Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

I can’t control the macros. If the macros pop up 5% then that changes things for obvious reasons. I have zero clue how anyone is happy about TSLA vastly underperforming it’s beta today after an entire quarter of wall st bashing the hell out of Tesla’s image

But even with the Nasdaq up 4%, not even remotely difficult for MM’s to keep the stock in check. In fact, I’ll say TSLA still closes at 805 for the week even with the macros rallying. MM’s can cap TSLA on a day where the Nasdaq is up 4%? They can easily walk it down from 822 to 805 over the next two days

I appreciate the frustration/ disappointment as I share it. For me, it's driven by my inability to predict lows and so I have share purchases as high as $1,164 when I was sure we were about to see $1,500... While I am not worried about those being green soon, it really forces me to be frustrated by the poor reflection of value. I've certainly bought more on the way down, but my $1,164 shares drive my non-logical emotions that want to see full beta at least until all my recent purchases are green. It's just requiring mountains more patience than my May 2013 shares currently do .

 

[insaneoctane]

Hmm… GM $1.7 billion. Ford $667m

1.7 + 0.667 = $2.367b

Tesla Net Income $2.3b

View attachment 833483

Close enough to use in conversation... "Tesla basically demonstrated as much net profit as Ford and GM combined for Q2 and it's only going to get worse for legacy..."

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lol, I'm negotiating a sale with the Tesla App. (Dojo, is that you?)

I declined the Trade-in and it responded with adjusted terms (and made interesting noises for status updates and party time confetti. )
I think I'm more amused by their process. I wonder if I can change the delivery date to get the human back involved re terms. This App is clearly designed for max efficiency and expediency.

Oh... the future is coming fast people.

 

[Ogre]

Close enough to use in conversation... "Tesla basically demonstrated as much net profit as Ford and GM combined for Q2 and it's only going to get worse for legacy..."

Yep… and this was a particularly crappy quarter for Tesla. It wasn’t like they lucked into a big windfall.

I think Ford had to write down some of their Rivian losses, but Tesla had plenty of one-time issues as well.

Next couple quarters are going to be interesting. Very solid chance Tesla’s net income will be higher than Ford and GM combined for calendar 2022 and every year going forward.

 

[Cattledog]

I appreciate the frustration/ disappointment as I share it. For me, it's driven by my inability to predict lows and so I have share purchases as high as $1,164 when I was sure we were about to see $1,500... While I am not worried about those being green soon, it really forces me to be frustrated by the poor reflection of value. I've certainly bought more on the way down, but my $1,164 shares drive my non-logical emotions that want to see full beta at least until all my recent purchases are green. It's just requiring mountains more patience than my May 2013 shares currently do .

Empathy and sympathy. We have most of our shares from 2011/12, so yahoo, but as my avatar sort of reveals, we are building a house in Colorado - thank you Elon. Starting last month. So some of the $$ is going to that, and from November-March while there were fluctuations, it was generally all good. Then April-June happened, and my anxiety tripled. We are financing part of the house now to minimize the sales in the short term, but we need to fund the first third as that is the way construction loans work, which is the next 6 months. So...

...go TSLA, right now!!!

 

[ZachF]

Close enough to use in conversation... "Tesla basically demonstrated as much net profit as Ford and GM combined for Q2 and it's only going to get worse for legacy..."

When the full year totals come, Tesla probably will make more profit than GM and Ford combined FWIW.

 

[CLK350]

View attachment 833531

Makes sense...Lamborghini is the leader in EV's..oh wait...that was GM. My bad!

Not a bad move - could be intro of Apple getting the Audi eTron EV tech - (Lambo is owned by Audi group).

Still a looong way to production, maybe Apple is betting on battery tech from CATL, LG and Samsung coming together sometime in ... 2025 - taking a cue also from Tesla's Giga factories and IDRA casting might be a viable alternative to Tesla, esp if they also come to their senses and get a deal with Tesla to license their FSD suite.

 

[ZachF]

Next couple quarters are going to be interesting. Very solid chance Tesla’s net income will be higher than Ford and GM combined for calendar 2022 and every year going forward.

Tesla will pass Toyota as the most profitable automaker sometime next year, IMHO.

Not too long after that it will make more profit than all the other automakers combined, just like Apple with smartphones.

 

[Singuy]

META's guidance is pretty light. Flies in the face of Microsoft's. Next up tomorrow, Apple.

Qcom guided for soft 2H from phone segment, so...lets hope Apple doesn't follow.

 

[Cattledog]

Tesla will pass Toyota as the most profitable automaker sometime next year, IMHO.

Not too long after that it will make more profit than all the other automakers combined, just like Apple with smartphones.

And hopefully then we won't have to discuss valuation, but I doubt it.

 

[Gigapress]

A full quarter has passed since Elon answered a question from Alex Potter of Piper Sandler on the last earnings call about a new compensation plan for him with the 2018 plan almost completed:

Alex Potter:
Second question, obviously the higher profitability you guys have been able to experience over the last couple quarters, a lot of that is reflecting sort of “real” improvements. Another part of it is because we’re no longer paying you, Elon, as much as we were. And so I’m wondering, the extent to which you and the board are in the process of contemplating another one of these long-term compensation packages, which in the past, have seemed to work out quite well. Thanks.


Elon Musk:
There are no discussions currently underway for incremental compensation for me.

This short answer gave me the impression that Elon does not want to have any more compensation for his work as Tesla CEO. It seems from this and his own comments in recent interviews and on Twitter that he just wants to be useful to civilization.

This was one of the most underappreciated nuggets of information in that call, because the 2018 CEO Performance Award will have given Elon 12% of the equity as of 2018, plus it cost us payroll tax too, so this was basically an announcement that over 12% of Tesla’s cost structure has expired with no plans for renewal.

For Q2, there was no mention of another CEO compensation plan on the call, in the Q2 earnings deck and in the 10-Q even though they know they'll hit the maximum remaining target of $175B annualized revenue by around Q4 '23 or Q1 '24. This makes it incrementally more likely that Elon really won’t be getting another compensation plan and the rate of dilution of other shareholders will decline dramatically.

 

[MC3OZ]

Patience, same situation as me but Martin Viecha (head of Tesla IR) confirmed it will take longer to get verified since it's manual work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552038423887634432

Well the good news is, one more job for Teslabot

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seeing some reports that EV credits are in fact part of that new Congress bill

 

[GOVA]

Not a bad move - could be intro of Apple getting the Audi eTron EV tech - (Lambo is owned by Audi group).

Still a looong way to production, maybe Apple is betting on battery tech from CATL, LG and Samsung coming together sometime in ... 2025 - taking a cue also from Tesla's Giga factories and IDRA casting might be a viable alternative to Tesla, esp if they also come to their senses and get a deal with Tesla to license their FSD suite.

Every time Apple EV car comes up, me thinks this is a very good way for Apple to go bankrupt.

They have nothing on the table in terms of automotive production. Nothing.

 

[MC3OZ]

That isn't true. All of the electronics, contactors, etc. that are in the "penthouse" section of the battery pack are serviceable. And they are what fails most often.

Sure, if a cell goes bad, the pack has to be replaced. But that is true of ALL Tesla packs. Not a single Tesla designed pack can be repaired after a cell goes bad.

Gruber Motors do disconnect single cells as a kind of repair for original Roadster packs and now Model S packs.

The only way a structural battery pack could ever be repaired is if there is some magic solvent that dissolves all of the foam. Even then it doesn't seem like a job those outside Tesla could do, So structural packs would all go straight to the recycler.

I did speculate in the engineering thread that 4680 cells might be self-fusing, Perhaps there is some way a bad cell in a structural pack can be detected and disconnected without needing to open up the pack. I admit the odds of that being true are very low.

 

[willow_hiller]

Seeing some reports that EV credits are in fact part of that new Congress bill

I can't find the Bloomberg report that Gary is screenshotting here, but they're reporting "multiple EV credits."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552431632304717824

 

[Sparky4life]

If your Model 3 is from the first half of 2018, make sure you get a very large premium for the “orange glass” roof!

Mine is from July 2018. The top piece has the orange tint but the back piece does not. I must have caught it just as they were making the transition!

 

[Ogre]

So Toyota runs out of EV rebate eligibility.

Manchin steps up to the negotiating table again.

How long before we see the EV rebate get raised up again? I’m betting plug in hybrids will continue to be treated exceptionally well if they do.

Well that didn’t take long at all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552433986915684353

 

[Sparky4life]

Way too early to say.

It’s never too early to speculate

 

[Accident]

Here’s the Bloomberg article about the EV tax credit.

Senate Deal Includes EV Tax Credits Sought by Tesla, Toyota