Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SN_8]

TMC had such events annually back BC.

Wow, some of you are older than I thought!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Since we're talking about possible negatives, I think any automaker, including Tesla, have a few key risks:
• quality issues
• service issues
• design gets stale or dated

And there are a few risks unique to Tesla:
• 4680 ramp takes much longer than expected or fails completely
• key man risk with Elon
• FSD is perpetually several months away from being solved

My thoughts on negatives/risk
• Tesla doesn't seem to have any serious quality issues (knock on wood) despite numerous FUD articles
• There are service issues, but as others have said, the company is addressing them, so hopefully they will be a thing of the past
• With demand off the charts, this doesn't matter right now, but they have shown that they can do a refresh if necessary
• I'll be worried about 4680 until it scales
• Nothing can be done about key man risk, so I don't worry about it
• I am concerned that FSD will always be close, but those last few 9s will be exponentially harder to overcome. I don't expect a solid FSD until at least 2025, and wouldn't be surprised if they had at least one more major rearchitecture/rewrite

Despite any negatives or concerns, Tesla is waaaaayyyyy better than the competition who will have even worse problems and are several years behind technology wise.

 

[hobbes]

Herbert Diess of Volkswagen is rallying his workers, gotta love his sense of humor (meme from his own presentation):

VW chief claims carmaker can overtake ‘weakening’ Tesla by 2025​

VW chief claims carmaker can overtake ‘weakening’ Tesla by 2025

Herbert Diess tells employees that group must seize opportunity to capitalise on Elon Musk’s woes

www.ft.com

 

[ZachF]

Informational tidbit of the day, here is the Q1 2022 revenues for various automakers:

$70.3b Volkswagen
$69.8b Toyota
$43.1b Stellantis
$39.1b Daimler
$36.0b GM
$34.9b BMW
$34.5b Ford
$33.4b Honda
$28.7b SAIC Motor
$25.1B Hyundai
$19.5b Nissan
$18.8b Tesla
$15.2b Kia
$12.8b Renault
$11.3b Volvo
$10.5b BYD
$10.4b Tata Motor
$8.6b Suzuki
$8.2b Mazda
$6.3b Subaru
$6.3b Isuzu
$5.5b Chongqing Changan
$5.4b Mitsubishi Motors
$5.3b Great Wall Motors
$4.5b Geely
$1.6b Nio
$0.1b Rivian

Converted using quarterly average exchange rates.

Japan has a lot of small-medium automakers that are gonna die IMHO.

I think Tesla will hit ~$25 billion in Q3 and possibly $30b in Q4… that puts them squarely in “big boy” territory.

By 2023 it’ll probably be in 3rd place globally

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Herbert Diess of Volkswagen is rallying his workers, gotta love his sense of humor (meme from his own presentation):

VW chief claims carmaker can overtake ‘weakening’ Tesla by 2025​

VW chief claims carmaker can overtake ‘weakening’ Tesla by 2025

Herbert Diess tells employees that group must seize opportunity to capitalise on Elon Musk’s woes

www.ft.com

View attachment 822149

I love that the claim of weakness is based on fact that Tesla has so much demand that they have to build more factories

 

[unk45]

... Super bullish on Tesla and super bearish on mankind.

I really want to disagree with you. I want to, but I cannot. Mankind is seemingly bent on planetary destruction. Choosing the present time to increase subsidies for fossil fuel production and use is being done in many major countries, even some with otherwise modest moves to diminish fossil fuel use.

Some jurisdictions are actually increasing BEV and renewable costs.

Tesla over and over thrives despite impediments including the basic business model (eg, no dealers). other BEV makers and sellers seem beset with their own impediments.

All that makes me more bullish on Tesla and more bearish on mankind.
Stay long on Tesla and know that there are not very many positive investment alternatives right now apart fro TSLA and number of suppliers to the renewable industry: wind turbine (VWS), batteries (CATL), and a few others such as BYD.. All of those are worth being bullish too. There are positive rational choices, all fighting against the odds.

Other than fighting against the odds we can only give up. That's not really very human is it?

 

[MadScientist23]

What's sinking the market today? Is it just unease between the market inflation reports or is there something I didn't catch that's affecting the macro market?

 

[Drezil]

What's sinking the market today? Is it just unease between the market inflation reports or is there something I didn't catch that's affecting the macro market?

i wonder the same.. i have not found anything explaining the sudden downward drift.

 

[AndrewZ]

I love that the claim of weakness is based on fact that Tesla has so much demand that they have to build more factories

I think older folks in manufacturing would probably say this is the worst time in recent history to attempt ramping up new factories. At least Tesla got them built before inflation started really going nuts, that's a big plus in terms of their cost, but ramping up factories in the current environment of supply chain issues etc is so far from ideal.

Other automakers' investment in future EV production is also at risk, since the nature of inflation means that costs already sunk into existing infrastructure are advantaged against that same infrastructure built in an inflated future. It will now cost far more to build an equivalent factory in 2022> versus <2019.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I really don't think this is an echo chamber. Negative views of Tesla portrayed by the media are shared here often and then debunked with facts.

Call me a fanboi if you will, but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla is killing it:
- unlimited demand at current production levels;
- best margins and profitability in the industry;
- most efficient spending, including on "extra's" such as AI, FSD, Energy etc;
- no debt;
- nice cash reserves.

I wouldn't want my money anywhere else.

To adress your list of perceived weakness:

• Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.

Service has room for improvement, but I see no evidence Tesla is not taking the criticisms seriously. They are trying to ramp service and building out the mobile service fleet, which is the most comfortable solution for most customers. TL;DR: improving each quarter and I see no impossible hurdles to overcome the coming quarters/years. You do raise a good point with this, but this has been discussed and Tesla is not ignoring the issue. So little can be said at this point IMO. Service could be a long term killer for the company, IF Tesla were to ignore it. But I don't see evidence they are ignoring it.

• Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.

Demand cannot be met at current production levels, so this point is moot. Yes, you would prefer to have any colour you want, but that won't increase Tesla's production ramp or financials. On the contrary, it would be counterproductive to ramp/financials and the mission. So this is a first world problem.

• Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.

See previous point on demand. Yes, it would be even better if there were more/better interior options but apparently there are plenty of people paying whatever price Tesla asks (ever increasing) for the current models. Moot point at this point in time.

• Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.

Don't want it, don't buy it. Economics 101.

• Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.

Other OEMs experience no delays on their new models whatsoever. /s

These products will come and they will rock. They will outperform the sports cars, semi's and trucks offered by the 'competition'. Patience.

Also, watch the Elon interview with the Silicon valley owners club. He explains in great detail why Tesla has to prioritize just building the current models from the current factories instead of doing all other things on Tesla's bucket list (software imrovements, new models, etc). Tesla is not out of ideas of stuff to do, but they need the newly built factories to scale first in order not to become unprofitable again. As an investor I'm very grateful Elon has his priorities straight and doesn't lose focus. (And no, Twitter is not a distraction. Tesla is doing great considering the circumstances (Covid, Russia, inflation and the supply chain issues that followed))

Don't get me wrong: I'm just as enthusiastic about the future of Tesla as you. A future in which Tesla offers more colours, interiors, software options and models. But for now those are all distractions and even detrimental to the main mission AND the business. Money talks. It will allow Tesla to add colours, service etc. And on the money/demand front (one ensures the other) Tesla is fortunately in a good and ever improving position.

I guess I belong in the superbull thread, not this one .

Mods: nominated for post of particular merit

 

[Buckminster]

I thought Rob and Dave were the ones going to be doing the next Elon interview?

Not sure a "love in" counts as an interview:

 

[henchman24]

What's sinking the market today? Is it just unease between the market inflation reports or is there something I didn't catch that's affecting the macro market?

Consumer confidence came in way below expectation... which was already low.

 

[unk45]

Wow, some of you are older than I thought!

I image that is true but the reference was to 'Before Covid-19' of course so not really a Gregorian calendar reference.

 

[MadScientist23]

Um... I'm still researching a Y replacement, and a new one LR is now showing only 318 mi. range. I thought these were still 331 mi until 4680s.
I'm in the west, so this would typically come from Fremont as I understood distribution in the US.

I think this just happened or I haven't noticed. I could speculate.... you know me. So what is this vehicle?

Also, used on Tesla.com was empty yesterday (inventory moving). Today, a bunch just showed up, all with FSD, about the same price as a new. They are selling despite.

Lead time is next year, but if ramps go well I wouldn't be surprised if it's pulled in (and hit 2022' total sales).

View attachment 822165

That's the specs for the 20" induction wheels. If you select the 19" it goes up to 330.

 

[jw934]

>> Eric Schmidt commenting he would never bet against Elon. Saying he is a special case. Advocating for the passage of the CHIPS act.

Source would be nice... (yes, I did google)

I also did a quick search and couldn't find it. But I did find this quote from today's CNBC interview on his advocacy for CHIPS where he talks about tech employees getting stock options for cheap right now. He said: "Yes, This is the year. This is going to be a good year.", in response to the question: "Is this the year to invest? Is this the moment when you actually say things are on sale?".

Context is that for the young techies who are shocked because they have never experience recessions before will get a shot in a couple of years to benefit from the stocks on sale prices this year.

Link to the 1:11 time mark:

My thought is the 3-1 split will ensure Tesla employees maximize their stock benefit.

 

[Xepa777]

YES YES YES, exactly.

Yesterday many people "disagreed" with me, but none of them even engaged. There is no advancement for me or them under those conditions.

You see all the downvotes I got this weekend for bringing up criticisms to the Tesla YouTuber fsd hype syndrome?

Internets a giant echo chamber.

 

[mars_or_bust]

oti wonder the same.. i have not found anything explaining the sudden downward drift.

It was last week's rise in the stock market that was probably more of an anomaly. With persistently high worldwide inflation, with an imminent official recession, there is no real reason for the market to not be bearish. For a true change in sentiment on the stock market, the inflation has to drop, for that to happen oil has to drop significantly (say to 70-80 dollars per barrel). Oil price should drop once recession hits in full force, perhaps in a few months.

Am waiting with couch cash for more TSLA for that, in a very naive and misguided belief I will be able to time the bottom

I know dollar cost averaging is the way to go, and in general I practice it. However, all these macro headwinds have me spooked a bit, compounded by both the Ukraine war and a lack of vision/long term economic policies from the governing bodies. So am now keeping cash just in case things go much more downhill than anticipated.

Also, on a more sinister level, I am located in the eastern part of EU, and to be honest, here one can never be sure if the Ukraine war will spill over, with Russia attacking its formed Soviet Union minions - if that happens it is a very good policy to have cash in hand, so I can get my family out west.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's the specs for the 20" induction wheels. If you select the 19" it goes up to 330.

Thanks, I del my post.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You see all the downvotes I got this weekend for bringing up criticisms to the Tesla YouTuber fsd hype syndrome?

Internets a giant echo chamber.

You guys are such babies. You should see all the upvotes I got when I suggested maybe I should leave.

 

[Ogre]

You guys are such babies. You should see all the upvotes I got when I suggested maybe I should leave.

I didn't upvote you because I've had you on ignore for months already and never see your posts.

/s