Yeah, though are those conservative ex-workers still do the same now with all of the climate-change-fueled events going on?
Sorry, I might be really naive.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah, though are those conservative ex-workers still do the same now with all of the climate-change-fueled events going on?
Sorry, I might be really naive.
When I bought my car I thought of 3 possible timeframes too keep the car:
- 4 years: sell the car when it is still worth something
- 15 to 20 years: drive the car until the wheels fall off, in order the spread the purchase cost over as much years as possible
- 8 years: sell the car by the time the drive train warranty expires, in order to avoid the risk of expensive repairs
When I bought my Model S in 2016 the car was so far ahead of the competition that I didn’t think technology advances might be the main reason to sell. But here we are in 2022, and a new Model S has the following advances I’m interested in:
- 600 to 650km range instead 350 mainly because of efficiency reasons: roughly 180Wh/km instead of 220km
— I would lose free supercharging, but I charge >80% at home, so total charging cost wouldn’t change a lot
— much higher second hand prices for old Model S’s, certainly if they have free supercharging (electricity may approach 1 euro/kWh this winter in Europe)
— longer range is mainly useful on location on holiday, to avoid dealing with the different charge cards that seem to be needed everywhere. There are now so many supercharger location that extra range is not needed to reach your holiday destination
- new autopilot being much more functional than autopilot v1
- better infotainment
- smart card instead of key fob, phone as key
- much better active suspension
- native CSS support (hopefully, to be confirmed)
- better climate control
- better noise isolation
- better seats
So I’ll probably sell my Model S before it‘s 8 years old, and the drive train warranty expiration will only be a minor reason amongst a lot of tech reasons.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Personally I don't take any special precautions when I'm in either USA or Brazil, or Mexico for that matter.
The Isaac Asimov book that laid all this out was The Naked Sun. And while that book was a sequel, it reads just fine if you read it first (It was the first Asimov book I read actually). IMHO, the book still holds up well now, 65 years later, which isn’t something you can often say about early sci-fi.
It is set in a world that is the end game of a fully robotized society. 20,000 humans occupy a distant planet, each with huge robot workforces to do all the mining, food production, building, etc. There are very few human experts in anything since the robots do everything. Needless to say it has profound societal consequences.
Elon is no doubt counting on FSD being solved which will make ASP largely irrelevant. Right now we have an economy where people buy vacation homes and then rent them out most of the time. Only the ultra rich buy a vacation home and leave it empty most of the time. Same thing will happen with cars once you have FSD (it is happening now already to some extent).
So, here's where we are this Saturday morning with the Investment Relief Act -
The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that the energy/climate provisions of the act are warranted within the boundaries of reconcilliation, so that will remain in the current bill to be voted on starting later today.
"The Senate is set to convene at noon on Saturday, with the pivotal vote to move forward on the bill expected later in the afternoon. Democrats also received some good news overnight when the parliamentarian ruled that the bill’s energy provisions, including electric vehicle tax credits and a bonus tax credit to encourage clean energy developers to pay the prevailing wage, cleared Senate budget rules.
“The Finance Committee’s clean energy tax package adheres to Senate rules, and important provisions to ensure our clean energy future is built in America have been approved by the parliamentarian,” Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said in a statement. “I’m especially pleased that our prevailing wage provisions were approved. These provisions guarantee wage rates for clean energy projects. Clean energy jobs will be good-paying jobs.”"
"Some budget experts had surmised that certain conditions placed on the electric vehicle tax credits, including restrictions on where car battery materials must be sourced, ran afoul of the budget rules guiding the process that Democrats are using to pass their bill with a simple majority and evade a filibuster.
Under the current proposal, a car is only eligible for full credit if the batteries were made with materials from the U.S. or countries that have trade agreements with the U.S. — a requirement that some experts argue will make it very difficult to obtain the tax credit.
But those provisions can apparently remain in the package — a decision likely to please Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who wanted the restrictions in order to curb the electric vehicle industry’s reliance on China."
So, what's next?
"Saturday’s procedural hurdle, once cleared by Democrats, will trigger up to 20 hours of debate evenly divided by both Democrats and Republicans. But both sides aren’t expected to use their full time.
Rather, senators are likely eager to get started with a marathon amendment process known as vote-a-rama, in which the GOP will mount a series of politically tricky votes for Democrats in the hopes of amending the party-line package more than a year in the making. The Senate must endure the amendment marathon before Democrats can finally approve it."
source: Dems near pivotal vote with climate agenda intact, prescription-drug plan dinged
(ughh, Politico - sorry!)
The Senate Parliamentarian has ruled that the energy/climate provisions of the act are warranted within the boundaries of reconcilliation, so that will remain in the current bill to be voted on starting later today.
"The Senate is set to convene at noon on Saturday, with the pivotal vote to move forward on the bill expected later in the afternoon. Democrats also received some good news overnight when the parliamentarian ruled that the bill’s energy provisions, including electric vehicle tax credits and a bonus tax credit to encourage clean energy developers to pay the prevailing wage, cleared Senate budget rules.
“The Finance Committee’s clean energy tax package adheres to Senate rules, and important provisions to ensure our clean energy future is built in America have been approved by the parliamentarian,” Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said in a statement. “I’m especially pleased that our prevailing wage provisions were approved. These provisions guarantee wage rates for clean energy projects. Clean energy jobs will be good-paying jobs.”"
"Some budget experts had surmised that certain conditions placed on the electric vehicle tax credits, including restrictions on where car battery materials must be sourced, ran afoul of the budget rules guiding the process that Democrats are using to pass their bill with a simple majority and evade a filibuster.
Under the current proposal, a car is only eligible for full credit if the batteries were made with materials from the U.S. or countries that have trade agreements with the U.S. — a requirement that some experts argue will make it very difficult to obtain the tax credit.
But those provisions can apparently remain in the package — a decision likely to please Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who wanted the restrictions in order to curb the electric vehicle industry’s reliance on China."
So, what's next?
"Saturday’s procedural hurdle, once cleared by Democrats, will trigger up to 20 hours of debate evenly divided by both Democrats and Republicans. But both sides aren’t expected to use their full time.
Rather, senators are likely eager to get started with a marathon amendment process known as vote-a-rama, in which the GOP will mount a series of politically tricky votes for Democrats in the hopes of amending the party-line package more than a year in the making. The Senate must endure the amendment marathon before Democrats can finally approve it."
source: Dems near pivotal vote with climate agenda intact, prescription-drug plan dinged
(ughh, Politico - sorry!)
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Perhaps this is what's behind all the retail investor pandering and "don't forget to vote" effort?
Tesla has no real debt and is printing money at a rate where they'll be invincible from Jan 2023 onward. Maybe Elon is going to combine all efforts under X.....and he means ALL efforts. SpaceX, Starlink(separately), Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, Twitter, Boring, Neuralink, OpenAI, etc.
SpaceX just did another major raise. What's to keep SpaceX from taking a $20B stake in Twitter and then the whole thing gets combined next fall?
I don't know about you, but I'd much rather have 1/2 a share in X than 1 in TSLA.
Yeah, I’ve been upgrading mostly to get the new tech. But what surprised me is that in this environment, the very high prices I am getting for the used cars makes it a no brainer economically.
Won’t happen. The individual companies would be valued higher individually rather than combined.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Renewables backed by grid level and distributed storage are now cheaper and far superior to legacy options. Their conservative(or selfish if you like) attitude fits perfectly into a plan to transition as quickly as us physically possible.
At this point I think we're pushing way too hard to change people's minds and that gap is just the opportunity fossil interests need to sew doubt and keep renewables markets inefficient.
Your conservative ex-coworker is already doing his job to speed transition in this phase. I would argue you're not doing yours(we're not doing ours).
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I what way? Automotive is already underpriced. SpaceX is private. Those two alone would attract $2T at a combined IPO 12 months from now.
Or perhaps it'll all be pseudo-private.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
We really need another category for OTA recalls.
For Tesla only 7,311 were physically recalled to the service center. 2,250,339 were fixed with over the air updates. This is right from the NHTSA website. The majority were really silly and just had to do with the noise made by pedestrian warning speaker.
All of the Ford recalls start with "Dealer will perform" so I assume no OTA.
www.wsj.com
For Tesla only 7,311 were physically recalled to the service center. 2,250,339 were fixed with over the air updates. This is right from the NHTSA website. The majority were really silly and just had to do with the noise made by pedestrian warning speaker.
All of the Ford recalls start with "Dealer will perform" so I assume no OTA.
At Ford, Quality Is Now Problem 1
Ford used to tout the reliability of its vehicles in ads. After a string of recalls, the auto maker is trying to change how it finds problems.
www.wsj.com
IMO, India made a mistake of a lifetime by not cooperating with Tesla.
Stating the obvious and ending with “a tall order” is completely useless. Obviously is hard, otherwise someone would have done it already.
In addition, after seeing how much production Tesla has been able to squeeze out of Freemont alone they might need to build 'only' 3-4 gigas more.
The incredible production improvement along with constant new developments might make this possible.
I really dispise folks who just plug in the numbers based on old trends and sell it as some sort of discovery without using their brains for a bit. Whomever that tfitter guy is he's a tool.
Look, you and I think Tesla is underpriced, but that doesn’t mean the market does. You proposed combining everything into one giant public company. What you and I think it is worth is meaningless, as we don’t have $1T hanging around to invest in it. People already have a hard time valuing a pretty straight forward auto manufacturer. Combine in a bunch of speculative investments (and a failing social media company!) and it won’t get any better.
I do agree that SpaceX (and only SpaceX) might fetch more as a public company today than its current $100B or so valuation, but there’s no guarantee even on that. Regardless, it is moot. Unless Elon changes his mind, it will stay private, with only Starlink being spun out at a very rich valuation once it is in sight of cash flow maturity.
Billionaire villas in the mountains of Antarctica?
lafrisbee
Active Member
I know more than one of you has looked back at the data from the last stock split, and overlayed it onto the coming one. Would you guys mind talking about what you think is going to happen in the next 2-3 weeks in relation to the split and stock price movement?
I missed a huge part of the increase because I was so so new to the stock market. I got caught by the "3 day rule". I traded a day too soon to be outside the rule and was put in "Time Out" for 3 days. Unfortunately it was 4 days before the stock was to split. I lost about 20% while in trader's jail. and even worse I got out just a day before the split. As soon as I was able to I jumped completely back in. At which time the market dropped about 10% for the day...
So my mind is still suffering PTSD and I can't remember how it all went down.
I missed a huge part of the increase because I was so so new to the stock market. I got caught by the "3 day rule". I traded a day too soon to be outside the rule and was put in "Time Out" for 3 days. Unfortunately it was 4 days before the stock was to split. I lost about 20% while in trader's jail. and even worse I got out just a day before the split. As soon as I was able to I jumped completely back in. At which time the market dropped about 10% for the day...
So my mind is still suffering PTSD and I can't remember how it all went down.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
My small part for Q3 margins:
Elon seemed pretty confident that FSD Beta would be in wide release by the end of the year, and I'm pretty sure the price will jump at that point. Making sure I get my FSD Computer retrofit installed so I'm ready when it happens!
Elon seemed pretty confident that FSD Beta would be in wide release by the end of the year, and I'm pretty sure the price will jump at that point. Making sure I get my FSD Computer retrofit installed so I'm ready when it happens!
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'd rephrase that like this
To make 20 million cars in 2030 Tesla will need to have completed 12 giga factories by 2028 to allow time to ramp.
To open in 2028, that last one needs to have started construction in 2026 at the latest.
They have close enough to 4 gigafactories now (China, Germany, Austin, (Fremont+Sparks) is about 3.x and I'll round up.
So Tesla needs to start building 8 new gigafactoires in the next 4 years. Not as tall an order as he suggests, but still a huge undertaking that will be impressive to watch.
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