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I think its crazy that tesla offer so few paint options as it is. This idea that 'you can go get it wrapped' is bizarre. I've never met anybody who has ever wrapped or changed their car color after delivery.

Without that metal grill up front, the paint is not going to make it when driving fast on poor roads. I wish paint could deliver but it seems paint is mostly a base for a protective film of some nature or other.

Film is advancing in features that bypass paint. It is the future IMHO.
 
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As I estimated it before even the $35k generates positive cash (!) - which Brinkman tries to obfuscate as "contributes only slightly positive to variable cash”

With wording like that, no one should even notice that he didn’t say Tesla will lose money on every base Model 3 they sell. Someone earned his pay!
 
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If it ain't Boeing, I am not going!
Surely this was a common expression 20 years ago. Not so much today. Since B77 adopted FBW totally and B787 survived teething pains the ancient Boeing hand-flying mantra is gone anyway unless one sticks with older 737 variants, B767 and older B747 plus the obsolete others. Not many of the old technology planes survive. For me, I'll avoid the old refurbished ones like B737NG and MAX, B747-8 when I can. I love the B777 and, now, the B787. Those last two withstand numerous versions because they were designed to from the outset. With Tesla almost no discussion (outside of Teslaphiles) includes the incredible merits of 'system' software and modular design. Just as with airplanes that lets mistakes to be quickly fixed and new features to be regularly added. [I keep thinking about making a thread comparing Tesla/BMW and Airbus/Embraer with Boeing/Canadair. Weird to see them combining with contrasting design philosophies)
If we were talking about a small Model 3 beat, and a small S+X miss, I would agree with that sentiment. But if it's a small S+X miss, but an utter Model 3 blowout, the latter part simply can't be ignored. It crushes the entire "Model 3 demand hypothesis", which is one of the key worries about the stock at present (the other being the SEC case). So long as the Model 3 cash cow keeps mooing, the company is fine.
Agreed, but mostly we are forgetting that the Model S and X revisions eliminated the lowest margin vehicles that had accounted for high volumes (I haven't resuscitated the version mix for S and X historically. Thus the reduced volumes are associated with major margin increases despite the price reductions.

Meanwhile we know now that M3 GM's are probably higher than anything any of us predicted due primarily to increases in AP and FSD take rates, partially induced by price reductions. Recognizing that increase in take rates for both of those is almost 100% bottom line because it is a software switch for both in new production, while only a 20 minute chip switch for older HW3 conversions. That will produce/has already produced additional FSD purchases by existing cars.

I really want to quantify that, but early information seems far too optimistic so I'm reluctant to do that. If teh take rates are as high as mentioned recently in this thread they could switch to Q1 profit, possibly even GAAP. This is astonishingly good news, if true. I want to believe it...

FWIW I bought FSD myself, but considered it an investment in the future. Certainly I did not expect they'd release enough function to begin taking those deposits into income.
 
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JPM lowering the PT:

"JPMorgan lowers its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $215 from $230 on concerns over Q1 delivery delays in Europe and China.

"Our estimate of 1Q Model 3 deliveries declines to 50,000 from 55,000 prior (and vs. current consensus of 54,590, as per the company), total deliveries go to 70,500 from 75,500 prior (vs. consensus 74,930), and adjusted EPS to $0.38 from $0.94 prior. Full-year 2019 goes to $4.25 from $4.50 and 2020 to $6.75 from $7.00." updates the JP analyst team."

EDIT: Already posted. Apparently TSLA doesn't care.
I don't understand why a couple of days worth of delay is equivalent to 1.5 billion dollars in valuation. Maybe I'm just bad at math.
 
  • As I estimated it before even the $35k generates positive cash (!) - which Brinkman tries to obfuscate as "contributes only slightly positive to variable cash".
We have seen this before with Amazon. For more than a decades they "worried" about Amazon's pathetic margin and simply ignore its expansion, until big retailers begin to fall like dominoes.

I guess this would be the talking points going forward, only worse given Tesla has many more enemies with big pocket.
 
Without that metal grill up front, the paint is not going to make it when driving fast on poor roads. I wish paint could deliver but it seems paint is mostly a base for a protective film of some nature or other.

Film is advancing in features that bypass paint. It is the future IMHO.
I’ll wager I’ve more experience in driving on poor roads than most. As an example, rental car companies forbid their vehicles on our road.
The amount of damage the front of any vehicle receives from “road effect” is minuscule compared to what happens to rocker panels and, in some cases, the rear. Just about 100% of any frontal damage comes about from gravel, etc. kicked up not from one’s own car but by a passing vehicle, and that trends to be distributed all over: hood, sides and so forth.

Well, other than in my cars, for which all of it gets tractor-beamed directly into my windshields but we’ll let that anomaly pass....
 
US RR coal carload traffic is down 6.6% in the first 12 months of 2019 vs. 1.5% decline for all RR traffic including coal. Coal is 15.2% of the total. Progress. Not long ago BNSF CEO Matthew Rose was quoted as saying in 20 years coal traffic on US RR's will be "extinct". Unlike optimism I read in this forum, I suspect coal will still be used to make coke to make steel.

march23table.png
I’ll back BNSF’s Rose on this one, without denying your claim. How? Because coking coal is used in blast furnaces, and the trend in the US is for our production to be reduced to electric-arc furnaces. So coke will still be used, and mightily so, but only overseas.
For those who need the briefest of all primers, blast furnaces take iron ORE and reduce it - with the assistance of that coke - into steel; electric arc furnaces primarily use as their raw material scrap steel....in other words, for them the hard work already has been done.
 
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Agreed, but mostly we are forgetting that the Model S and X revisions eliminated the lowest margin vehicles that had accounted for high volumes (I haven't resuscitated the version mix for S and X historically. Thus the reduced volumes are associated with major margin increases despite the price reductions.

Agreed, but note that the deliveries report will only report absolute numbers - not ASPs or margins. So we won't know the margins until May 2-ish when the Q1 earnings report is released.

So if it's a "big miss" into the 15k-20k deliveries range then expect the usual fearmongering:
  • "Tesla Q1 demand cliff confirmed",
  • "Model S sales collapsed in Q1",
  • "Has Tesla run out of demand for $100k+ electric cars?",
  • "Tesla to slide deeper into the red after big Q1 sales miss",
  • etc.
I'm sure the headline editors will find a way to spin it negatively. :D

And it will be a full month until the Q1 earnings report, plus there are increasing odds of a crash-out Brexit between April 12 and May 22.

I'm not saying that this is going to happen, just that it's a potential outcome.
 
BTW., one more piece of the puzzle:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/study-banks-funding-increase-fossil-fuel-industry/

"A new study shows that in the years since the Paris climate agreement, banks have paid $1.9 trillion to finance fossil fuels."

Losing a few billion dollars on shorting Tesla and trying to slow Tesla's growth via "junk bond rating" and disinformation?

That's probably peanuts compared to their "fossil industry investment value at risk".
 
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Well, other than in my cars, for which all of it gets tractor-beamed directly into my windshields but we’ll let that anomaly pass....
I've had that happen on airplane, helicopter and cars. My favorite detailer TMC Florida sponsor @First Impression , now has a windshield wrap that promises to reduce that problem. He might know somebody in remote SW who can install it. I'm on order for it, but it is not yet installed.

FWIW, one Turo-rented S I had had a few chips that I successfully had repaired without replacement while I was driving it. The owner said it came back better than it went out, which pleased me enormously, and fed my tender ego.

It seems to me that any Tesla is well worth, at minimum clear bra for all frequently damaged areas as well as a windshield bra. It's cheap when comparing to actually preparing that mess. Having lived on unpaved/poorly paved areas during most of my life I'm really convinced.
 
We have seen this before with Amazon. For more than a decades they "worried" about Amazon's pathetic margin and simply ignore its expansion, until big retailers begin to fall like dominoes.

I guess this would be the talking points going forward, only worse given Tesla has many more enemies with big pocket.

Good point. Amazon was founded in 1994. It took them more than 2 decades to come out of denial. I hope that in case of Tesla it is sooner (assuming the tech bubble and the Great Recession slowed AMZN’s emergence).
 
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And it will be a full month until the Q1 earnings report, plus there are increasing odds of a crash-out Brexit between April 12 and May 22.

I'm not saying that this is going to happen, just that it's a potential outcome.
Those two points are crucial, as is increasing reports of NA softness. The FUD will totally ignore any positive factors, and will call any of them 'fanboy spin' if they acknowledge them at all. Considering that I will not be surprised were Tesla decide to take even one time charge, expense recognition and income deferral then can find to help Q2 to become a blow-out. I hope that is not necessary.
 
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