Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hilarious to me how pedictable the pattern of TSLA strongly outperforming on a red macro day followed by significantly underperforming the next day when macros are strongly green.

Capped right at the high that was set on Monday. They don't even try to hide it. As I write this, it popped above 940 to 942 and immediately hit with 3 consecutive sell orders

Of course, when I see this happening first thing I do is go check max pain for Call Walls and of course, there's a Call Wall at 950 this week. Maybe my complaining of how this stock trades will lead to a repeat of last week with the stock getting out of control from the MM’s fingertips?

 

[mars_or_bust]

Elon's speech and deliveries, I believe:

A cataclysmic day for bats and fireants everywhere

 

[jbcarioca]

I expect Giga Berlin to achieve a 1K/wk run-rate in April, then hold that through June until the 2nd shift is added. So minimum 2K/wk for 10 wks in Q3, then working up to 5K/wk for 10 wks in Q4 (production is limited by the max 5K/wk supply capacity / logistics for Shanghai/LG bty packs).

All told, I'd estimate at least 80K Models Y from Giga Berlin in 2022. Of course if things go well (esp. w. the supply chain) Berlin production could easily be 100K by year's end.

Tesla told us to expect the ramp-up at Berlin to be comparable to Shanghai. Tesla has a lot of experience now rolling out Model Y production: 1 line in Fremont, 2 lines in Shanghai, now simultaneously 1 more line in each of Texas and Berlin.

In Berlin, once all 8 Gigapresses are online and the 4680 cell factory is operational, numbers go up quickly. I expect Giga Berlin will get to their tgt 500K/yr run-rate some time before in 2023. Of course, we'll need a local supply of LFP packs soon for Europe...

Best of all, if the Germany authorites execute on their green commitments, we should also see Tesla break ground for Giga Berlin Phase 2 sometime next year. This could get really big (I'm still rooting for an LFP 'hot-hatch' aka Model Zwei).

Cheers!

The Hot hatch might have different chemistries too. I think we're likely top have some insight within six months or so, perhaps with Master Plan 3.

 

[2daMoon]

Deliveries begin!

Here we go!

(insert my username here)

 

[T@oo]

So wait.....does this mean Berlin won the race? Sad day for Texas.

Yes, so the Cat will spit out some angry hairballs.

 

[Nocturnal]

WS is still being way too conservative but every little bit helps.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506279556579274770

 

[AudubonB]

Maybe not. Putin wants ir back for Russia! How's your Russian?

Oh, all Alaska says “Come on over! We’ll show you what it really means to welcome you with open arms!”
There are, by the way, a very large number of Alaskans who speak Russian extremely well. And they all come from…..

Ukraine.

Separately, I DO have a really interesting photo somewhere. OT but it’s my thread and if I find it I’ll post it.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I was very skeptical that the bureaucracy and law suits would be resolved before the end of the first half of this year and that I'd be pleasantly surprised if there were any deliveries in first half as a result. I am very happy to be wrong! This is great! Giga Berlin FTW!!!

 

[UncaNed]

I ordered an X on December 9 2020 and finally got a VIN today. EDD is March 25-April 3. It is a 5 seater and up until recently the only X deliveries have been 6 seaters. Hopefully the X is ramping and can start to fulfill what must be a big backlog by now.

Long range or performance, @skybluecgreen ?

 

[saniflash]

data point: ordered a MYP (white ext/black int) three days ago for delivery to Germany (while waiting on my MS Plaid delivery in Switzerland). This was the only model/combination eligible for delivery in Apr.

Today received email that the car will come from Brandenburg

 

[CitizenKane]

CNBS LOVES GoJo. They either win b/c it looks like comic relief when he is on, or if he is ever right (ha ha ha), they look like geniuses for having him. They won't give him up.

This is getting ridiculous. Having one guy saying the earth is round and another saying it is flat is not providing the public with a good balanced view on things. There must be analysts who are less positive than Gene Munster but still grounded in reality.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Our friend Gordon is back. Bullish.

I feel bad that Gene is always placed opposite him.

They always place Gene against Gordo because they know Gene is a pushover in a debate type setting.

Ross has his faults but you put him in there and he feasts on Gordo

 

[Singuy]

Wasn't 937 the strong resistance tsla had problem breaking through for the past couple of months?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wasn't 937 the strong resistance tsla had problem breaking through for the past couple of months?

Yup, right around here was the local top multiple times - 937 twice in late Jan and then 925-930 multiple times in Feb. We've technically already broken it though because the local top was getting lower and lower (local top was 880 in early March and then 858 in Mid March).

Getting another attempt at a clear breakout above 940......let's see if it holds

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's speech and deliveries, I believe:

That was an epic speech by Elon. He really captured the mood zeitgeist of this new era! Here's a transcript via Youtube CC: (Elon Musk, Giga Berlin, March 22, 2022)

"I'm incredibly excited to hand over the first-production cars from our incredible team here at Giga Berlin.​

​

"This is a great day for the factory and I'd just like to thank everyone who helped. Thank you, thank you very much.​

​

"This really makes a very big difference to the community, and Tesla will make sure that this is a gemstone for the area, for Germany, for Europe, and for the World.​

​

"Now every every vehicle that we make will be another step in the direction of the sustainable energy future. We will also make battery storage, so this is going to be very important for storing renewable energy, for solar and wind. Because it's intermittent it needs to be stored.​

​

"But we are extremely confident that the World can transition to a sustainable energy future with the combination of solar and wind plus battery storage and electric vehicles. If you have those three legs of a stool then you can create a sustainable energy future for as long as the sun shines and the wind blows.​

​

"Sometimes people are sad about the future, or they think we won't solve sustainable energy, and maybe the climate issue is... it's too late, or something like that.​

​

"I really want to assure everyone that you can have hope in the future. You should have hope in the future. This problem will be solved and this factory is a major step in that direction so believe in the future.​

​

"Thank you."​

Well done, Sir!

Prost!

P.S. Did you notice how Elon quietly announced that Giga Berlin will expand to include Energy Storage products?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Capped right at the high that was set on Monday. They don't even try to hide it.

Ahem, u were saying?

Cheers!

PSA: Google Scholar - Treatments for PTSD

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ahem, u were saying?

View attachment 784387

Cheers!

PSA: Google Scholar - Treatments for PTSD

Haha it's taken a 2% up Nasdaq day just to break 940..........and even then it's only 944 right now. So a bit premature to say 940 is broken since if macro's pullback, there will be an attempt to cap it again

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wasn't 937 the strong resistance tsla had problem breaking through for the past couple of months?

Yup, pretty much. The 937 level is where we were 2 days before '21Q4 Earnings:

It'd be good to break out before '22Q1 Earnings. And of course, we're expecting the Q1 P&D Report after just 8 more trading sessions. So FOMO, let's ROLL!

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506290671438766085

Demand in China for Tesla's has gone wild. Now 20-24 weeks. And this is with more Shanghai production going to local sales going forward verses exports since Berlin is now ramping some. There will still be exports of course but the % of local sales to exports will be higher and higher as Berlin ramps.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, so the Cat will spit out some angry hairballs.