Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

what the hell was that $4 instant price drop?

Probably still the JP Morgan "downgrade" of Tesla.

Pre-market shrugged it off for the nonsense it indeed is, but I guess there are JP Morgan clients with no pre-market trading access - so their sell orders would execute in the morning.

As a reminder, this is Ryan Brinkman's TSLA ratings track record from Tipranks:

He seems to have a real talent at picking lows when downgrading Tesla, in a "sell low, buy high" strategy that averaged about -10%. (Plus losses from transaction costs.)

Especially the fact that he managed to issue many of his downgrades during larger drops is suggesting that the motivation of his Tesla downgrades is often to magnify short-term down-trends.

 

[Joe F]

what the hell was that $4 instant price drop?

A buying opportunity.

 

[brian45011]

what the hell was that $4 instant price drop?

"Daimler Trucks, a division of Daimler Group, said Friday it will acquire a majority stake in Torc Robotics for an undisclosed sum and plans to work on autonomous trucks, competing directly with Tesla (TSLA)..." MTNewswires

 

[ZachF]

Probably still the JP Morgan "downgrade" of Tesla.

Pre-market shrugged it off for the nonsense it indeed is, but I guess there are JP Morgan clients with no pre-market trading access - so their sell orders would execute in the morning.

Why do people ever listen to their nonsense?

90% of the time they fail to beat the S&P on pure advice, and the reality is most of what they put out is obfuscation designed trick the market and allow them to make money on the delta between reality and their purposely false narrative. This is TSLAQ in a nutshell.

 

[Fact Checking]

"Daimler Trucks, a division of Daimler Group, said Friday it will acquire a majority stake in Torc Robotics for an undisclosed sum and plans to work on autonomous trucks, competing directly with Tesla (TSLA)..." MTNewswires

I find it unlikely that this caused the drop:

TORC Competitors, Revenue and Employees - Owler Company Profile

Estimated Annual Revenue: $3.1M
Estimated Employees: 72
​

I believe it's the JP Morgan downgrade that caused the pre-market drop (which recovered), and the opening drop as well.

 

[srius]

JPM lowering the PT:

"JPMorgan lowers its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $215 from $230 on concerns over Q1 delivery delays in Europe and China.

"Our estimate of 1Q Model 3 deliveries declines to 50,000 from 55,000 prior (and vs. current consensus of 54,590, as per the company), total deliveries go to 70,500 from 75,500 prior (vs. consensus 74,930), and adjusted EPS to $0.38 from $0.94 prior. Full-year 2019 goes to $4.25 from $4.50 and 2020 to $6.75 from $7.00." updates the JP analyst team."

EDIT: Already posted. Apparently TSLA doesn't care.

Contrary to the prevailing view here on the board, both bear and bull analysts who spoke out in the last two weeks share the view that Tesla will miss the consensus Model 3 deliveries. It feels like a repeat of Q3, 2018.

 

[humbaba]

The easiest way is to use dollars to mpg. For example I get roughly four miles per dime (includes charging losses). If premium gas is $3/gal (S equivalents always use premium), then an ICE car needs to get 120 mpg to be equal. Now, for some obscure reason not everyone gets four miles per dime, some only get three, so that makes 90 mpg to be equal for the lead foots. However, lead foots in an S equivalent aren't going to get anywhere near the EPA numbers for their S equivalent car.

I guess I'm a lead foot because I just ran these numbers yesterday for my utility bill and local gasoline price and came out at 94mpg dollar equivalent. In my defense, I've only had my MR since December so a lot of the driving was in very cold weather. The lowest I've calculated was ~75mpg dollar equivalent so its been improving at least. My last car was nominally 30-35mpg but was old and what I actually observed was 25-30mpg.

But I'm with you: I think framing the efficiency in dollar equivalency gets the point across better than a (perceived as) artificial MPGe. When someone says, "that must be expensive to drive" or "I guess you have a really high electrical bill now" I can point at this and they immediately understand that my energy costs have gone down -- and the efficiency is far beyond what is achieved with a gasoline powered engine.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Contrary to the prevailing view here on the board, both bear and bull analysts who spoke out in the last two weeks share the view that Tesla will miss the consensus Model 3 deliveries. It feels like a repeat of Q3, 2018.

...while wiping the floor with every other auto maker, in any class, in any market they are actively shipping to in numbers. Yup, that's a miss alright.

Dan

 

[Singuy]

Contrary to the prevailing view here on the board, both bear and bull analysts who spoke out in the last two weeks share the view that Tesla will miss the consensus Model 3 deliveries. It feels like a repeat of Q3, 2018.

Except one key difference. Elon expected Gaap profitability q3 2018 but not this Q so..

Usually you put more weight behind a pessimistic statement from the most optimistic guy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why do people ever listen to their nonsense?

On the surface JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman is a "star analyst", #265 out of 5,251 on TipRanks:

What many are going to miss is the fact that his TSLA ratings have a very bad track record:

I don't know whether he is genuinely misunderstanding and misanalyzing Tesla, or is "taking one for the team" to help JP Morgan's short position, but my guess it's the latter: half of his "sell" ratings are either near local lows or close to run-ups, which suggests that his ratings are timed strategically after big drops or before big run-ups, with the intent to influence price action...

 

[wnorris]

Probably still the JP Morgan "downgrade" of Tesla.

Pre-market shrugged it off for the nonsense it indeed is, but I guess there are JP Morgan clients with no pre-market trading access - so their sell orders would execute in the morning.

As a reminder, this is Ryan Brinkman's TSLA ratings track record from Tipranks:

View attachment 391499

He seems to have a real talent at picking lows when downgrading Tesla, in a "sell low, buy high" strategy that averaged about -10%. (Plus losses from transaction costs.)

Especially the fact that he managed to issue many of his downgrades during larger drops is suggesting that the motivation of his Tesla downgrades is often to magnify short-term down-trends.

His calls seem to proceed a rise in stock price about 80% of the time. I wonder if his downgrades are attempting to mask JPM or client buys/covers? I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but there sure appears to be a pattern.

 

[hacer]

Ferrari owners don't think women like loud cars.

Expensive red sports cars say I HAD money and looking for a woman.

That attracts a certain kind of Ferrari buyer..... and a certain kind of woman.

What people say and how they act are not necessarily the same.

FTFY

 

[Big Blue 1011]

]

I don't understand why a couple of days worth of delay is equivalent to 1.5 billion dollars in valuation. Maybe I'm just bad at math.

The Value of Meeting Deadlines in Business

Not entirely on point, but it conveys some of the internal and external benefits of amping up to meet expectations, even if the deadlines seem somewhat arbitrary.

 

[Fact Checking]

His calls seem to proceed a rise in stock price about 80% of the time. I wonder if his downgrades are attempting to mask JPM or client buys/covers? I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but there sure appears to be a pattern.

Yeah, so I think the key to Ryan Brinkman's weird Tesla ratings is the other big carmaker he is covering, which is GM:

Small world: he's only recommending to sell Tesla, while recommending to buy General Motors.

Also note how frequently his GM "buy" ratings were near local tops.

 

[X Fan]

On the surface JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman is a "star analyst", #265 out of 5,251 on TipRanks:

View attachment 391502

What many are going to miss is the fact that his TSLA ratings have a very bad track record:

I don't know whether he is genuinely misunderstanding and misanalyzing Tesla, or is "taking one for the team" to help JP Morgan's short position, but my guess it's the latter: half of his "sell" ratings are either near local lows or close to run-ups, which suggests that his ratings are timed strategically after big drops or before big run-ups, with the intent to influence price action...

love (cough) the overview: his main sector is Consumer Goods & he's 65% accurate. Not many of us would stay gainfully employed if we were only 65% to the good in our job performance.

 

[HG Wells]

On the surface JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman is a "star analyst", #265 out of 5,251 on TipRanks:

View attachment 391502

What many are going to miss is the fact that his TSLA ratings have a very bad track record:

I don't know whether he is genuinely misunderstanding and misanalyzing Tesla, or is "taking one for the team" to help JP Morgan's short position, but my guess it's the latter: half of his "sell" ratings are either near local lows or close to run-ups, which suggests that his ratings are timed strategically after big drops or before big run-ups, with the intent to influence price action...

NOTE: THE END OF HIS TSLA CHART HAS HIS FIRST EVER TSLA BUY !!

 

[AMN]

"Our estimate of 1Q Model 3 deliveries declines to 50,000 from 55,000 prior (and vs. current consensus of 54,590, as per the company), total deliveries go to 70,500 from 75,500 prior (vs. consensus 74,930), and adjusted EPS to $0.38 from $0.94 prior. Full-year 2019 goes to $4.25 from $4.50 and 2020 to $6.75 from $7.00." updates the JP analyst team."

Basically, he expects TESLA to grow 50% in 2019 and 50% in 2020. With $30B and $45B respective gross revenue and for that reason --> Sell. Today's cap is $47B. LOL

Smart money wants your scalps. E-trade's recent margin requirement hike is to milk retail investors by margin calling them. I'd highly recommend people stay out of short term options at the moment - just pure gambling at this point as the price of the stock will be what smart money wants it to be.

If I were on Tesla's board, I'd initiate privatization talks. Too lucrative not to. Tesla doesn't need Wall Street going forward.​

 

[humbaba]

Yeah, so I think the key to Ryan Brinkman's weird Tesla ratings is the other big carmaker he is covering, which is GM:

View attachment 391505

Small world: he's only recommending to sell Tesla, while recommending to buy General Motors.

Also note how frequently his GM "buy" ratings were near local tops.

well it certainly seems like his Tesla downgrades are a reasonably accurate buy signal and, if one wanted to trade against GM, using his "buy" ratings for when to short could work out pretty well too.

 

[Fact Checking]

NOTE: THE END OF HIS TSLA CHART HAS HIS FIRST EVER TSLA BUY !!

Unfortunately that appears to be a mistake in the TipRanks database: on that day JP Morgan didn't issue any ratings updates on TSLA.

(They did initiate coverage of "FOX", with a "Buy", which is probably where the error originates from.)

In the past 3 years Ryan Brinkman only issued "sell" ratings on TSLA - while all his GM ratings were "buy".

 

[HG Wells]

Unfortunately that appears to be a mistake in the TipRanks database: on that day JP Morgan didn't issue any ratings updates on TSLA.

(They did initiate coverage of "FOX", with a "Buy", which is probably where the error originates from.)

Ryan Brinkman never had a "buy" rating on TSLA - while all his GM ratings were "buy".

Perhaps in a week or two when TSLA is above 300 we should send him a note of thanks.
Along with a screen shot of that BUY !

Dear Mr: Brinkman
Just a note of thanks.
That was a brilliant move to get around your boss and post that BUY on Tesla.
See attached screen capture.

Yours Truly
Heavy Investor