Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

I should caveat that this week's increase in short interest MAY be due to merger arb traders playing the MXWL merger. We'll know as soon as the merger closes; if short interest drops substantially pretty much overnight after the merger closes, that was merger arb shorting.

It's hard to believe that could be the case. The total market cap of MXWL is only $207 million.

 

[Tslynk67]

If you have a twitter account, you should reply and point out that all four of those are wildly biased against Tesla.

I did just that, and added a few more names for good measure: Lex Fridman on Twitter

 

[jerry33]

Requiring drivers to stay alert and take over when they need to does not mean drivers stay alert and take over when they need to. We've already seen cases where they didn't. This will continue to be the case as more non-techie, non-early-adopter drivers start driving Teslas.

After driving for a while on interstates, AP or no AP, drivers' alertness reduces. I'd think that the odds for not having an issue would be better with AP, than without. Neither AP nor non-AP prevent all accidents.

 

[Fact Checking]

Packed delivery center in Beijing, China:

Vincent on Twitter​

"More pictures update of Tesla Beijing Delivery Center , March 29th 2019"

So the Q1 end of quarter delivery push in China went as far as Beijing. I.e. the few days customs delays with the Model 3 weren't a problem and the cars got far inland.

 

[jerry33]

Some people might not be financially secure enough to refi but that is not making solar more expensive. That’s their situation. If they can pay their electric bill they can buy solar as a home owner..... typically.

Of course, if you're not typical, that doesn't work. In my cases solar for 90% of usage was quoted as $232. Unfortunately, my highest summer electric bill is $170, and that's with the 100% renewable plan (which is more expensive). And I'd still have an electric bill to pay.

 

[ggies07]

GM sold 18,000 Bolts in the United States last year, down nearly 23 percent over 2017. The No. 1 U.S. automaker ended production of its plug-in electric Chevrolet Volt in February.

The Model S outsells the Bolt? I didn’t know this.

Down? Bah-hahahahaha.

 

[jerry33]

Oops, sorry, maybe I was half right.

The blue graphic was the one I meant to start with, the article says that is for average EV efficiency, the solid red one was for high efficiency cars like M3.

Good that they took into account emisssions from extracting/refining/transporting, my bad I missed that.

My point remains that this is the best way I have seen to sell the lowered emissions benefits of EVs, because it uses MPG and folks know MPG. Start talking kwh vs gasoline and their eyes glaze over, and they go back to “but the power companies produce just as much emissions, right?”

The easiest way is to use dollars to mpg. For example I get roughly four miles per dime (includes charging losses). If premium gas is $3/gal (S equivalents always use premium), then an ICE car needs to get 120 mpg to be equal. Now, for some obscure reason not everyone gets four miles per dime, some only get three, so that makes 90 mpg to be equal for the lead foots. However, lead foots in an S equivalent aren't going to get anywhere near the EPA numbers for their S equivalent car.

 

[RobPet]

There we go: 478 Model 3s in the Netherlands yesterday (2141 total so far). Almost beating Norway's record.
Let's see what today and tomorrow bring.

https://opendata.rdw.nl/Voertuigen/Tesla-Model-3-delivery-NL/76t3-9ba8

 

[Fact Checking]

GM says no cut in Chevy Bolt sticker price as U.S. tax credit for EVs drops | Reuters

Oh wow:

Spokesperson Jim Cain confirmed the news and said (via Reuters):

“it is easier to react to the market by working with dealers and your marketing team than it is to change sticker prices.”​

Code word for: "GM was only making the Bolt as a compliance vehicle, and it is already sold at a loss."

IIRC there were reports that GM is losing around $10,000 on every Bolt sold?

That's not going to end well ...

 

[mongo]

IIRC there were reports that GM is losing around $10,000 on every Bolt sold?

That's not going to end well ...

Didn't you see post #33423? Bolt sales were down 23% or 5k units, that's like $50 million in additional revenue!

 

[Pras]

Would it make sense for Tesla to offer different colors for model Y or the China model3? Given the GF1 and GF3 will have own paint shops, no need to rely on the limited paints. I think model Y can be differentiated by paint as well (as stupid as it may sound).

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

its not stupid at all. I think its crazy that tesla offer so few paint options as it is. This idea that 'you can go get it wrapped' is bizarre. I've never met anybody who has ever wrapped or changed their car color after delivery.

 

[KarenRei]

There we go: 478 Model 3s in the Netherlands yesterday (2141 total so far). Almost beating Norway's record.
Let's see what today and tomorrow bring.

View attachment 391478
https://opendata.rdw.nl/Voertuigen/Tesla-Model-3-delivery-NL/76t3-9ba8

Yeah, it's like.... who didn't see this coming?

... Well, I guess Shortsville didn't....

 

[KarenRei]

its not stupid at all. I think its crazy that tesla offer so few paint options as it is.

It reduces inventory. The fewer the number of configurations, the fewer permutations they have to keep on-hand.

As their global volumes expand, and as their cash stockpile grows (making inventory minimization less critical), we'll probably start to see more colours eventually. But this is inventory-minimization here as it stands.

 

[KarenRei]

Oh wow:

Spokesperson Jim Cain confirmed the news and said (via Reuters):

“it is easier to react to the market by working with dealers and your marketing team than it is to change sticker prices.”​

Code word for: "GM was only making the Bolt as a compliance vehicle, and it is already sold at a loss."

IIRC there were reports that GM is losing around $10,000 on every Bolt sold?

That's not going to end well ...

In the short term, it's going to end with GM buying more ZEV credits from Tesla

 

[Wnuk]

And here I thought that downgrade would be bad for TSLA today.

Guess Think or Swim was a little confused this morning.

 

[Leo9]

JPM lowering the PT:

"JPMorgan lowers its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $215 from $230 on concerns over Q1 delivery delays in Europe and China.

"Our estimate of 1Q Model 3 deliveries declines to 50,000 from 55,000 prior (and vs. current consensus of 54,590, as per the company), total deliveries go to 70,500 from 75,500 prior (vs. consensus 74,930), and adjusted EPS to $0.38 from $0.94 prior. Full-year 2019 goes to $4.25 from $4.50 and 2020 to $6.75 from $7.00." updates the JP analyst team."

EDIT: Already posted. Apparently TSLA doesn't care.

 

[Fact Checking]

its not stupid at all. I think its crazy that tesla offer so few paint options as it is. This idea that 'you can go get it wrapped' is bizarre. I've never met anybody who has ever wrapped or changed their car color after delivery.

The paint shop in Fremont was a major bottleneck and choke point, limiting total vehicles produced.

They simplified the color palette to:

• increase color batch sizes,
• to reduce time spent flushing/cleaning the paint booths between color batches,
• to reduce inventory: probabilistically every new paint option added increases effective inventory by about 5%.

Sometime in December they achieved a paint shop QA breakthrough - I don't know what that was about - maybe they stopped mixing colors between booths, which reduced contamination?

Anyway, I'd not expect more color options until paint shop capacity has been expanded.

 

[Creekstalker]

As I estimated it before even the $35k generates positive cash (!) - which Brinkman tries to obfuscate as "contributes only slightly positive to variable cash".

I'd love to read your post about this but probably missed it. Can anyone link?

Honestly, if the $35k Standard Model 3 is profitable already then the war is decided and the only question is when.

 

[Fred42]

US RR coal carload traffic is down 6.6% in the first 12 months of 2019 vs. 1.5% decline for all RR traffic including coal. Coal is 15.2% of the total. Progress. Not long ago BNSF CEO Matthew Rose was quoted as saying in 20 years coal traffic on US RR's will be "extinct". Unlike optimism I read in this forum, I suspect coal will still be used to make coke to make steel.