Your best guess at how many cars Tesla will make/produce in 2022 total!

[Discoducky]

With 2+ more factories opening, this coming year is going to be epic. Yeah, might see a Semi factory as well as Austin and Berlin!

Will be fun to revisit this thread next year!

Poll closes just after midnight new years eve (pacific) and votes are public!

 

[heltok]

1555555

I think they will end the year around 300k/q. Then Berlin and Austin will add 150k each and Shanghai and Freemont will catch up with 300k/q average pace rather than end of year sprint. Plus a little extra S/X for a total of 55555(because it sounds funny in thai)

 

[petit_bateau]

I split the difference on my base case (1,450,264) and the high case that has Shanghai doing 1m and so the total becoming 1,770,000+ (the + because LFP packs can also cause upside surprises at the other plants), voting for 1.6-1.7 as the middleish-point.

 

[jeewee3000]

I voted between 1.4M and 1.5M (but that's my base case).

The floor is the current quarterly production x 4 = 285k x4 = 1.14M

Then you have Austin and Berlin starting their ramp, and Fremont and Shangai adding capacity also.

However, I'm a little more pessimistic regarding Austin and Berlin production than some bulls out there. H1 of 2022 will see very little production from those factories IMO.

But hey, I'd love to be proven wrong.

2023 on the other had is going to be absolutely bananas. I think the steep part of the S-curve (Berlin/Austin) will lie around Q4 2022 so the run rates will increase greatly then, resulting in much higher production in 2023.

And I hope that, by the end of 2022, Tesla reveals plans for further production plants, so that they can build these in 2023 and they start production in 2024, when the other production sites have matured.

 

[JustMe]

I’m a bit perplexed by the votes for 1-1.2 million vehicles produced. That roughly equals the expected Q4 2021 P&D number annualized.

This suggests those folks do not expect any production from GF Berlin or Austin in 2022… That would be bad

 

[Discoducky]

I’m a bit perplexed by the votes for 1-1.2 million vehicles produced. That roughly equals the expected Q4 2021 P&D number annualized.

This suggests those folks do not expect any production from GF Berlin or Austin in 2022… That would be bad

Yep, that is a bit odd, but hey, there's still time to change your guess!

 

[Doggydogworld]

I’m a bit perplexed by the votes for 1-1.2 million vehicles produced. That roughly equals the expected Q4 2021 P&D number annualized.

There are currently twice as many votes for 2m+.

 

[heltok]

There are currently twice as many votes for 2m+.

I think the vote distribution is not too different from the likelihood of outcomes. Things can happen, they are unlikely, but they do happen once in a while, that’s something we should have learned from the last 2 years... >2M is on the table, as is <1M. And I guess some people care more about being the only person being right, than giving a correct answer, which might even make rational sense as you win nothing by being one of the many guessing right.

 

[Mengy]

I think Tesla will produce 1.4 million vehicles in 2022:

475,000 in Fremont.
625,000 in Shanghai.
150,000 in Austin.
150,000 in Berlin.

I know a lot of people expect more than this, but my gut tells me the production ramp will be slower and more realistic due to all manner of obstacles. Like supply issues, battery source issues, covid, economic problems, etc.

It will be neat to see where all our predictions fall one year from now!

 

[Discoducky]

Shanghai December has blown me up, I think we'll be close to 1.8M! Vote cast!

 

[Discoducky]

Thank you to everyone who participated!

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