Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Elon still responding to Bernie. This one a little more tactful.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471581040426860549

I think this is my all time favourite Elon tweet.

 

[ZachF]

They are accelerating some of their expenses, but I think you are purely looking at the number and size of the losses, not the margin. I expect the numbers on the loss to grow and grow significantly, but they will start narrowing the margins. Right now it is basically a complete loss. As they get production that will narrow and the financials will look better than now (they really can't look much worse).

Financials beyond cash flow and cash in the bank are not really critical to Rivian right now. The critical thing for them is getting volume production. They need to get to 20k run rates within 6 months and 50-75k within 12. Once they are there, then the financials beyond cash will start to matter. That is why the few hundred short of the awfully low 1200 is a bad sign as it means they are already falling behind their 55k by the end of 2023... which I think is already too slow for them to survive. IMO they'll need 30k in 22 and 70k in 23 to survive on the cash they have now. That said, there is a solid chance they could live off secondary offerings to survive a slow ramp.

Honestly, we probably won’t get a real good picture into Rivian until another quarter or two… they are heavily incentivized to throw as much crap at this quarter as they can.

 

[mltv]

Isn't being the "VP, of Global Innovation at GM" like being the "VP, of Integrity at NKLA" ?

Yes. And Dan Ammann is responsible for Cruise acquisition. I guess you don't want to be responsible for any acquisition/partnership at GM right now. Now who's responsible for the battery tech ULTIUM.

 

[Singuy]

Early years of Tesla's production can be seen as a series of increasingly large J curves with Model S production rolling into X then rolling into 3. Tesla made 1 quarter of profit because the S had reached "volume" production and the big spending on the X hadn't started yet.

Rivian is basically attempting to charge head first into a Model 3/Y ramp with the R1T and Amazon van without the backing of an equivalent S/X product to mitigate the losses.

If it works for Rivian they will be in a strong position - but there is a long way to go before they get to the upward slope of the J curve. I hope it works out for them but I'm certainly not going to be an investor until there is more clarity they are hitting their volumes.

like any vehicle startup - which inherently has high operating leverage - They just need to make more cars.

Are they really? Their guidance for 2023 doesn't say 250k trucks but no better than Model S's volume by the end of their 2nd year of ramping.

So to me they are behind Tesla on ramping and guided for Model S volume ramp..so why do they need 10k employees at this moment in time again?

 

[Ogre]

Rivian doesn't have this luxury since they are not the first mover and there are plenty of competitors. Investors give them lots of $$ to make big bets. Now they have to figure out how to go about to make wise big bets.

They aren’t really a late mover so much as a lethargic mover. They’ve been “at this” for 12 years. They’ve owned their factory in Normal for 4 years.

 

[MC3OZ]

Bbbbbuut bbbuut Cruise is only one permit away from customer rides in San Francisco! Mary said and Mary led.

I‘m sure it’s nothing. Not like FSD’s progress is making any of these AV CEO’s realize their solution is not scalable even if it’s workable. Nah, probably needed a more challenging career.

Good back in time 2-3 years, it looked like Cruise had a reasonable strategy, and that they were a contender.

What we are seeing now is that FSD is harder than it seems, early progress is no guarantee of a final solution, there may only be one way to do it.

It is looking more and more like a serious competitor to Tesla is unlikely..

When we come to the Chinese competition, again some of their early progress looks good, but what is going on behind the curtain?

If it is this hard for Tesla to get FSD to work, considering the calibre of the team, the fleet size, the data and the resources available.
What chance doe anyone else have?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think this is my all time favourite Elon tweet.

Don't know if anybody else noticed this, but Elon is picking up about 100K twitter subscribers per day right now. Currently at 66.7M, Elon's Armee...

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Label and file this experience under the topic: 'FOMO'.

The Lesson? "There will be more Opportunities".

We are riding the Lower-BB to fill the gap. That's how those hedgies roll, and you can bank on it.

Cheers!

We're definitely filling the gap tomorrow.

I'm more curious do we test the 100-day moving average on Monday. It'll be around 875 tomorrow and 880 on Monday. Would also mark 30% sell off from the high. Odds are I'll just pull the trigger tomorrow, especially if we actually hit 875/share even though there's still Christmas week ahead which could be a doozy.

Crazy to think I'll get a chance at more LEAPS at this level after just being at 1,200 a month ago.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

We're definitely filling the gap tomorrow.

I'm more curious do we test the 100-day moving average on Monday. It'll be around 875 tomorrow and 880 on Monday. Would also mark 30% sell off from the high. Odds are I'll just pull the trigger tomorrow, especially if we actually hit 875/share even though there's still Christmas week ahead which could be a doozy.

Crazy to think I'll get a chance at more LEAPS at this level after just being at 1,200 a month ago.

If Elon sells tomorrow or Monday, we are in the 800's guaranteed.

If Elon sells tomorrow AND Monday, then that's gonna be one humongous lump of coal for Christmas.

 

[tivoboy]

I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m pretty sure Elons fund was a seller today.. when will we know?

 

[EVDRVN]

I think this is my all time favourite Elon tweet.

He may be learning.

 

[woodisgood]

Good back in time 2-3 years, it looked like Cruise had a reasonable strategy, and that they were a contender.

What we are seeing now is that FSD is harder than it seems, early progress is no guarantee of a final solution, there may only be one way to do it.

It is looking more and more like a serious competitor to Tesla is unlikely..

When we come to the Chinese competition, again some of their early progress looks good, but what is going on behind the curtain?

If it is this hard for Tesla to get FSD to work, considering the calibre of the team, the fleet size, the data and the resources available.
What chance doe anyone else have?

In a world where Tesla’s FSD doesn’t exist, it’s very possible geofenced LIDARmobiles could work, especially in certain metropolitan areas. The problem for these companies is that their solutions will be far more expensive than Tesla’s to implement and operate, rendering them obsolete before they even get started.

So you can still have faith in your tech and approach, but realize it won’t stack up competitively to a generalized solution in the long-run. That generalized solution is starting to look more and more like it will work. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not in a month…but soon.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If Elon sells tomorrow or Monday, we are in the 800's guaranteed.

If Elon sells tomorrow AND Monday, then that's gonna be one humongous lump of coal for Christmas.

Well Elon's not selling on a Friday so there's no point in speculating on that. It's clear though the stock is going to fill the gap and hit 900 tomorrow.

As for Monday, I don't think even Elon's sells would counter act the buying interest of TSLA at it's 100 day moving average. Sorry but I don't really buy the thought process that buyers won't step in at any price until Elon's scheduled sells are done. At a certain point, fundamentals do overpower momentum and I think the 100-day won't be broken in any material way.

If we were still a month away from P/D numbers, sure. But we're 9 trading days away from P/D numbers. If we dip below 900 tomorrow I'll do my stock for LEAPS trade and won't second guess it one bit next week.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Well Elon's not selling on a Friday so there's no point in speculating on that. It's clear though the stock is going to fill the gap and hit 900 tomorrow.

As for Monday, I don't think even Elon's sells would counter act the buying interest of TSLA at it's 100 day moving average. Sorry but I don't really buy the thought process that buyers won't step in at any price until Elon's scheduled sells are done. At a certain point, fundamentals do overpower momentum and I think the 100-day won't be broken in any material way.

If we were still a month away from P/D numbers, sure. But we're 9 trading days away from P/D numbers. If we dip below 900 tomorrow I'll do my stock for LEAPS trade and won't second guess it one bit next week.

I'm thinking of trading tomorrow as well but Wall Street aren't always dummies, they know that the fire sale will continue until Elon is done so why bother buying when it's still going to go down? I mean sure I know front-running exists but there is no rational reason to front-run something like this and so nobody is. I would like to be wrong about this but I suspect I am not.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm thinking of trading tomorrow as well but Wall Street aren't always dummies, they know that the fire sale will continue until Elon is done so why bother buying when it's still going to go down? I mean sure I know front-running exists but there is no rational reason to front-run something like this and so nobody is. I would like to be wrong about this but I suspect I am not.

Well what I'm saying is that I think the 100-day average, around 880 on Monday will be the point at which buyers will step in, regardless of the status of Elon's sells. Maybe there's a couple intraday drops below that 880 level to say 850-860 next week. Hedge funds might continue to try and front run, but instead of getting little to know buying resistance, they'll be flooded with big buy orders.

Wall St is a game of chicken between each other. I think at 880/share (and especially at 850/share), many hedge funds/large investors are going to blink and start buying and that will kick off FOMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well Elon's not selling on a Friday so there's no point in speculating on that. It's clear though the stock is going to fill the gap and hit 900 tomorrow.

If Elon does any sales tomorrow, it'd likely be during the closing cross. Remember, tomorrow is both the S&P 500 rebalance date AND a triple-witching Friday for Options contract expiries.

Could be some After-hrs sales, too.

 

[Boomer19]

I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m pretty sure Elons fund was a seller today.. when will we know?

no filings yet, although there’s still plenty of time

 

[juanmedina]

Well Elon's not selling on a Friday so there's no point in speculating on that. It's clear though the stock is going to fill the gap and hit 900 tomorrow.

As for Monday, I don't think even Elon's sells would counter act the buying interest of TSLA at it's 100 day moving average. Sorry but I don't really buy the thought process that buyers won't step in at any price until Elon's scheduled sells are done. At a certain point, fundamentals do overpower momentum and I think the 100-day won't be broken in any material way.

If we were still a month away from P/D numbers, sure. But we're 9 trading days away from P/D numbers. If we dip below 900 tomorrow I'll do my stock for LEAPS trade and won't second guess it one bit next week.

what LEAPS are you looking at?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

what LEAPS are you looking at?

I want to be on the more conservative side than the risky, so looking at Jan 2024 $1,000 or maybe the $1,200. But if anyone has their eyes on some that are particularly well priced, please share

 

[woodisgood]

I want to be on the more conservative side than the risky, so looking at Jan 2024 $1,000 or maybe the $1,200. But if anyone has their eyes on some that are particularly well priced, please share

I’ve been planning on adding the 1200c if we drop into the 800s.