Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

800 will likely be the bottom (maybe a small dip below).
Why?

I only have NYSE LVL2 Market data. But we have ~75k shares buy-ordered at 800. ALL sell-orders i can see (at NYSE) in TOTAL up to 1000 (i left out those fantasy 8k+ orders ) are only 65k on the sell-side.

Nothing MM can't dip throuh - but will be expensive. So i guess we get further attempts at breaking 800 to then collect all shares from people having stop-losses at those big-round-numbers. We very often see this with MM in control. Naked short to create a dip that let the stop-losses fire, cover the shorts at 2-3$ difference within seconds/minutes. Transferring money from retail to MM

But now that i wrote it we will surely fall through 800 like butter & hit 720 or something crazy.. :/

Those buy orders can vanish quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How in the world can an order that does NOT execute, affect the stock? It’s nuts that people can manipulate the stock at literally no cost to them.

GIYF.

How it Works: Order Spoofing, Part Two – Spoofing In The Small Cap Sector

JP Morgan's $920 million fine for having manipulated gold markets with order spoofing was widely ridiculed by observers and deserved

thedeepdive.ca

 

[Stars aligned]

To all the hopefuls here:

This is not about Putin and Ukraine. This is not about MM's and the evil Hedge Funds. This is not TSLA specific or only insofar as TSLA has been the most overhyped stock in the last years.

This bear market is just about the tightening financial conditions and the subsequently changed narrative. US equities in private hands is the highest since 2000, and private hands are weak hands. Call buyers are even weaker hands because calls will expire worthless and the underlying hedge will be sold into a weak market. Think about it.

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I've said this again and again. Understandably, not many will be able to swallow this.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, what, war's over?

 

[Mengy]

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I disagree, the best time to load up was yesterday. Buy every chance you get and simply hold for 5+ years.

 

[elasalle]

To all the hopefuls here:

This is not about Putin and Ukraine. This is not about MM's and the evil Hedge Funds. This is not TSLA specific or only insofar as TSLA has been the most overhyped stock in the last years.

This bear market is just about the tightening financial conditions and the subsequently changed narrative. US equities in private hands is the highest since 2000, and private hands are weak hands. Call buyers are even weaker hands because calls will expire worthless and the underlying hedge will be sold into a weak market. Think about it.

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I've said this again and again. Understandably, not many will be able to swallow this.

The vectors that affect the markets are many and they include
1. tightening of financial conditions
2. inflation worries
3. Ukraine (market started to feel the impact since last week)
4. MM - they take advantage when they can

buy the DIP, SIP, SIP, SIP and wait for it to RIP ...

cheers!!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Germany: "We are very concerned about global warming! Somebody help!"

Tesla: "We will build a massive EV factory near Berlin to to help slow global warming"

Germany: "Yeah but future global warming means we can only give water rights to the most worthwhile projects. Not sure about your slow global warming project"

Germany literally scaled solar globally. By themselves. And to a lesser degree wind. All from just 2000 to 2010. Eating the entire cost themselves. They're single-handedly responsible for everyone on the planet having access to cheap renewables.

Hearing Americans rant about Germany and Europe while we drive SUVs and eat twinkies......hurts my brain.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Germany: "We are very concerned about global warming! Somebody help!"

Tesla: "We will build a massive EV factory near Berlin to to help slow global warming"

Germany: "Yeah but future global warming means we can only give water rights to the most worthwhile projects. Not sure about your slow global warming project"

I wish folks had brought this water concern to Arizona and the Southwest 20 yrs ago, but here we are expanding like crazy - still.
In Germany, I'm sure there's a few golf courses that could take care of this gap. In fact, let's put the next one on a golf course! (I don't golf clearly.) Could it save water? OT alert...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cheer up all....at least we held the $800 line......although i would say the same thing if it was $790, $780....$750....greener days are ahead.....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To all the hopefuls here:

This is not about Putin and Ukraine. This is not about MM's and the evil Hedge Funds. This is not TSLA specific or only insofar as TSLA has been the most overhyped stock in the last years.

This bear market is just about the tightening financial conditions and the subsequently changed narrative. US equities in private hands is the highest since 2000, and private hands are weak hands. Call buyers are even weaker hands because calls will expire worthless and the underlying hedge will be sold into a weak market. Think about it.

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I've said this again and again. Understandably, not many will be able to swallow this.

Just to be clear, now that Tesla is throwing off billions in profits every quarter........everyone's going to sell? That seems a bit counterintuitive to me.

You're gonna have a tough time selling that narrative. We've been invested for long stretches of time where the very existence of the company was teetering from quarter to quarter.

Last I checked, all investors are eventually interested in siphoning profits off obscene earnings. Perhaps that will change when the 10yr crosses 3%, but I doubt it.

 

[Maddin0r]

Germany literally scaled solar globally. By themselves. And to a lesser degree wind. All from just 2000 to 2010. Eating the entire cost themselves. They're single-handedly responsible for everyone on the planet having access to cheap renewables.

Hearing Americans rant about Germany and Europe while we drive SUVs and eat twinkies......hurts my brain.

As a German who was working in the renewable energy sector at the time, I can only confirm that.
Prices of solar panels went down crazy at these years, mostly because of our EEG act.

 

[PeterJA]

...Consider that a working, energy-producing fusion reactor just happened....

This statement startled me because if true it would be huge news and a threat to Tesla Energy. However, it is not true, according to a New Scientist article from last week:

...The team trained the AI on a precise digital simulation of the reactor before conducting experiments on the real machine. Ultimately, it was able to successfully contain the plasma for around 2 seconds, which is approaching the limits of the reactor – TCV can only sustain the plasma in a single experiment for up to 3 seconds, after which it needs 15 minutes to cool down. The record for fusion reactors is only 5 seconds, set recently by the Joint European Torus in the UK....​

​

Gianluca Sarri at Queen’s University Belfast, UK, says that AI is key to the future of control systems for fusion reactors, which have yet to sustain a reaction that produces more power than is consumed....​

 

[Wooloomooloo]

This statement startled me because if true it would be huge news and a threat to Tesla Energy.

Now you know how big oil and legacy car makers think.

 

[mongo]

GIYF.

How it Works: Order Spoofing, Part Two – Spoofing In The Small Cap Sector

JP Morgan's $920 million fine for having manipulated gold markets with order spoofing was widely ridiculed by observers and deserved

thedeepdive.ca

@SO16 How It Works: JPM Precious Metals Fined For Order Spoofing

It's not the orders themselves, it's putting apparent demand on the opposite side of the desired transaction to entice people to execute on that side to get the spoofer more favorable pricing. i.e. using other's greed.

Spoiler: Examples

X want to sell and creates a lot of buy orders below the current bid (so they don't execute).

Repeat
This looks like demand, so others front run by buying, expecting the price to rise, or even to sell back to X once they raise their bid.
This raises the price
X moves the bids up (but still below market/ top bid).
/Repeat

Once the price is high enough (or ahead of time?), X enters a sell order.
As soon as the sell goes through, all the bids are cancelled.

Working in this system, capping looks like this:
X wants to buy
Puts in large sell orders
Others sell to front run, expecting the price to drop
X buys at some point and cancels the sell orders

 

[UncaNed]

rolled all my remaining TSLA common stock into Sep 2022 500 calls between $801-803 for +50% more deltas

Incredibly risky IMHO. I'm not letting go of my HODLIN' shares for anything. Especially not anything expiring that soon. I fool around with options a lot, and personally, I consider September to be right around the corner, and don't Deltas work both ways?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This statement startled me because if true it would be huge news and a threat to Tesla Energy.

Why would fusion be a threat to Tesla Energy? It's precisely the missing piece. A technology that can efficiently, even if wildly expensively, generate 20-30% of total energy demand fills the renewables gap perfectly. Tesla Energy ties it all together and manages the flow.

We need to get our minds out of the fossil fuels scarcity model. There will be no scarcity in 2030, it's all about who delivers efficiency and scalable services to support sustainable abundance.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

As a German who was working in the renewable energy sector at the time, I can only confirm that.
Prices of solar panels went down crazy at these years, mostly because of our EEG act.

Boggles my mind that no one appreciates or even talks about the progress EEG was able to achieve. The almost universal willingness of Germans to pay a bit more now in order to scale something for the whole planet was an amazing thing to behold.

If an American was paying $.32/kWh and you asked him to temporarily support $.64/kWh for solar and wind, he'd punch you right in der hodensack.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

To all the hopefuls here:

This is not about Putin and Ukraine. This is not about MM's and the evil Hedge Funds. This is not TSLA specific or only insofar as TSLA has been the most overhyped stock in the last years.

This bear market is just about the tightening financial conditions and the subsequently changed narrative. US equities in private hands is the highest since 2000, and private hands are weak hands. Call buyers are even weaker hands because calls will expire worthless and the underlying hedge will be sold into a weak market. Think about it.

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I've said this again and again. Understandably, not many will be able to swallow this.

The fact that you think private/retail investors have any impact on the actual markets is probably the most laughable part of this post…..and there’s a lot to laugh at there.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The fact that you think private/retail investors have any impact on the actual markets is probably the most laughable part of this post…..and there’s a lot to laugh at there.

You mean there is absolute 0 correlation when TMC members decide to sell their positions and $TSLA SP goes up or vice versa when we buy and $TSLA SP goes down????

 

[SOULPEDL]

This statement startled me because if true it would be huge news and a threat to Tesla Energy. However, it is not true, according to a New Scientist article from last week:

...The team trained the AI on a precise digital simulation of the reactor before conducting experiments on the real machine. Ultimately, it was able to successfully contain the plasma for around 2 seconds, which is approaching the limits of the reactor – TCV can only sustain the plasma in a single experiment for up to 3 seconds, after which it needs 15 minutes to cool down. The record for fusion reactors is only 5 seconds, set recently by the Joint European Torus in the UK....​

​

Gianluca Sarri at Queen’s University Belfast, UK, says that AI is key to the future of control systems for fusion reactors, which have yet to sustain a reaction that produces more power than is consumed....​

I wonder how much water is needed to cool those down?
Just sayin'