Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

Nothing wrong with being greedy, you just have to be good at it!

So what you're saying is - greed, for lack of a better word - is good?

Edit: /s

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.

Just a fyi, the Suprme court EPA decision has zero bearing on Tesla. Zero.

It sucks for the planet since polluters won’t be held accountable. But renewables have already hit the inflection point of demand. There’s no turning back now. Especially that Tesla is at scale now

 

[gillfoto]

Tesla was at $38 on May 22, 2019

They have endured:

Production Hell​

Logistics Hell​

Coronavirus breakout​

Delivery Slowdown due to Covid​

Fremont Lockdown​

Model S&X Refresh Delays​

Delta/Omicron variants​

Chip & Parts Shortages​

Lack of batteries and chips for Mega Packs/Power Walls​

Giga Berlin Construction Delays​

Inflation impacting source materials​

Federal Reserve rate hikes meant to dampen demand​

Shanghai Lockdown​

Austin 4680 delays​

Port Logistic Issues​

​

. . and yet they execute.

There will always be obstacles out there but I think in the future we will look back at this 3-4 year period and marvel at Tesla's innovation and perseverance.

Typo: Sure it wasn't $380?

 

[henchman24]

Definitely agree on the local trips - had my Y for a year now, and love never visiting a station.
Now I'm on my second major road trip - 1000 miles so far. About half my charges have been no (or limited) hassle; they were convenient to my route and I wanted a break or have a meal anyway. A couple have been a real drag though - not near mealtimes, and 30+ minutes charging, or in one case a solid 15-20 minutes off my route, with the chargers in the back of a hotel (I like those a lot less than the ones at the travel/truck stops as I feel like I'm intruding on their 'real' business - maybe my issue, curious if anyone else feels that way).
The EV road trip experience is worse than ones in my old Prius at those times. It would be greatly enhanced by a few more chargers located at (IMHO) more appropriate businesses than hotels one is not staying at.
I love these road trips - look, I'm in an EV going cross country! - but I am an enthusiast. New EV owners, possibly new Model 3 Hertz renters, generally will not come from that same mindset. Having to divert 20 minutes off route, wait 30 minutes at the back of a parking lot, then return 20 minutes back on route is NOT fun for these folks. Not that much fun for me either. We need more chargers, and yes I have noticed a lot of new ones going up in the last 6 months. Hoping we keep it up.

Might just be my trips, but I can't recall a time where I've had to go more than 10 minutes off route. Most of the time it is just a stoplight or two. And I almost never actually charge 30 minutes (15-20 is common). Are you riding the charging curve or going to set percentages?

 

[henchman24]

Typo: Sure it wasn't $380?

That's split adjusted... $38 is correct split adjusted.

 

[Ogre]

This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.

The vast majority of what Tesla is doing is not driven by regulatory requirements or regulatory pressures.

Very important to keep in mind Tesla's auto business and Tesla's energy business both make sense without regulatory pressure or incentives. While the Supreme Court's decision on the EPA does affect renewables on whole and is somewhat bad news, it does not impact Tesla significantly.

Unless the current energy crisis miraculously vanishes, the demand for Tesla products is going to continue to be super strong.

 

[Singuy]

Wait what? Nothing you said is even remotely true.

You clearly haven't seen the demos so i will give you the benefit of doubt that you are not just blatantly spreading misinformation on purpose because first:

1. The hardware/lidar doesn't cost tens of thousands of dollars
2. It is better than EAP because it does city driving.
3. It does make turns.
4. It does do unprotected turns.
5. It DOESN'T just go in straight line and does MORE than change lanes.
6. There are dozens of un-cut video of Huawei's ADS system and I just posted one.

If you understand Chinese, this is the customer version of the car which only does EAP stuff. We are comparing apples to apples right? Or are we comparing some car you can't buy vs a car you can buy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Its called Democracy. The system that is imperfect, yet is better than anything else. Humans are also imperfect.

In this case, the court said that Congress must explicitly either legislate a change in energy policy, or explicitly delegate an agency to craft such. They didn’t like that the EPA could de facto change US energy policy based on an unrelated statute, Ie. Clean air rules. So, up to Congress to hammer out a compromise, and/or the electorate to vote based on this issue.

The EPA shouldn't protect air quality?

This ruling is purely to protect legacy coal's last few gasps and set the bar lower for methane plants moving forward. Awesome! Love to see the Supreme Court make decisions who's only outcomes are dirtier air, more expensive electricity, and a few dickhole billionaires hang on for a few extra years.

 

[wipster]

Typo: Sure it wasn't $380?

No, it was $38 (post split). Would have been $190 back then. I had to check as well but it's the right number.

 

[jim0266]

with the chargers in the back of a hotel (I like those a lot less than the ones at the travel/truck stops as I feel like I'm intruding on their 'real' business - maybe my issue, curious if anyone else feels that way).

Whenever I've stopped at a hotel and I use their facility, I make it a point to speak with the front desk person. I introduce myself as a "Tesla refugee" and ask how it's gone dealing with us. It's been all positive so far. The last front desk person even invited us to come and rest in their comfy lobby with nice chairs while we charged. They also have an opportunity to make revenue on snacks and drinks they can sell to us.

While I haven't yet done this on a long trip, a non tesla-owning buddy will barter with the front desk clerk to pay ~$15 for a room that has been vacated for the morning, but yet to be cleaned, to use the shower.

 

[larmor]

The EPA shouldn't protect air quality?

This ruling is purely to protect legacy coal's last few gasps and set the bar lower for methane plants moving forward. Awesome! Love to see the Supreme Court make decisions who's only outcomes are dirtier air, more expensive electricity, and a few dickhole billionaires hang on for a few extra years.

No one’s lungs in the entire world got a chance to express their opinion. And everyone in the world shares an even one country’s excessive pollution.

No the us government should not regulate power plants. But then health insurance companies should be responsible for taking care of the side effects? And who speaks for the lungs (done in a Lorax voice)?

 

[Krugerrand]

This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.

Meh. He’s not even 30 yrs old and is an engineer. He can go out and get a job any time he wants even in another field. Do you know how much Mickey Ds is paying now to flip burgers!?

If he was middle aged with a mortgage and a family to support etc…, then it might be concerning. But right now, he either wins big or learns a life lesson and moves on.

 

[growler23]

Might just be my trips, but I can't recall a time where I've had to go more than 10 minutes off route. Most of the time it is just a stoplight or two. And I almost never actually charge 30 minutes (15-20 is common). Are you riding the charging curve or going to set percentages?

I often go to a set charge, and yes the 15-20 minutes off route has only happened once to me - but my point remains even in your admittedly rosier scenario. 10 minutes off track + 20 minute charge + 10 minutes back on route = 40 minutes, no bueno if it wasn't mealtime. An ICE vehicle on the same route probably fills in 2 minutes, and is a lot more likely to be close to a gas station to start with.
Again, I'm all in on this - made it a point to bring the Tesla on this trip, but I won't pretend we don't have a ways to go on things like road trips away from major highways.

 

[henchman24]

I often go to a set charge, and yes the 15-20 minutes off route has only happened once to me - but my point remains even in your admittedly rosier scenario. 10 minutes off track + 20 minute charge + 10 minutes back on route = 40 minutes, no bueno if it wasn't mealtime. An ICE vehicle on the same route probably fills in 2 minutes, and is a lot more likely to be close to a gas station to start with.
Again, I'm all in on this - made it a point to bring the Tesla on this trip, but I won't pretend we don't have a ways to go on things like road trips away from major highways.

You'd have a lot faster charging if you rode the lower percentages on the battery and get just enough to get to the next stop. Provided you aren't taking a break to eat.

Most places are less than 5 minutes off the main roads... if that. Similar to most gas stations. Some are out of the way, but some gas stations are too. And it takes longer than 2 minutes to fill most vehicles. I've never owned a Prius so can't speak there. But my trackday Miata takes ~4-5 minutes by the time you activate the pump, pump and get out... and it is a tiny tank (routinely fills less than 10 gallons). My wife's Jeep has a larger tank and is capless (so the venting is terrible and typically can't hit max flow rates)... it isn't uncommon for a 7-8 minute fill up. On hot days it can be over 10 because the capless system for MOPAR vehicles sucks (I could really rant on those). The real difference between stop is about ~10 minutes... maybe 15. 15 is more likely with V1/V2 chargers and 10 is more likely with V3.

Recently my wife and I took her Grand Cherokee on a trip (filled with dogs and camping equipment... so not ideal for my 3). Comparatively it was a far worse experience... even to the point where she commented on it. In which I told her to just give up the Jeep for a Y.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems it's damage report day - like rounding the battle wounded after a heavy blow, already planning our next battle. I'm game.

Still up 3x from TSLA entry few years back (and after spending a bunch), I'm now down about 45% from my all-time peak. Leverage was very low, mostly in shares thankfully. I had a call expire on me last month, it was still alive, so now I have 7k in my account wondering if I should consider a long shot. I think there will be more opportunities as I feel like some bubbles in real estate are gonna pop soon (I watched that analyst clip posted earlier).

OTOH, I also have a hunch that when Monroe opens up the 4680 Austin Y, there will be some bread crumbs followed by some more leaks, and something all triggered by Elon's first tweet in weeks. Those low-ball Puts (shared on Max Pain, for 22nd July) are gonna get swallowed up alive (in my mind). There are just too many positive catalysts to feel nervous about owning the best company on the planet. Tesla will now demonstrate what real growth looks like when systems are lean throughout the supply chain, and the mission gets real for everyone on this ship.

 

[Gigapress]

This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.

Thank you for your concern, but I am a cockroach financially. I've been living in one of the most expensive cities in the world for $25k per year. The most expensive thing I own is my barbell equipment. I could go work at my neighborhood Chipotle and save 20-30% of the income easily.

I can also get another engineering job as @Krugerrand pointed out. My knowledge and skills have increased in retirement because I've been using the time to learn.

Tesla has positive cashflow now, and it's growing fast. I can't generate a realistic pessimistic scenario where Tesla earns less than $25 per share next year. How low can the current P/E ratio get? Even at 20x, that's a $500 share price, more than enough to enable me to pay off the margin debt and eat losses on all of the calls.

The crash and burn scenario for my TSLA investment still leaves me with net assets that exceed those of the majority of Americans in my age bracket. These are 1st World problems. I have comfortable shelter, I'm well-fed, I'm healthy and no one is trying to kill me. Everything beyond that is a bonus. That's fundamentally why I'm remaining calm in this market crash. What I'm actually worried about is global ecological collapse, so I'm aggressively applying almost all my economic power to help mitigate that risk and encouraging others richer than I am to do the same. Hence why I'm posting here in this forum with apparently at least $1 billion in total assets.

The vast majority of what Tesla is doing is not driven by regulatory requirements or regulatory pressures.

Very important to keep in mind Tesla's auto business and Tesla's energy business both make sense without regulatory pressure or incentives. While the Supreme Court's decision on the EPA does affect renewables on whole and is somewhat bad news, it does not impact Tesla significantly.

Unless the current energy crisis miraculously vanishes, the demand for Tesla products is going to continue to be super strong.

The EPA could literally delete all emissions regulation and energy policy and I'd barely need to adjust my financial model.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Typo: Sure it wasn't $380?

Pre-split chart from May 22, 2019: (so divide by 5 to get $38.546)

Cheers!

 

[Ogre]

Might just be my trips, but I can't recall a time where I've had to go more than 10 minutes off route. Most of the time it is just a stoplight or two. And I almost never actually charge 30 minutes (15-20 is common). Are you riding the charging curve or going to set percentages?

I have had to deviate quite far a few times.

There are corridors near me where I frequently out-and-back and Superchargers are quite scarce. If I pop over to the coast and spend a couple of days near Yachats, I'm in the middle of a charging desert and have to drive up to Lincoln City. (They are installing a charger closer soon!). Similarly, if I have a full day along Highway 58 or Highway 126, or huge swaths of eastern Oregon, Superchargers are few and far between. They work fine if you are passing through, but if you are doing an out and back or linger for a few days, you are kind of stuck going well off course.

All of this is exacerbated by the fact that I often have 2 bikes on the back of the car. If I didn't have bikes destroying my range; if I had my Cybertruck and could tuck the bikes inside; if I could use Electrify America chargers; or if there were just 3 more well placed Superchargers it wouldn't be an issue.

Really... if I had access to CCS chargers... that would add just enough extra fill-in locations to make most of this go away.

 

[ZeApelido]

Jordan, from the Limiting Factor, who goes very deep into technical things just posted a video about his 4680 cell tear down.

Great video, but Youtube / Google needs to work on their voice-to-text translation skills.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Something wildly positive in Business Insider. Up is the new down!

(don't click the link if you can help it, these people are scum)

Basically.....it's cheaper to rent and charge an M3, than just to fuel a Camry.

An Uber driver says she ditched her Toyota for a Tesla because her Camry cost $600 a week to fuel compared with $450 for leasing and charging a Model 3

Uber driver Heidi Barnes told Bloomberg the cost of a tank of gas for her Camry had shot up from $60 to $100.

www.businessinsider.com