Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Having just been in Las Vegas casinos last weekend, I can say at least that my investment brokerage doesn't hand me unlimited free alcohol and distract me with bright colors and pretty women while I'm making trades. I think the overall odds are better fighting Wall Street than casinos. At least I can win with an information advantage.

Make a dart board with the Nasdaq 100 stocks on it. Or the S&P 500. Throw a dart, put all your money in your tax-deferred account into the stock it lands on. The next week, throw another dart. Sell all your original stock and put it in the new stock. And so on. Yes, recognized stocks like the ones in the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500 tend to go up. You have positive odds of appreciation, rather than the negative odds at all casinos. Over time your returns should equal those of the index you chose.

Yes, the odds are with you in the stock market and against you in the casino. But that's not to say that any positive return is a good return. You want your assets to have the highest chances of compounding at the highest rate.

And no, on the information advantage, if by that you mean timing the market. This is the fallacy Wall Street wants you to believe.

 

[Tyler34]

Rivian Missed on both top and bottom line
54m revenue vs 61m expected
-4.83EPS vs -1.97 expected

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Rivian Missed on both top and bottom line
54m revenue vs 61m expected
-4.83EPS vs -1.97 expected

Wow the EPS miss is way bigger than expected

I knew when they rose prices by a ton and on existing orders that things were bad but this is worse than I thought it'd be

 

[Discoducky]

Rivian Missed on both top and bottom line
54m revenue vs 61m expected
-4.83EPS vs -1.97 expected

Q4 earnings PDF, let's hope this doesn't bring the EV stonks down tomorrow.

 

[Tyler34]

Wow the EPS miss is way bigger than expected

I knew when they rose prices by a ton and on existing orders that things were bad but this is worse than I thought it'd be

That was just for the quarter. -23EPS for full year 2021. Insane
And it took 22 pages of reading to find this number since they buried it so deep in the report

Edit: RIVN related

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q4 earnings PDF, let's hope this doesn't bring the EV stonks down tomorrow.

In reality, it should push a ton of money into TSLA. Though it may take Q1 earnings to really illustrate that point.

That was just for the quarter. -23EPS for full year 2021. Insane

Wow I hadn't even gotten to that part yet, still reading through the earnings

Btw......Ford's losses on it's earnings this quarter are going to be massive since they recognized their Rivian stake and Rivian's stock is going to end Q1 down like 70%.

 

[StealthP3D]

I've had to pay for my own booze this past few months while losing money though.

You've been selling off your TSLA and not telling us? Or, please explain, how have you been losing money?

 

[Singuy]

Rivian's Q4 operating expense: 2.071 billion
Tesla's Q4 operating expense: 2,234 billion

WTF is going on? How are the operating expenses off the charts as if they are delivering hundreds of thousands of trucks?

Looking at their guide of 2022, they are expecting a net Ebitda loss of 4,750 billion which is 3X more than Tesla's net Ebitda loss since inception combined of 1.559 billion!!@!@#.

 

[woodisgood]

Welcome to production hell, Rivian and its investors. We tried to warn you.

 

[UncaNed]

That was just for the quarter. -23EPS for full year 2021. Insane
And it took 22 pages of reading to find this number since they buried it so deep in the report

I'm as guilty of the occasional OT post as anybody, but IMHO all posts here about things NON-TESLA with data/specific details should include the SYMBOL OR DESCRIPTION for the benefit of the hapless TSLA investor quickly scanning the thread reading it out of context as being about TSLA.

Edit - Glad you fixed it @Tyler34 , but I'm more concerned that we consider this when hastily posting exciting dirt about competitors or whatever to save giving some old, gray-haired stressed out TMC member a more stressful day than he or she might otherwise deserve. Mentioned for the benefit of an old, gray-haired stressed out TMC member I happen to know of.

 

[Tyler34]

I'm as guilty of the occasional OT post as anybody, but IMHO all posts here about things NON-TESLA with data/specific details should include the SYMBOL OR DESCRIPTION for the benefit of the hapless TSLA investor quickly scanning the thread and read it out of context as being about TSLA?

fixed. I think all this LCID and RIVN monies should flow back into TSLA as people realize that its not near as easy as tesla made it look.

 

[Gigapress]

Make a dart board with the Nasdaq 100 stocks on it. Or the S&P 500. Throw a dart, put all your money in your tax-deferred account into the stock it lands on. The next week, throw another dart. Sell all your original stock and put it in the new stock. And so on. Yes, recognized stocks like the ones in the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500 tend to go up. You have positive odds of appreciation, rather than the negative odds at all casinos. Over time your returns should equal those of the index you chose.

Yes, the odds are with you in the stock market and against you in the casino. But that's not to say that any positive return is a good return. You want your assets to have the highest chances of compounding at the highest rate.

And no, on the information advantage, if by that you mean timing the market. This is the fallacy Wall Street wants you to believe.

Right.

By information advantage I was referring to the possibility of finding underpriced long term bets on stocks and LEAPs, whereas at a casino even though it's regulated and transparent, the expected value of every possible gamble is negative.

 

[Buckminster]

So...

• Estimates of 345k Q1 production
  • 2022 deliveries easily could be around 2 million at this rate
• Oil prices driving massive increase in demand for Teslas, resulting in doubling of the daily order rate.
  • We already were amidst a profound awakening to the desirability of EVs before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Here were my scenarios posted on Jan 7th. If these two rumors are true the bull case prediction may be closest to accurate. I'm glad I bought 2023 call options.

	Bear	Base	Bull
Deliveries	1.5M	1.7M	2.0M
Avg Price	$57k	$60k	$63k
Gross Margin	31%	34%	37%
Operating Expenses	$9B	$8B	$7B
EBIT	$18B	$27B	$39B

Relevant TMC predictions:

Your best guess at how many cars Tesla will make/produce in 2022 total!

 

[StealthP3D]

Welcome to production hell, Rivian and its investors. We tried to warn you.

Rivian shares down to $35 in After Hours trading. Wasn't it just a couple of months ago investors were clamoring to pay three times this much? It made no sense. I guess a lot of people with real money really did believe RIVN was the next TSLA.

But I guess that's understandable once you know how stupid the average person is. And that's before you realize half the people are even stupider than average!

 

[Singuy]

Welcome to production hell, Rivian and its investors. We tried to warn you.

Rivian's production is hell of a lot better than Lucid.

But their cost is laughable. They need to fire the CEO and restructure ASAP before the company is worth less than zero.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Rivian shares down to $35 in After Hours trading. Wasn't it just a couple of months ago investors were clamoring to pay three times this much? It made no sense. I guess a lot of people with real money really did believe RIVN was the next TSLA.

But I guess that's understandable once you know how stupid the average person is. And that's before you realize half the people are even stupider than average!

Not stupid. Just not informed correctly (which could go back to birth for some).

 

[Kenypowa]

Rivian shares down to $35 in After Hours trading. Wasn't it just a couple of months ago investors were clamoring to pay three times this much? It made no sense. I guess a lot of people with real money really did believe RIVN was the next TSLA.

But I guess that's understandable once you know how stupid the average person is. And that's before you realize half the people are even stupider than average!

First it was Nio, Ride, then NKLA, LCID and now RIVN.

I wonder which side lost more money. The ones that bet on the "next TSLA", or the dumbasses that shorted TSLA.

 

[Mengy]

Rivian Missed on both top and bottom line
54m revenue vs 61m expected
-4.83EPS vs -1.97 expected

That's not entirely surprising, they haven't delivered much at all yet to customers. All these delays will have a huge negative effect on them financially.

Just remember, Tesla used to have bad quarters too.

 

[bkp_duke]

fixed. I think all this LCID and RIVN monies should flow back into TSLA as people realize that its not near as easy as tesla made it look.

If only. The problem is there is a perception that TSLA is "expensive" because it is in the $800s. We know better, but there are a lot of not-so-bright investors that have this mentality and won't invest for that reason.

 

[Curt Renz]

A Connecticut zoning commission favors monopolistic owner of 10 car dealerships over Tesla and American free competitive enterprise:

Teslarati - today: Tesla Service Center permit revoked due to local dealership concern over direct sales