Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maarten]

Selling options has little risk, everything is defined up-front, you know the premium you receive, you know what price your shares will be sold at, and with sold options you can always roll, unlike bought options - which are a totally different beast

OK, on the first page of the thread you refer to I read:
"I had 1750 TSLA shares in 2011. I have less than 250 shares worth of value today. My lack of knowledge cost me a tremendous amount."
I guess someone there learned something the hard way.
Other people I read about on TMC that have been busy with options are discussing facing bankruptcy. So, learning the hard way to the max?

There are people here on TMC saying how much money they've earned with options trading and hat makes it sound very attractive.
And maybe it is.
But for me: I have decided to stay away from options. HODL'ing has worked more than fine for me.
The next best thing compared to a magic crystal ball is all the info I obtain here and I believe HODL'ing will continue to remain fine for some time to come.

 

[MP3Mike]

You can add it back in since the seat's still wired for lumbar. There's a thread on it.

Nope, Tesla has since disabled the controls for cars that didn't ship with lumbar on the passenger side and decontented the controller so it doesn't even have the chips to do it anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if the wiring has been removed on newer vehicles as well.

 

[wtlloyd]

OK, on the first page of the thread you refer to I read:
"I had 1750 TSLA shares in 2011. I have less than 250 shares worth of value today. My lack of knowledge cost me a tremendous amount."
I guess someone there learned something the hard way.
Other people I read about on TMC that have been busy with options are discussing facing bankruptcy. So, learning the hard way to the max?

There are people here on TMC saying how much money they've earned with options trading and hat makes it sound very attractive.
And maybe it is.
But for me: I have decided to stay away from options. HODL'ing has worked more than fine for me.
The next best thing compared to a magic crystal ball is all the info I obtain here and I believe HODL'ing will continue to remain fine for some time to come.

They are wisest, who know what they don't know.

 

[Ohmster]

.But for me: I have decided to stay away from options. HODL'ing has worked more than fine for me.
The next best thing compared to a magic crystal ball is all the info I obtain here and I believe HODL'ing will continue to remain fine for some time to come.

I am a novice in the world of options. But have been dabbling a bit since November.

For my HODL account, my ‘strategy’ is to place covered calls at a strike I don’t think it will get to (duh) and I’m ok with selling at if it hits. Time frame is usually 3-4 weeks out. I use my gains to buy ‘free’ shares. That’s it.

For my play account. I get a little bit more aggressive and sell to pay margin interest and add shares as above. Thinking is worst case, I lose those bought in margin. Time frame is usually 1-2 weeks out.

Ratio of HODL to play chairs is 9:1. I’ve netted about 40 ‘free’ shares plus all margin interest to date.

 

[ZeApelido]

If anyone wants to read any sort of empirical evidence for what happens with covered calls, you can read my opus here

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Textbook MaxPain says Friday close $650-660. If I had money or margin, selling p650 & c660 sure looks like a pretty sure bet. Unfortunately, I’m pretty much tapped out. I could sell a couple more CCs. Hmmmm. Too late today, maybe tomorrow.

teslamotorsclub.com

TLDR

If you expect TSLA to “only “ double or less in share price in the next year, covered calls could be profitable. Above that it becomes more likely you won’t be able to roll out to keep your shares or sell near fair market value.

 

[Max Plaid]

You should explain that selling covered calls have limited risk. Selling naked calls theoretically have unlimited risk. Then you'd have to explain how to cover them and that would be a long post!

Indeed, one should under no circumstances ever sell naked calls as there are theoretical infinite losses, must always be underwritten by shares or calls

Naked puts are another matter, the maximum amount at risk there is the value of the strike in the case the stock goes to zero. In any case, sold puts should either be fully cash covered or have the margin requirement limited by a long put at a lower strike (which then makes it a spread)

 

[Max Plaid]

@Max Plaid , what happens if TSLA hits $1,300 this fall for long enough for someone to excercise?

Early exercise is very rare, especially that far in advance, the option holder would be giving up a load of time-value, better to sell the calls for profit and buy the shares on open market

Edit: already answered with better explanation by @Knightshade

P.S. I don't recommend anyone starting to trade options, there lies madness... but selling covered calls can provide additional income and is the most common and simplest option play

 

[Words of HABIT]

Fast forward eight years to April 2030. Tesla carries the highest market cap of any company by a wide margin. Quarterly financials just came in at a record 37th consecutive beat of Market Consensus. Mars colonization has begun with hundreds of Optimus deployed and Cybertrucks are roaming the red planet. But wait! Elon decides to use 1/30 of his personal net worth to pursue a cause that he strongly believes in and TMC Investors Roundtable members go full on "Lord of the Flies" mode because way back on April 28th, 2022 Elon tweeted "No further TSLA sales planned after today." Mark my words.

 

[Sofie]

Are we all still thinking that on Monday 5/2, we may have communication from Tesla regarding shareholder meeting dates, possible split information, etc.? Or did someone point out that didn’t necessarily have to be the date for news release of any sort?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm seeing a ton of estimates out now for Tesla's Q2 around the 270-280k mark. Probably most are taking that certain Twitter poster's numbers as gospel. Also seeing a ton of misinformation about the number of lost production. I've even see one article stating Giga Shanghai lost a whole month of production and then went on to say that one months production is the equivalent of 90k units.

To lay out some plain facts, when you add up the 3 months of production numbers for Giga Shanghai from Q1, the average monthly production number was around 60k, not 90k or even 70k. Then given that Giga Shanghai restarted production on April 19th, that was only 18 days of down production........not even close to a whole month (30 days).

When it comes time to compare Q1 to Q2, I see practically no one accounting for the fact that Giga Shanghai had a total of about 15 days of lost production in Q1 (6 days for Chinese New Year, 1 day in late Jan, 1 fewer days in Q1 vs Q2, 2 days in mid March, and then the last 4 days of March). So the total days of lost production isn't that different than Q1. We're talking about 3 days difference. Now let's add on an additional 7 days since Giga Shanghai is running at 60% it's usual capacity for the first 2 weeks of resuming activities. So 10 lost days of production when compared to Q1.

But there's a couple other things to consider on the flip side that will add to Q2's numbers. The extra day in Q2 vs Q1 gives Fremont more production. S/X production seemed to reach a new level in the last month of Q1, Elon said Giga Shanghai will reach a new weekly output record (which lines up with the expected production increase that was supposed to happen in April), and Berlin/Austin will likely contribute anywhere from 15,000-20,000 between them.

To sum it up, I see Q2's deliveries coming in 300-315k based on no further shutdowns out of Giga Shanghai. The estimates out there of 270-280k make zero sense to me.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are we all still thinking that on Monday 5/2, we may have communication from Tesla regarding shareholder meeting dates, possible split information, etc.? Or did someone point out that didn’t necessarily have to be the date for news release of any sort?

Here's my WAG*:

• SEC filing before the Open on Mon, May 2nd
• Announce date for AGM w. agenda for voting
• AGM to be held in early June
• Vote to be on authorizing 1T shares
• date for future split NOT announced on Monday
• when the Board does announce a split, it'll be big'un (10:1ish)
• share dividend timing could repeat the Aug 2020 pattern

*Totally made up; I have no insider knowlege.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm seeing a ton of estimates out now for Tesla's Q2 around the 270-280k mark. Probably most are taking that certain Twitter poster's numbers as gospel. Also seeing a ton of misinformation about the number of lost production. I've even see one article stating Giga Shanghai lost a whole month of production and then went on to say that one months production is the equivalent of 90k units.

To lay out some plain facts, when you add up the 3 months of production numbers for Giga Shanghai from Q1, the average monthly production number was around 60k, not 90k or even 70k. Then given that Giga Shanghai restarted production on April 19th, that was only 18 days of down production........not even close to a whole month (30 days).

When it comes time to compare Q1 to Q2, I see practically no one accounting for the fact that Giga Shanghai had a total of about 15 days of lost production in Q1 (6 days for Chinese New Year, 1 day in late Jan, 1 fewer days in Q1 vs Q2, 2 days in mid March, and then the last 4 days of March). So the total days of lost production isn't that different than Q1. We're talking about 3 days difference. Now let's add on an additional 7 days since Giga Shanghai is running at 60% it's usual capacity for the first 2 weeks of resuming activities. So 10 lost days of production when compared to Q1.

But there's a couple other things to consider on the flip side that will add to Q2's numbers. The extra day in Q2 vs Q1 gives Fremont more production. S/X production seemed to reach a new level in the last month of Q1, Elon said Giga Shanghai will reach a new weekly output record (which lines up with the expected production increase that was supposed to happen in April), and Berlin/Austin will likely contribute anywhere from 15,000-20,000 between them.

To sum it up, I see Q2's deliveries coming in 300-315k based on no further shutdowns out of Giga Shanghai. The estimates out there of 270-280k make zero sense to me.

That’s all informative and thus I’ll estimate 283,000.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Early exercise is very rare, especially that far in advance, the option holder would be giving up a load of time-value, better to sell the calls for profit and buy the shares on open market

Edit: already answered with better explanation by @Knightshade

P.S. I don't recommend anyone starting to trade options, there lies madness... but selling covered calls can provide additional income and is the most common and simplest option play

The only reason I would recommend someone to get into option would be to sell puts at a price they intended to buy shares anyway and sell covered calls for the number of shares they wanted to sell at the price they want to let them go.

Selling Bull Put Spreads of Bear Call Spreads might destroy and obliterate a portfolio in less than 1 week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OK, I am a civil engineer and will try to explain in a simple way (and give you some understanding how since ages we have dealt with this here in The Netherlands).
In regions near the coast of a country very often, over a thousands of years, the rivers and lakes have brought layers of clay and compressed layers of plants (estuary land).
The western part of The Netherlands has this characteristic. Deeper down, say 15 meters till sometimes more than 30 meters, are sand layers that are solid.
This is why houses in Amsterdam have since long past been built on wooden poles, to bring the weight of the houses to these solid sand layers. They would have sunk into the soft ground without them. If you could look under Amsterdam you would see a huge forest of wooden poles.

To build a complete huge warehouse or road on poles would of course be very expensive. So you use them only for large concentrated loads (under heavy machinery, columns of buildings, etc.
How to obtain an even settlement under other parts of the building or roads/parking lots (like roads in the western part of my country)? It's too expensive to dig the soft layers out completely, you would just create a lake that you cannot easily drain and fill with sand afterwards.
The answer is prestressing. These soft layers contain a lot of water that has to pressed out of it, in order to make them more solid. Pressing water out of the pores of clay is difficult however and takes a long time. By putting the weight of meters of sand on top the pressing out of water is accelerated, but still takes a long time (many months).

The land in Shanghai has the characteristics as described above. We will see proof of the prestressing when we will see measuring sticks on top of them. By regularly measuring how these sticks go slowly down in time because of the weight of the sand on top, it can be calculated how much time is needed for the soil to have been compacted sufficiently for the purpose ahead. It can be accelerated by pressing vertically draining into the layers, but that is a question of extra cost against shorter compression time.
For us of importance: I don't think they will be building something there in 2021, it is preparing the land months ahead.

We got some unique high-angle air photos via drone from Giga Shanghai on April 26. Any indication how the “soil surcharging” is progressing? (480p 'overview' below, click thumbnail at the bottom of this comment for a 1280p 'detail' image)

IMO, this site is starting to line up as the possible location for Robotaxi production.

Cheers!

 

[Tommy O]

@The Accountant

My source says they think Shanghai employees were paid during the shutdown, but not certain.

From what I know otherwise, I think it’s more likely than not that they were paid.

As far as I know, they’re running a single shift still now that they’ve reopened. But the single shift is reportedly much more efficient in cars/hour than before.

Seems like a huge wildcard for anyone betting short term. Could surprise up or down. Not a bet I’m willing to make. Just holding, as usual.

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant

My source says they think Shanghai employees were paid during the shutdown, but not certain.

From what I know otherwise, I think it’s more likely than not that they were paid.

As far as I know, they’re running a single shift still now that they’ve reopened. But the single shift is reportedly much more efficient in cars/hour than before.

Seems like a huge wildcard for anyone betting short term. Could surprise up or down. Not a bet I’m willing to make. Just holding, as usual.

Thanks this is helpful.

 

[Todd Burch]

The real question for Shanghai, I think, is its suppliers. We don’t know what suppliers were shut down, for how long, or how much existing part inventory there was. As we all know, if you’re missing one part Tesla can’t ship the car.

Probably the only thing that can provide insight to that is drone flyovers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The real question for Shanghai, I think, is its suppliers. We don’t know what suppliers were shut down, for how long, or how much existing part inventory there was. As we all know, if you’re missing one part Tesla can’t ship the car.

Probably the only thing that can provide insight to that is drone flyovers.

Tesla/Elon answered this exact question on the earnings call. They would have already been aware of any limitations in their supply chain and Elon still said what he said.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla/Elon answered this exact question on the earnings call. They would have already been aware of any limitations in their supply chain and Elon still said what he said.

True. Hopefully there are not any more surprises. Logistics may be an unexpected challenge too, but in general I agree with your estimate of 83,000 for Q2.

 

[The Accountant]

The RORO carrier ship Viking Adventure docked at Shanghai today (Apr 30) with expected destination of Zeebrugge.
According to Franco, this is subject to change. The ship has listed Ningbo China as it's first destination which is unusual.
I think we will know more by mid-week.