Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

It'll get raised as it always does at the end.

It for sure will get raised over the next two months, especially when Q1 P/D numbers come out.

But again, and I hate to be that guy that keeps repeating a slogan......but the scale of Tesla's earnings are starting to actually matter in terms of how the valuation is looked at from investors.

If the EPS estimates get raised too much, well then 2022 EPS estimates have to be raised a lot. And considering Tesla is going to easily post EPS of $3+, estimates not only have to come up....but come up by a large amount. And even then, if Tesla does 350k in deliveries for Q1, you're probably looking at EPS of $ 3.25-3.40.

 

[growler23]

If you ban natural gas, you effectively ban fracking. Since the Legislature has already forbid municipailites to ban fracking, going after NG is their only alternative. Also NG is no longer the preferred fuel for cooking since induction cooktops have made the scene (just the same as gas cars are no longer the preferred method of transportation).

Last post on this for me since it is getting somewhat OT... some municipalities are banning natural gas from new home construction, since homes survive 100+ years, so by plumbing in NG they are therefore either locking in NG demand for a century, or setting themselves up for massive rework in a few years, both of which seem dumb. Texas legislature has now restricted any developer from banning NG when considering building a new neighborhood.

<Why am I picturing the Balrog lassoing Gandalf's leg as it starts to fall?>

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't think it's important to follow QQQ exactly, but just these technical patterns are giving green lights to all that money sitting on the sidelines. So what we don't have are these gigantic red days ahead dragging any good news down. So tesla may be flat when everyone is having a party, or we may have a party with everyone else. But the point is, now there are parties.

No need to follow it at all, I'm just thinking this crushes the trade for QQQ bears and that's 40% of the pressure we've been under since Jan 3. That flips the direction and will trigger self-reinforcing covering.

As you say, there's a TON of cash on the sidelines. Outflows from these ETFs we're astronomical the last week or two. With this battle likely in the rearview, that money all piles back in and then some.

Not only that.....I'd even argue FB's drop is helpful in ending this tech rotation. Their earnings were actually quite high, so the thing that dropped was really the PE ratio of FB, and therefore QQQ. The argument for a further tech compression was already weaker, even before AMZN mega blowout.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

If we close above 352 tomorrow, then we have the higher low the technical people are looking for. And looks like AH we blasted through resistance at 360 so even more good news.

Quoting joker here: It's all part of the plan

QQQ has an impact on TSLA (although there are also many days, like today, when there is less correlation). But that does not mean we need a technical analysis of QQQ every hour, which is what happened today. Please show more restraint.

 

[tivoboy]

$27/share for AMZN is physically impossible. For real?

Every once and a while then can turn OFF the OPEX tap and turn ON the earnings spigot… My bet was, with the first FULL QTR of a new CEO they weren’t going to let it be a fail. That bet seemed to have worked.

 

[henchman24]

It for sure will get raised over the next two months, especially when Q1 P/D numbers come out.

But again, and I hate to be that guy that keeps repeating a slogan......but the scale of Tesla's earnings are starting to actually matter in terms of how the valuation is looked at from investors.

If the EPS estimates get raised too much, well then 2022 EPS estimates have to be raised a lot. And considering Tesla is going to easily post EPS of $3+, estimates not only have to come up....but come up by a large amount. And even then, if Tesla does 350k in deliveries for Q1, you're probably looking at EPS of $ 3.25-3.40.

I don't disagree that they'll have to be raised and Tesla will still beat massively. I'm around 15-17 EPS for 22 (feel it is pretty conservative too) and the street will have to come up 50% to match that. That will have a substantial impact at some point on the stock. That said, the market hasn't quite figured out the multiple to use on Tesla yet. For most of last year we have seen the market price Tesla at 100-120x consensus FY+1 EPS. That has compressed to ~60x now and 23 EPS consensus is so far off it is hysterical right now. When the market figures out the valuation it wants to place on future expectations, we should see Tesla rocket.

 

[WADan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489347853097000966

Hey, at this point I’d take any kind of a beat, however small as it might reverse this funk!

 

[pz1975]

This is more of a general post but it does relate to TSLA.

I have never seen such insane volatility in mega cap stocks around earnings before. Usually a 5% move is quite significant for AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOGL etc., but there have been many with 15-25% moves in a day. TSLA has routine up or down moves of 10% lately.

Should we be concerned that this is a harbinger of a serious bear market? I wasn’t in the market in 2007-08 - does anyone remember if there was crazy volatility like this just before the big sell-off started? I realize that past events can’t predict the future but I’m just trying to assess the significance of these now routine unprecedented moves in large cap stocks.

 

[2daMoon]

... When the market figures out the valuation it wants to place on future expectations, we should see Tesla rocket.

Some may not realize just how much I like seeing a Tesla rocket!

2daMoon

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't disagree that they'll have to be raised and Tesla will still beat massively. I'm around 15-17 EPS for 22 (feel it is pretty conservative too) and the street will have to come up 50% to match that. That will have a substantial impact at some point on the stock. That said, the market hasn't quite figured out the multiple to use on Tesla yet. For most of last year we have seen the market price Tesla at 100-120x consensus FY+1 EPS. That has compressed to ~60x now and 23 EPS consensus is so far off it is hysterical right now. When the market figures out the valuation it wants to place on future expectations, we should see Tesla rocket.

I agree with that. Q4 earnings were going to be that needed spark but then we got hit by a flood of one-time hits. If those hadn't been there, EPS been $3. So now we have to wait until Q1 earnings

 

[Artful Dodger]

not me

I heard el Gordo has concerns. And JPMoargas... /s

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Yep Change.org website implements auto-incrementing/self-distancing goal post.

It is a well tested strategy, just think about messaging on pandemic measures over the last 2 years

and it is a lie.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Should we be concerned that this is a harbinger of a serious bear market? I wasn’t in the market in 2007-08 - does anyone remember if there was crazy volatility like this just before the big sell-off started?

No, this is what Ralph Nader meant when he told CNBC back in Jan 2020 that "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

He weren't wrong! (Wall St. hedgies now addicted to the crack cocaine of options manipulation). Too bad ol'Ralphie didn't give a date. I'd like to have a suit pressed for the event...

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

QQQ has an impact on TSLA (although there are also many days, like today, when there is less correlation). But that does not mean we need a technical analysis of QQQ every hour, which is what happened today. Please show more restraint.

Sometimes I quickly scroll through 10 pages of posts only reading the Mods "different-colored" mods' posts to make sure I am not missing much.
Keep up the good work guys..and girls( if there is one?)

 

[Sofie]

No, this is what Ralph Nader meant when he told CNBC back in Jan 2020 that "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

He weren't wrong! (Wall St. hedgies now addicted to the crack cocaine of options manipulation). Too bad ol'Ralphie didn't give a date. I'd like to have a suit pressed for the event...

Cheers!

What did he mean by that? "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

 

[lafrisbee]

I have been trying to understand the stock market by looking at everything TSLA does.
IF there is manipulation by professionals to fleece weak and unintelligent owners of TSLA (whether legal or not), then wouldn't it be our job to NOT talk about how good a stock TSLA is So the easily influenced won't keep buying it?

 

[StealthP3D]

Shadowstats, if I saw it correctly, estimates inflation at about 15%, which seems accurate to what I'm seeing in my personal budget.

You still have a personal budget???

 

[Artful Dodger]

What did he mean by that? "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

Well, I think Ralph meant “Hill of Megiddo”, but I think that's a tad dramatic. I'd say, China Syndrome, at worst. More likely, dirty fizzle...

Cheers to the Long (lived isotopes)!

 

[Discoducky]

No, this is what Ralph Nader meant when he told CNBC back in Jan 2020 that "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

He weren't wrong! (Wall St. hedgies now addicted to the crack cocaine of options manipulation). Too bad ol'Ralphie didn't give a date. I'd like to have a suit pressed for the event...

Cheers!

Funny, he said that when TSLA was $100B market cap.

Now he says EM is a dynamo! Ralph Nader Can't Slow Down

 

[WattsHappening]

Couple of observations:

1. Given how pessimistic everyone seemed to be about AMZN earnings, I'm not at all surprised they beat expectations (even excluding RIVN). Stock market regularly zigs when we expect it to zag.
2. I thank those of you who continue to drive home that TSLA numbers are going to make it impossible for Wall Street to ignore. Yes, P/E compression is real, and in the past, this could have put us down for a long count. But the denominator is growing fast. First, analysts are going to have to play catch up to earnings expectations. Then the numerator is going to have to also play catch-up.
3. I'm hopeful you guys are right about tomorrow and near future. But the current poor market sentiment makes me hesitate to buy in. Call me cautiously optimistic short term. But wildly optimistic long term.