Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

My delivery appointment for tomorrow has just been rescheduled to sunday 31/3, just as I predicted many weeks ago.
So they will be open in Europe.

I am assuming that the 3rd day of the 31st month is after the end of Q1, right?

(I kid, I kid).

 

[PANN]

Just read in China news Tesla started offering 30% discount on Model S & X to China corporate customer and leasing company, is such huge discounts normal to clear inventory cars at quarter end? or it means S & X Refresh coming very soon?

Any thoughts?

Tencent news link: 特斯拉Model S及Model X在华降库存 七折甩卖 (in Chinese, pls use Google translate)

Model S100D: tesla.com list price rmb 783k (usd 116k), after disc rmb 550k (usd 81k)

Model X100D: tesla.com list price rmb 794k (usd 118k), after disc rmb 560k (usd 82k)

 

[Todd Burch]

I want to see an analcyst with a track record of successful upgrades/downgrades that were never made public so the market didn't have the chance to react to them.

THAT's the dude I want telling me what to buy and sell.

 

[NicoV]

I am assuming that the 3rd day of the 31st month is after the end of Q1, right?

(I kid, I kid).

Something like that;
But in Europe we’re contrarian and consider it the 31st of the third month. Or is it the USA that is contrarian?

 

[AudubonB]

Probably still the JP Morgan "downgrade" of Tesla.

Pre-market shrugged it off for the nonsense it indeed is, but I guess there are JP Morgan clients with no pre-market trading access - so their sell orders would execute in the morning.

As a reminder, this is Ryan Brinkman's TSLA ratings track record from Tipranks:

View attachment 391499

He seems to have a real talent at picking lows when downgrading Tesla, in a "sell low, buy high" strategy that averaged about -10%. (Plus losses from transaction costs.)

Especially the fact that he managed to issue many of his downgrades during larger drops is suggesting that the motivation of his Tesla downgrades is often to magnify short-term down-trends.

Would someone with more imagination than I please let us know by what criterion can he possibly have a "57% Success Rate on Tesla - 17 out of 30 ratings were profitable"? And on GM, the Tipranks chart likewise states "72% - 23 of 32"

 

[KarenRei]

Just read in China news Tesla started offering 30% discount on Model S & X to China corporate customer and leasing company, is such huge discounts normal to clear inventory cars at quarter end? or it means S & X Refresh coming very soon?

Any thoughts?

Tencent news link: 特斯拉Model S及Model X在华降库存 七折甩卖 (in Chinese, pls use Google translate)

Model S100D: tesla.com list price rmb 783k (usd 116k), after disc rmb 550k (usd 81k)

Model X100D: tesla.com list price rmb 794k (usd 118k), after disc rmb 560k (usd 82k)

Do we know that these are new cars, or do they include floor models, test drive vehicles, returns, etc?

 

[Thumper]

Tesla offered clear film as factory applied option in the early days of MS.

 

[Nocturnal]

I want to see an analcyst with a track record of successful upgrades/downgrades that were never made public so the market didn't have the chance to react to them.

THAT's the dude I want telling me what to buy and sell.

That dude is rich and doesn't have to spend time telling people what stocks to buy. I know it's an exaggeration but paying an analyst to pick stocks for you is like paying a psychic to give you lotto numbers.

 

[PANN]

Do we know that these are new cars, or do they include floor models, test drive vehicles, returns, etc?

Not a lot details given, seem to be inventory cars, 30% discounts offered to volume buyers such as big corporate or leasing company, buyers are not allowed to resell the cars in two years...

 

[humbaba]

Toyota is am important company. Here is a link from Toyota at CES in 2017. Their research head starts talking at 14:30 in. It is worth a view it you want to see how serious Toyota is. Make your own conclusions.

Interesting, but that has essentially nothing to do with EVs, its all about autonomous vehicles. I believe it was also in 2017 when Toyota responded to a question about their EV progress that they merely re-iterated that it was a 10-year program. In other words, they won't say a word about how they are doing for EVs. The lack of progress is demonstrated by looking at patent applications. Toyota is betting on a miraculous breakthrough in solid state batteries and there have been some notable patents developed, but the fundamental problems remain.

A lot of his talk is attacking Tesla's driver assistance using false equivalency. The specific research he cites uses monitoring a clock for an infrequent jump which research shows that accuracy in detecting these jumps falls considerably as time goes by. Of course, overseeing autosteer or NoA is equivalent to sitting in a room with nothing but the clock and watching it as closely as you can manage.

Its as if the sentry problem was not known before the 1970s and ignores other operating modes -- such as driving a car without any assistance. Driving for long distances is another monotonous task and he even brings up truck drivers and speculates freely without any evidence that truck drivers use "secondary tasks" to sharpen their attention.

In short, the video only illustrates that Toyota has a well funded AI/FSD program, that they take swipes at Tesla (without ever mentioning Tesla by name), and gives no insight into how well their patently stalled EV program is doing.

 

[KarenRei]

Not a lot details given, seem to be inventory cars, 30% discounts offered to volume buyers such as big corporate or leasing company, buyers are not allowed to resell the cars in two years...

The significance can't be determined without knowing the details.

 

[ggr]

Tesla offered clear film as factory applied option in the early days of MS.

On the Roadster, yes, we got it. On the Model S, I don't remember it, and we probably would have got it had it been offered.

 

[M3Rider]

Reasons to choose a Bolt over Model 3:
- You're a professional cello player
- Your brother works at GM
- Dealer offers $35k part-exchange on your Ford Pinto
- You win it in a raffle
- MAGA

That's it, I'm out of ideas...

In fact, if you watch

,
there are couple of advantages of Bolt over M3:
1. Hatchback/larger trunk opening for bulky items
2. Aerial view of the car in the "reverse drive" mode, which makes it super-clear if you're about to hit something.

I think it'd be cool for Tesla to implement #2.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla offered clear film as factory applied option in the early days of MS.

Interesting. I imagine they learned something from that.

Ford offered something similar on the Ford C-Max Energi I purchase in 2013. It was a film on the rear bumper and around the wheel wells. It worked nicely particularly around the wheel wells when there is no mud flap.

 

[schonelucht]

Would someone with more imagination than I please let us know by what criterion can he possibly have a "57% Success Rate on Tesla - 17 out of 30 ratings were profitable"? And on GM, the Tipranks chart likewise states "72% - 23 of 32"

Easy, a profitable call is one that is in the money today. For example, if he called a sell rating when share price was higher than today, that's a success. Likewise for a buy at a price lower than today. IF you always make a 'sell' recommendation, then you'd expect about half success rate on a stock that was mostly moving sideway. And so that's where he is.

Btw. The analyst note for JPM mentions minimum working capital to be $1.5B to $2B. That's a much higher number than I've heard before. Is that really based on management discussions or just something the guy pulled out of thin air. Can someone who has access to the text confirm?

 

[ReflexFunds]

Easy, a profitable call is one that is in the money today. For example, if he called a sell rating when share price was higher than today, that's a success. Likewise for a buy at a price lower than today. IF you always make a 'sell' recommendation, then you'd expect about half success rate on a stock that was mostly moving sideway. And so that's where he is.

Btw. The analyst note for JPM mentions minimum working capital to be $1.5B to $2B. That's a much higher number than I've heard before. Is that really based on management discussions or just something the guy pulled out of thin air. Can someone who has access to the text confirm?

I haven't seen the note, but I presume they mean minimum of $1.5-2bn cash at quarter end to allow for intraquarter inventory build.

 

[elasalle]

I think that's a little inside the Tesla bubble and a bit of Tesla snobbery which is not conducive to EV adoption of course. I know at least a dozen people that refuse to buy a Tesla product due to a fear of stability and some as they think Elon is a concern. My neighbor thinks he's reckless and refuses to buy any Tesla product. You can disagree with this but this is a valid concern for many buyers and also based in reality and average consumers run from these headlines. The Bolt is a pretty good EV for many people excellent as a small city car and has become very popular with some ride share companies. These cars are leased with free charging which makes them very attractive vs driving an ICE. In addition there are benefits to GM so I don't think GM is out to kill Tesla with this car and they certainly can do better if they choose to do so. Consider the nonsense around the RAV4 G2 EV, the PR was that Toyota would gain EV tech from Tesla which was utter nonsense. That was a mutual back scratching event for green washing, CARB credits, and NUMI solutions. Both parties one on paper. I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose. I saw prototype EVs from the a big German automaker before there was a Model S or any production EV on the market. Many companies have had development for a long time but various reasons kept them from entering "all in".

(I too laugh) So what are they waiting for?
Even if they have the tech - that is just one thing. If we assume they have the tech, then we can assume that they have done the math that makes migrating to EV very costly for them. (ICE incumbent dilemma)

 

[Doggydogworld]

If you own MXWL and think that TSLA is going to go down long-term you want TSLA to be high when the merger happens, because you expect it to drop immediately and you're going to try to sell it right away after the conversion.

If you're going to sell immediately, you don't really care as long as TSLA stays above 245. Even a large MXWL holder could dump his TSLA shares in a day or so.

If you own MXWL and have already shorted TSLA in anticipation of swapping MXWL stock for it, you will be reducing your short position (covering) as TSLA goes up.

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I can't think why anyone would play this deal by being long MXWL/short TSLA. If TSLA neared 245 it could make sense. This deal is too fluid to play the 5 day VWAP.

If there are 11 m shorted, then there's 57 m in the hands of "longs"

11m of those 57m cannot be tendered, of course.

Institutions won't tender until the last minute. There might be an institution holding out or MXWL may just have a high percentage of small holders, a group that's notorious for ignoring tender offers.​

 

[humbaba]

My neighbor thinks he's reckless and refuses to buy any Tesla product. You can disagree with this but this is a valid concern for many[some] buyers and also based in reality and average[some] consumers run from these headlines.

FTFY

 

[lklundin]

My delivery appointment for tomorrow has just been rescheduled to sunday 31/3, just as I predicted many weeks ago.
So they will be open in Europe.

I checked the Swedish Tesla club's forum, where one poster has a (preliminary) delivery appointment on Sunday.

That forum has quite a lot of individuals uncertain about their delivery date and the exact, current location of their car, with delivery appointments for today, tomorrow and some next week.

TeslaClubSweden.se • Visa tråd - Nu släppte det igen

I am unsure whether the mostly catholic EU countries will deliver on Sunday, here you can't even go to a car wash on a Sunday.