because transportation becomes more time consuming eating into their productive hours.
Also more money spend on transport (because EVs are expensive due to very high demand) means less money for consumption so the economy contracts.
Both at the same time: Very bad for the economy.

Robotaxis to the rescue!
Good EVs with sufficient autonomy can serve 3-5 or more people compared with a non-FSD car thus helping to plug the demand gap.
More people can work more hours due to effective transportation AND robotaxis will be cheaper so more money for consumber to spend => more economic growth.
More growth => more taxes.
Less people involved in accidents, more people working => more taxes.

So at the same time as the economic hurt from ICE companies suffering, going under or requiring massive stimulus and assistance starts effecting the broader economy due to the steady demise of ICE the governtments around the world will be incentivized to actively support FSD and robotaxis.

Off course, some governments are somewhat corrupt and some are stupid, so it is not guaranteed they will actually do what is best for them.

But the smart goventments will at that time talk about how the transportation crisis can be solved by using technology: AI and autonomy. The smart government will actively promote FSD and campaing for "work while driving" and setup attractive regulations and taxationg for utilizing robotaxis.
Some corrupt or ill-functioning government will stall and work against FSD.
But in all of the functioning - or at least semi-functioning democracies the transitioning to FSD and robotaxis might be somewhat delayed, but will occur, due to competing parties telling the public what they are missing, and then winning subsequent elections.

 

[Buckminster]

Is Elon getting more interested in history because he is increasingly aware that he is writing it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469968168189931521

 

[redan]

Giga Shanghai single-handedly picking up the slack for delays elsewhere. Wow, they definitely need more car carriers!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469932136224354307

 

[Buckminster]

To get to a cheap car you can sacrifice top speed, trim, acceleration, some cargo space. The one thing that you can’t sacrifice (unless specifically a city car) is range. We can already buy cheap EVs here (such as the Zoe or Dacia Spring). What we can’t buy is such a car with range. In Europe people have something called holidays. Lots of them, like 20-35 per year. (I know of a European who got blocked by an American because he didn’t believe her when she told how him how many days off she had). We go places. People drive from Belgium to Spain or Italy to go on holiday. Affordable PLUS range, is what is needed (With a size that fits on the eternally shrinking European parking lots).

I disagree regarding range. I think 200 miles is more than sufficient for most robotaxis which is the primary use case of M2. Won't be a popular comment here but that is how Elon thinks - most of Tesla's work can be traced back to creating the most effective RT. Sonic the Hedgehog included.

 

[jbcarioca]

…
2. A smaller hatchback/performance hot-hatch would be a good seller outside North America. This could also span a lower start something different that shares parts (like the 3/Y).

I guess what I'm trying to say is that smaller doesn't equal cheaper. If you want a Tesla for a base price, you'll live with what is the entry level. If you have money and want a hot-hatch, you might not have room for a model S plaid.

This has been discussed a long time ago, but not much recently. The hot hatch and hotter hatch markets are very lucrative while base entry level cars are cheap, but often less popular than are the hot hatches. The VW Golf often is regarded as the origin with the GTI. I personally owned a Fiat Uno Turbo I.e.and a Peugeot 205 GTI which sold for a little more than double the price of the base cars.
In context, the hottest versions can often deliver near-supercar performance.

Without a doubt Tesla will sell the new small car as a hatch and will definitely have a Plaaid-like version at a major price differential. It will be sold widely, but might not make it to the US. Very few have, including the Ford Focus RS, a stellar example.

Ford Focus RS 2015-2018 review | Autocar

Is Ford’s AWD mega-hatch as special as we first thought? And can the Focus RS beat stiff competition from the Volkswagen Golf R and Mercedes-AMG A45?

www.autocar.co.uk

The huge opportunity is that these have always been hot-rodded ICE and have recently had emissions and safety challenges. Tesla, with a single casting and all the rest, can eliminate those problems and even reduce marginal cost so the margins will be magnificent. I, for one, will buy one wherever it can be bought.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I think there are several sides to the 25k car idea. Most are assuming a smaller/cheaper car, but I think that is quite likely two separate things.

1. A model 3 single motor with single castings (like the Y), SR trim, LFP battery could end up being very cheap for them to produce as a low cost car.

2. A smaller hatchback/performance hot-hatch would be a good seller outside North America. This could also span a lower start price than the current model 3 up to a performance trim at a respectable price.

3. The China R&D facility could do something that is the basis for the above, or even something different that shares parts (like the 3/Y).

I guess what I'm trying to say is that smaller doesn't equal cheaper. If you want a Tesla for a base price, you'll live with what is the entry level. If you have money and want a hot-hatch, you might not have room for a model S plaid.

If (when) AI for real world driving become sufficiently good, the price of a transportation device can become almost artitrarily low.
Why?
Well, reasoning from first principles, why do we need all that metal? To protect in accidents.
Well, what if, say in in 30 years or so, accidents with lethal outcome are so rare that they make headline news?
Why is a metal enclosure needed at all?
All you need is a plus-sized skateboard, maybe 80x60 cm with a battery, wheels, a seat and compute unit (For safety local compute is needed)
The vehicle body will also house a full body airbag for the rare accidents that do occur. The Personal Transport Device is born.

So, instead of a 2+ ton metal hunk with a myriad of moving parts all you need is less than 2 cubic meters of mostly plastic, carbon, paper or synthetic wood. Perhaps 100 kg will suffice for such a vehicle. When produced in quantities of 100 million units a year what would that cost?
Perhaps 2000 dollars? (current value)
Would Tesla make such a 'car' or personal transport device? Absolutely! If FSD and Dojo is developed accordning to plan, Tesla will built the very best PTD because Tesla will have the best AI by a very wide margin.
And it will be the coolest: The design will be great, offering a lot of variations. AND it will have the best interconnecting options in a lot of cities, assuming that the Boring company is also very successful over the next ~30 years.

Off course 'normal' Tesla and other cars will still be around, for people who are willing to pay a lot more for that. But most driven kilometers in this scenario will be done by using this kind of ultra-cheap personal transport device. They will just be everywhere.

Off course, above will require massive cultural re-programming on how we view transportation. But ... ~30 years is a looong time.

PS
Such a transportation device (PTD) would actually support a limited mode of vertical transport! Imagine a skyscraper wall with either magnetic or even a simple mechanical rail embedded. The POD device arrives, and hooks into the wall, and starts vertical ascend. So not only will it be cheap, you don't need parking or elevators - the pod will transport you directly to your designated floor - or even office area, if horizontal tracks are supported as well. So it will be cheap and ultra fast.
Off course tunnels can be used as well. For price reasons, the motor/battery is perhaps optimized for around 80 km/h and 100 km per charge. For short rides, the tunnels are just used as is. For longer travels, the pod is either dismounted and a passenger boring vehichle is entered OR 20-30 PODs are aggregated into a supporting boring platform, and the platform is then accelerated to ~200 km/h until your exit terminus is reached.
Above scenario offers people the chance to socialize by choice, or keep their individual space, for resting/sleeping/working.
PS2
Cities can, for sight-seing reason and/or transport reasons, construct huge, but still light-weight arches, aka sky-bridges, spanning hundreds of meters or event kilometers if embedded in buildings along the way: You personal transport unit hooks up to the sky-bridge, and for a price you get to enjoy the city-scape from the city arch vantage point.
PS3
If the PTD is a de-luxe, multi-mode unit, you can use the array of small built-in propellers to drop and make a controlled descent from the arch unto your office - or residential building.
PS4
Why not straigh-up flying? I assume that ground transport will always win out cost-wize due to the physics of not needing lift (and thus avoiding larger battery and more expensive motors and rotors)
There will for sure be a limited marked for flying PTDs. But combined with both tunnels, and some sky-bridges, ground PTD will offer most of the 3D logistics advantages of flying at a lower energy cost than flying. It makes sense to standardize and volume produce the most common usecase.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

The Sum of US dot org just sent an email stating that Toyota is funding opossion against environmental laws world wide.

If this is true, then Toyota is aiming to be the next GM.

It is one thing to not produce full on EVs; it is quite another to actively block evolution/progress financially. Far cry from the company appointing a bloodline member to head the electrification division. Remember that a few years back?

I think (yeah, thought that would get your attention), that humans are voting with their pocketbook. I am in the mode of buying electric source products regardless of incentives. I do not assume that line of thinking across the board.

Note: Last week drove up to Seattle and Tacoma (city) from Olympia. On last trip, I saw two semi’s loaded with Ys and 3s close together heading north bound toward Seattle or Canada. Saturday, we watched GrandPups while daughter and son-in-law picked up their brand new Model Y.

 

[jbcarioca]

I disagree regarding range. I think 200 miles is more than sufficient for most robotaxis which is the primary use case of M2. Won't be a popular comment here but that is how Elon thinks - most of Tesla's work can be traced back to creating the most effective RT. Sonic the Hedgehog included.

I disagree, even though I liked your post. For the base model you’re right. They definitely need more range and better specifications in upscale models. Both extremes will sell well, just as nearly all do nearly worldwide. Really the US is the exception to the rule.

Elon is quite well aware of the market. He’s not ignorant of high performance options as market enhancers and margin contributors. Just compare the cheap Focus company car with the RS, for a UK-centric view.

 

[winfield100]

I'm completely on board with this, by the way. A real trade school, then clone it as needed globally, possibly affect our education system by example. $$$Universities$$$ beware.

OT
planted this seed on another forum, full of ’s, will check back and see if they run with TIT&S UP.

 

[22522]

I disagree regarding range. I think 200 miles is more than sufficient for most robotaxis which is the primary use case of M2. Won't be a popular comment here but that is how Elon thinks - most of Tesla's work can be traced back to creating the most effective RT. Sonic the Hedgehog included.

Battery chemistry, particularly state of charge for longest life, is a part of this discussion as it effects full charge range, logistics and differentiation.

Tesla's historic chemistry has the longest life if stored at 50% charge (1st order, I posted charts a year or so ago that showed this is true for that whole family of "alloys".) This means a homeowner can charge to the lowest level daily driver settings (50%) and still start each day with 150 miles on a 300 mile range vehicle.

[I set my charge level to end each day at 50% charge and delay recharge until the last minute with a departure time of 6AM to maximize time stored at 50% state of charge.]

As Elon pointed out, this partial charge approach makes no sense for a rental car, where people want to start with a full tank, thus heavier Lithium Iron Phosphate is the answer for rental cars.

Does the same hold true for robot taxis? They don't really hang around with a full tank.

What matters for Robot Taxis is cycle life and charge speed. NMC was getting pretty good on cycle life with the right electrolyte additives.

Here is a Sandia paper from 2020 that seems to test LFP against old tech NMC with the extrapolated LFP delivering 5000 cycles with 90% degradation:

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

But this shows close to 5000 cycles with 90% degradation on NMCs

Dahn’s “million-mile battery” detailed in open-access paper in JES

Researchers at Dalhousie University, led by Professor Jeff Dahn, have developed an excellent moderate-energy-density lithium-ion pouch cell chemistry that they say should be able to power an electric vehicle for more than 1.6 million kilometers (1 million miles) and last at least two decades in...

www.greencarcongress.com

Summary: Tesla may (or may not) have a fast charge, long cycle life advantage in the Robot taxi space with 4680 NMC cells - which is where their differential advantage is (compared to outsourced LFP prismatic cells that anyone can buy).

Thumbnails of the graph data used are here for quick validation of statements made. [I know extrapolation over a knee is bad practice, but the most relevant comparison was at 5000 cycles & 90% degradation just over a possible knee.]

 

[2daMoon]

Lars brings the weekly Best in Tesla News update with lots of good info and wraps up with a fitting tribute to Mary Barra who received a "Leadership" award from Columbia University.

 

[SOULPEDL]

o, there was a left turn lane where the hide problems, but to avoid being in anyone's way... without avoiding traffic. It's tricky.

You either have a short memory, or you're ignoring all the false "breaking" reports Sawyer's made.

The best part is that sometimes I don't even pay attention. but ya gotta love the honesty around here.

Yes to memory, no to ignoring I'm just not always fact checking or scorekeeping. but you're doing fine please continue thank you! I'm better at pondering stuff. Writing slows my thoughts down so I can capture them otherwise they're gone, poof!

I do skip dozens of pages completely, just not lately as this Show and Tell weekend unfolds before our eyes. I'm literally concerned that we all get haircuts for the short-term then wondering if/when it returns. Sensing the bandaid is coming off this week. Could be nothing, everything, could be shorts, options, anybody's guess. Like I'm on a fast ride and decided long ago to just buckle in.

Clearly Sawyer gets inside info. What I don't get is why he would be a channel to release valid Tesla news but other times be way off. Are they talking into cans down a string? Or do you think these are legit leaks from various employees and take them all with a grain of salt? And if someone is wrong, you ignore them? I'm surprise we still talk!

Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to the EM interview from Dan soon. It's a History in the Making channel now. Is this not the most exciting thing to ponder? Best puzzle ever!

 

[jbcarioca]

More points to consider, Tesla doesn’t make slow cars, also Tesla doesn’t make unsafe cars.

Yes smaller cars has smaller frontal area and would weigh less, so needs smaller battery.

But remember maneuverability is also a safety feature, most smaller cars are cheaper because they sacrifice a lot of that.

A decent sized sedan/hatch/wagon that share 80% components with the world’s best selling vehicle(Model Y) will give you the economy of scale you might not be able to beat by just going small/cheap.

small is not equal to unsafe;
small is often more maneuverable, not less than larger;
small is not equal to cheap;
The prototypical US view is that larger is better and small is cheap.
This needs to be repeated quite often because the misleading comments keep coming.
For Tesla specifically smaller probably will be cheaper. Why?

With GigaPresses the entire small car cassis could be a single casting;
Operating system will be nearly identical, just as it is now between Models S3XY;
Most electronics can be shared with other models,
Motors, BMS, etc all can be common parts with SpaceX fins, 3, Y and others.

Note that all that will indeed cost less but is not detracting one iota of performance, quality or safety.
Those shared components and processes, especially the GigaPress will reduce cost drastically while increasing quality and safety.
Of course once they've done that they also have the easy opportunity to introduce a wide variety of different vehicles without high cost.
I suggest they will have;
-a base sedan,
-a base suv,
-mini van,
-mini bus,
delivery truck,
-a pickup
-a taxi or two
plus:
-hot hatch (probably a couple of variants, as they are beginning to do with Plaid via aftermarket brakes),
-premium levels of sedan and suv.
-

Most of us seem to misunderstand what 'smaller' means. Smaller enables a nice variety of vehicles, some urban, some not, some utility oriented some not.
Think India, Southeast Asia, China, South America, nearly all of Europe, and Africa.

The new design from China will be what generally si called a 'world car' that exists in differing versions worldwide depending on local conditions.

One reference: The Toyota Corolla: it sells as a cheap entry level car in the US, as a small luxurious car in Brazil as one or the other almost everywhere in the world, sometimes both. They all might look alike but are not. Then look at single 'platforms' from several manufacturers. The Wiki is superficial but instructive:

Car platform - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

None of that reflects the Tesla practice which has a weak equivalent in VAG.

VAG philosophy has been built on mostly Ice but is beginning to appear with BEV's. Their distinctive practice has been the use of similar dimensions for many common parts while permitting individual brands to combine as they wish. That famously included pistons shared between Bugatti Veyrom and VW Fox. VAG shares parts, sometimes platforms but often difference QC approaches. At common use this produces brand engineering (VW, Audi, Seat Skoda have a few models that are not easy to distinguish)

The Tesla philosophy reflects thought quoted from Elon regarding SpaceX. paraphrasing: 'there are economies of scale, the 'brain' of a rocket is the same whether it is small of gigantic'. Thus the vehicle operating system works for any vehicle with minor changes. Thus Model 3 motors work in most places from Model Y, Falcon 9 fins, to Semi and even a fe S and X versions.

Once the GigaPress works well it can save huge benefits in components, assembly, rigidity, durability and cost.
Once switchgear, lighting, and so on are in mass productions they are also easy too use in multiple cases.

So, what can go wrong? As Sandy Munro has said ad nauseam, choosing form the parts bin rather than optimizing for the application produces bad choices.
[Aerospace is instructive: Does anybody want a Boeing 737MAX with control systems from 1967 and manual cable controls with automated actuation, sometimes?]. Thus the Tesla approach really is First Principles. They do not reinvent something that is already evolving and improving. Do invent something if it can be better done in a new way.

All that is a verbose way of saying that Tesla will make small vehicles in ways that seem unlikely today. What they'll be we can speculate. We do know that the new smaller vehicles will astonish us in wonderful ways. Among those I am convinced will be versions that will delight many different markets in many different ways. Of course they already know CKD from Tilburg. That won't be the first choice but it will happen for large differentiated markets. Where? India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and so on. As this evolves we may be assured it will not be traditional CKD, but will involve sourcing various parts near sources of their required ingredients. Tesla has been planning those things for quite a while. A cursory examination of Tesla travels during the last couple of years suggest some of these locations.

In sum, it is very shortsighted to think the 'China designed vehicle' is singular or even a vehicle.
Question: what country has arranged the best sourcing of critical materials used in solar panels, electronics and batteries?
Question 2: in what country is Tesla's largest operating factories?
Question 3: From what country come the most reliable;e Tesla suppliers?

As we recently have heard it seems the Audi and Porsche BEV's share the same battery pack but do not share the AC charge controller.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why is a metal enclosure needed at all?
All you need is a plus-sized skateboard, maybe 80x60 cm with a battery, wheels, a seat and compute unit (For safety local compute is needed)
The vehicle body will also house a full body airbag for the rare accidents that do occur. The Personal Transport Device is born.

So, instead of a 2+ ton metal hunk with a myriad of moving parts all you need is less than 2 cubic meters of mostly plastic, carbon, paper or synthetic wood. Perhaps 100 kg will suffice for such a vehicle. When produced in quantities of 100 million units a year what would that cost?
Perhaps 2000 dollars?

You mean like this? Elon's ex-girl friend is one of the stars of "Westworld".

BTW, they have a futuristic eVTOL cab too. Just not in Elon's roadmap just yet, I think.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

If (when) AI for real world driving become sufficiently good, the price of a transportation device can become almost artitrarily low.
Why?
Well, reasoning from first principles, why do we need all that metal? To protect in accidents.
Well, what if, say in in 30 years or so, accidents with lethal outcome are so rare that they make headline news?
Why is a metal enclosure needed at all?
All you need is a plus-sized skateboard, maybe 80x60 cm with a battery, wheels, a seat and compute unit (For safety local compute is needed)
The vehicle body will also house a full body airbag for the rare accidents that do occur. The Personal Transport Device is born.

So, instead of a 2+ ton metal hunk with a myriad of moving parts all you need is less than 2 cubic meters of mostly plastic, carbon, paper or synthetic wood. Perhaps 100 kg will suffice for such a vehicle. When produced in quantities of 100 million units a year what would that cost?
Perhaps 2000 dollars? (current value)
Would Tesla make such a 'car' or personal transport device? Absolutely! If FSD and Dojo is developed accordning to plan, Tesla will built the very best PTD because Tesla will have the best AI by a very wide margin.
And it will be the coolest: The design will be great, offering a lot of variations. AND it will have the best interconnecting options in a lot of cities, assuming that the Boring company is also very successful over the next ~30 years.

Off course 'normal' Tesla and other cars will still be around, for people who are willing to pay a lot more for that. But most driven kilometers in this scenario will be done by using this kind of ultra-cheap personal transport device. They will just be everywhere.

Off course, above will require massive cultural re-programming on how we view transportation. But ... ~30 years is a looong time.

PS
Such a transportation device (PTD) would actually support a limited mode of vertical transport! Imagine a skyscraper wall with either magnetic or even a simple mechanical rail embedded. The POD device arrives, and hooks into the wall, and starts vertical ascend. So not only will it be cheap, you don't need parking or elevators - the pod will transport you directly to your designated floor - or even office area, if horizontal tracks are supported as well. So it will be cheap and ultra fast.
Off course tunnels can be used as well. For price reasons, the motor/battery is perhaps optimized for around 80 km/h and 100 km per charge. For short rides, the tunnels are just used as is. For longer travels, the pod is either dismounted and a passenger boring vehichle is entered OR 20-30 PODs are aggregated into a supporting boring platform, and the platform is then accelerated to ~200 km/h until your exit terminus is reached.
Above scenario offers people the chance to socialize by choice, or keep their individual space, for resting/sleeping/working.
PS2
Cities can, for sight-seing reason and/or transport reasons, construct huge, but still light-weight arches, aka sky-bridges, spanning hundreds of meters or event kilometers if embedded in buildings along the way: You personal transport unit hooks up to the sky-bridge, and for a price you get to enjoy the city-scape from the city arch vantage point.
PS3
If the PTD is a de-luxe, multi-mode unit, you can use the array of small built-in propellers to drop and make a controlled descent from the arch unto your office - or residential building.
PS4
Why not straigh-up flying? I assume that ground transport will always win out cost-wize due to the physics of not needing lift (and thus avoiding larger battery and more expensive motors and rotors)
There will for sure be a limited marked for flying PTDs. But combined with both tunnels, and some sky-bridges, ground PTD will offer most of the 3D logistics advantages of flying at a lower energy cost than flying. It makes sense to standardize and volume produce the most common usecase.

At the rate of AI development, I literally think we'll have this type of transportation in 30 yrs.

 

[Krugerrand]

o, there was a left turn lane where the hide problems, but to avoid being in anyone's way... without avoiding traffic. It's tricky.

The best part is that sometimes I don't even pay attention. but ya gotta love the honesty around here.

Yes to memory, no to ignoring I'm just not always fact checking or scorekeeping. but you're doing fine please continue thank you! I'm better at pondering stuff. Writing slows my thoughts down so I can capture them otherwise they're gone, poof!

I do skip dozens of pages completely, just not lately as this Show and Tell weekend unfolds before our eyes. I'm literally concerned that we all get haircuts for the short-term then wondering if/when it returns. Sensing the bandaid is coming off this week. Could be nothing, everything, could be shorts, options, anybody's guess. Like I'm on a fast ride and decided long ago to just buckle in.

Clearly Sawyer gets inside info. What I don't get is why he would be a channel to release valid Tesla news but other times be way off. Are they talking into cans down a string? Or do you think these are legit leaks from various employees and take them all with a grain of salt? And if someone is wrong, you ignore them? I'm surprise we still talk!

Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to the EM interview from Dan soon. It's a History in the Making channel now. Is this not the most exciting thing to ponder? Best puzzle ever!

Stop waiting for the other shoe to fall off. A lot of times it doesn’t and then you’ve wasted all those resources just waiting for nothing to happen.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Stop waiting for the other shoe to fall off. A lot of times it doesn’t and then you’ve wasted all those resources just waiting for nothing to happen.

Until it does. Whatever people.

 

[AudubonB]

small is not equal to unsafe;
small is often more maneuverable, not less than larger;
small is not equal to cheap;
The prototypical US view is that larger is better and small is cheap.
This needs to be repeated quite often because the misleading comments keep coming.
For Tesla specifically smaller probably will be cheaper. Why?

With GigaPresses the entire small car cassis could be a single casting;
Operating system will be nearly identical, just as it is now between Models S3XY;
Most electronics can be shared with other models,
Motors, BMS, etc all can be common parts with SpaceX fins, 3, Y and others.

Note that all that will indeed cost less but is not detracting one iota of performance, quality or safety.
Those shared components and processes, especially the GigaPress will reduce cost drastically while increasing quality and safety.
Of course once they've done that they also have the easy opportunity to introduce a wide variety of different vehicles without high cost.
I suggest they will have;
-a base sedan,
-a base suv,
-mini van,
-mini bus,
delivery truck,
-a pickup
-a taxi or two
plus:
-hot hatch (probably a couple of variants, as they are beginning to do with Plaid via aftermarket brakes),
-premium levels of sedan and suv.
-

Most of us seem to misunderstand what 'smaller' means. Smaller enables a nice variety of vehicles, some urban, some not, some utility oriented some not.
Think India, Southeast Asia, China, South America, nearly all of Europe, and Africa.

The new design from China will be what generally si called a 'world car' that exists in differing versions worldwide depending on local conditions.

One reference: The Toyota Corolla: it sells as a cheap entry level car in the US, as a small luxurious car in Brazil as one or the other almost everywhere in the world, sometimes both. They all might look alike but are not. Then look at single 'platforms' from several manufacturers. The Wiki is superficial but instructive:

Car platform - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

None of that reflects the Tesla practice which has a weak equivalent in VAG.

VAG philosophy has been built on mostly Ice but is beginning to appear with BEV's. Their distinctive practice has been the use of similar dimensions for many common parts while permitting individual brands to combine as they wish. That famously included pistons shared between Bugatti Veyrom and VW Fox. VAG shares parts, sometimes platforms but often difference QC approaches. At common use this produces brand engineering (VW, Audi, Seat Skoda have a few models that are not easy to distinguish)

The Tesla philosophy reflects thought quoted from Elon regarding SpaceX. paraphrasing: 'there are economies of scale, the 'brain' of a rocket is the same whether it is small of gigantic'. Thus the vehicle operating system works for any vehicle with minor changes. Thus Model 3 motors work in most places from Model Y, Falcon 9 fins, to Semi and even a fe S and X versions.

Once the GigaPress works well it can save huge benefits in components, assembly, rigidity, durability and cost.
Once switchgear, lighting, and so on are in mass productions they are also easy too use in multiple cases.

So, what can go wrong? As Sandy Munro has said ad nauseam, choosing form the parts bin rather than optimizing for the application produces bad choices.
[Aerospace is instructive: Does anybody want a Boeing 737MAX with control systems from 1967 and manual cable controls with automated actuation, sometimes?]. Thus the Tesla approach really is First Principles. They do not reinvent something that is already evolving and improving. Do invent something if it can be better done in a new way.

All that is a verbose way of saying that Tesla will make small vehicles in ways that seem unlikely today. What they'll be we can speculate. We do know that the new smaller vehicles will astonish us in wonderful ways. Among those I am convinced will be versions that will delight many different markets in many different ways. Of course they already know CKD from Tilburg. That won't be the first choice but it will happen for large differentiated markets. Where? India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and so on. As this evolves we may be assured it will not be traditional CKD, but will involve sourcing various parts near sources of their required ingredients. Tesla has been planning those things for quite a while. A cursory examination of Tesla travels during the last couple of years suggest some of these locations.

In sum, it is very shortsighted to think the 'China designed vehicle' is singular or even a vehicle.
Question: what country has arranged the best sourcing of critical materials used in solar panels, electronics and batteries?
Question 2: in what country is Tesla's largest operating factories?
Question 3: From what country come the most reliable;e Tesla suppliers?

As we recently have heard it seems the Audi and Porsche BEV's share the same battery pack but do not share the AC charge controller.

Once again, I find myself piggybacking on another excellent post out of Jardim Botânico (you’re not in Horto, I’ll assume….) -
to place emphasis on the non-US realm of the automotive industry.

During one of my several sojourns as an academic into Japan, I had the unexpected, immense good fortune to enjoy an extended stay with a Certain Family. It is - or was - rare enough to be invited into a Japanese home, let alone stay overnight, not to mention stay for more than a week.
And this was to the home of someone with a name known to all Japanese; he was the head of one of the country’s more legendary corporations, whose name he shared.
In a home on about 1-1.5 acres (this is JAPAN!); and, in one of the most egalitarian post-WWII societies, with not one (hyper-rare as that was), but three live-in servants.

That stage being set: Mrs. X obviously could drive any vehicle she desired. What she did drive was a Honda Accord. Small, safe, suitable for urban Japanese streets. That is: sensible.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You mean like this? Elon's ex-girl friend is one of the stars of "Westworld".

BTW, they have a futuristic eVTOL cab too. Just not in Elon's roadmap just yet, I think.

Cheers!

It's likely way better than how kids are transported to school by bus still today, (no seatbelts, and moms be OK with that?

The public view of transport changes drastically when FSD data is properly tied to insurance and lawsuits, and the value is $ crystal clear for the consumer. And the safest car in motion will have zero occupants (vs with a driver) and therefore zero injury will occur half the time. In theory, it should cost more to take the wheel. When exactly the public realizes Tesla already crossed that threshold, is up to the politics and wallets.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

You mean like this? Elon's ex-girl friend is one of the stars of "Westworld".

BTW, they have a futuristic eVTOL cab too. Just not in Elon's roadmap just yet, I think.

Cheers!

Saw it and liked it! But a lot bigger than 2 cubic meters, no?

The default capacity of the personal transport device is one person, so a lot smaller, think motorized wheel-chair on steroids, wrapped in bubble of some kind of composite material. Crazy, I know.
Too crazy for right now, but maybe be in 2-3 decades, when young people grow up used to AIs being good and trustworthy servants.

As an intermediate step, a sub 25K car could be made as jbcarioca suggested with one or perhaps two big castings. (There seems to be a hard limit to what sizes can be reliably cast. Tesla will push those limits, but still...) .
Being made of metal, it will appeal to more traditionally minded people. It would weigh and cost more than the extreme future 'wheel-chair' PTD described above, but such a micro-car would be very inexpensive. And it would resemble a car more than the PTD would, so less of a mental hoop to jump through.

Such a mini Tesla would be even smaller than the Wuling mini EV, but safer: Teslas DNA doesn't tolerate unsafe cars.
(Re. naming: PTD or POD is a bit lame, but "Tesla One" has a nice ring to it.)